美国7月非农就业报告公布后，美国2至7年期国债收益率日内下跌至少10个基点。现货黄金累计拉升约 30美元，现报3344美元/盎司。美元指数累计下跌约100点，现报99.23。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the release of employment data, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note fell to a one-month low of 3.8% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the two-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment regarding interest rates and economic outlook [1]

智通财经8月1日电，美国2至7年期国债收益率日内下跌至少10个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields continued to decline following the release of the employment report, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 14 basis points to 3.813% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the two-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment following economic data [1] - The employment report may have influenced market expectations regarding future interest rate movements [1] - A decrease in Treasury yields often reflects increased demand for safer assets, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond has decreased by 12 basis points, reaching 3.83% [1]

英国国债开盘走低，10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至4.62%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Core Points - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 3.095% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term Japanese government debt [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].

周四（7月31日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率跌3.4个基点，报4.569%，7月份累计上涨8.0个基 点，7月1-2日上涨，剩余时间里持续高位宽幅震荡。 两年期英债收益率跌1.5个基点，报3.861%，7月份累涨4.4个基点。 30年期英债收益率跌3.9个基点，报5.376%，7月份累涨9.7个基点；50年期英债收益率跌2.8个基点，报 4.785%，7月份累涨15.5个基点。 2/10年期英债收益率利差跌2.015个基点，报+70.015个基点，7月份累涨3.975个基点。 ...