瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure has prompted the Trump administration to consider multiple candidates for his successor, with a focus on someone who aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Succession Planning - Trump has indicated he has "two or three top candidates" in mind to replace Powell but has not disclosed their names [1]. - Discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of appointing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to serve simultaneously as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, which would break a long-standing tradition [1]. - Powell's potential continuation in his role has led to speculation about the administration's approach to selecting a successor who would be compliant with Trump's policies [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve is more sensitive than usual, with Powell's silence on his future causing frustration among Trump's advisors [2][3]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve Board is limited, as current board member Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, providing only one opportunity to fill a vacancy before Powell's term ends [2]. - The nomination of a new chairman requires Senate approval, and the narrow Republican majority means Trump can afford to lose only three votes [3]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - If Powell remains on the Board, he can still influence interest rate decisions through the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 19 members [4]. - The potential new chairman's influence on monetary policy is uncertain, especially if the candidate is not from the current Board [4]. - Powell's established loyalty among current Board members may provide him with leverage, regardless of who succeeds him [4].

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特当天在新闻发布会上表示，特朗普将图表发给了美联储。 7月1日，特朗普在总统专机"空军一号"上表示，对于下一任美联储主席，他有"两个或三个人选"，但没 有提供更多信息。 新华社北京7月2日电 综述｜特朗普频繁施压美联储 鲍威尔坚持货币政策"非政治化" 新华社记者刘轶芳 美国总统特朗普本周连续发声，要求美国联邦储备委员会进一步降息，并以下一任美联储主席人选的话 题对现任主席鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔回应称，美联储货币政策必须"完全非政治"，重申央行仍在观察美国 关税带来的影响，而后再进一步决策。 特朗普6月30日在他的社交媒体平台上发布一张图表，声称美国是全球关键利率水平最高的央行之一。 特朗普还在该图表上手写评论，批评鲍威尔让美国损失数以千亿计美元，称"你应该大幅降低利率"，并 在图表中将美国应设利率标注在1%左右位置。特朗普在贴文中称，美联储"应该为自己允许这种情况发 生在美国而感到羞耻"。 高盛日前上调美国2025年利率预测，预计9月、10月和12月将分别降息25个基点，原因是关税影响减弱 和劳动力市场疲软。花旗集团和富国银行也预计美联储将在2025年降息75个基点，瑞银预测降息100个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is becoming a central battleground in U.S. politics and economics, influenced by President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the complexities of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75%, criticizing the current leadership for being slow and costing the U.S. economy "hundreds of billions" [3]. - The current policy rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than Trump's target, with Fed officials emphasizing that policy decisions should be data-driven [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain its independence from political pressures [5]. Group 2: Transition Planning for Fed Leadership - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is preparing for the transition of the Fed chair position after Powell's term ends in May 2026, aiming for a smooth nomination process in late 2025 [6][8]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair include current Fed Governor Waller, who is familiar with monetary policy frameworks [7]. - The government plans to follow traditional procedures for the nomination process, contrasting with Trump's high-profile pressure tactics [8]. Group 3: Economic Data as Decision-Making Factors - Key economic data from July to August will be critical for the Fed's decision-making, including employment reports and inflation data [10]. - If employment data indicates a cooling labor market, it may open the door for a rate cut in September [10]. - The upcoming tariff policy decisions will also significantly impact inflation expectations and the Fed's approach [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict over interest rates has evolved into a broader debate about the Fed's independence, with potential implications for economic stability [11]. - If summer data supports a rate cut, tensions may ease; however, persistent inflation could exacerbate conflicts between the White House and the Fed, affecting market stability [11]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor key economic data and Fed officials' statements for signals of policy shifts [11].

沃勒和鲍曼均为特朗普第一任期任命的理事，其中鲍曼刚被提名为监管副主席，沃勒更是传闻中的下任主席候选人。一位华尔街分析师直言："这像是递给 白宫的投名状。" 上午8：30，经济数据雪片般飞来。美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.7%，超出预期；然而个人消费支出环比下滑0.1%，收入更暴跌0.4%——这是年初 以来最大降幅。 华盛顿的夏夜闷热难耐，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔擦去额头的汗水，面对国会山议员们尖锐的提问。仅仅24小时前，他在这里坚称"当前不降息是合适 的"，话音未落，总统特朗普的怒火已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到3个百分点！" 这场公开对决如同一颗投入金融市场的震撼弹，拉开了6月28日这个动荡交易日的序幕。 凌晨1：00，芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕闪烁着最新预测：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性飙升至90%以上。市场刚刚消化了前一日 美联储高层的分裂立场——两位拥有投票权的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可能降息；但随后十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 美联储点阵图暴露了内部裂痕：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。这种近乎对立 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price opened strong on July 1, with a price of $3316.19 per ounce, reflecting a 0.41% increase, driven by a rebound above the 60-day moving average and a weakening US dollar index [1] - The market is currently cautious, awaiting significant data releases such as the non-farm payrolls, which may limit bullish momentum [1] - The ongoing pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve, along with concerns about tariffs and inflation, creates a complex landscape for US monetary policy, potentially affecting market confidence and economic stability [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a low of $3274.57 before rebounding to stabilize above the $3300 mark, indicating a short-term bullish trend [5] - The current trading strategy suggests monitoring the $3300 level as a support point, with upward targets at $3328 and $3345, while also considering potential short positions if resistance is encountered [5] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach to trading, advocating for a balanced strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies within the established price range [5]

受美联储降息预期支撑 黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高 金十数据7月1日讯，受美联储降息预期支撑，黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高。Kudotrade分析师Konstantinos Chrysikos表示："在收益率低迷和鸽派预期的背景下，黄金可能获得支撑。市场预计美国今年下半年将 实施三次降息，这可能为黄金等非生息资产提供支撑。" Chrysikos补充道，对美联储独立性的担忧也可 能推动投资者转向贵金属。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Morgan Stanley's report dampens market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July and September, citing strong inflation data and robust employment reports as key factors [2] - The report indicates that the support for rate cuts is weak, with seven policymakers predicting no cuts this year, contrasting with ongoing pressure from Trump [2] Group 2: Trump's Trade Policies - Trump's erratic behavior has become a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy, with conflicting signals regarding tariff extensions [4] - The potential for new tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft is under close scrutiny, raising concerns about the impact on global trade [6] Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and potentially leading to friction between the government and the central bank [8] - The rise of protectionism and trade fragmentation is exacerbating the decline in economic growth and productivity, posing urgent threats to growth, inflation, and financial stability [8] Group 4: Economic Forecasts and Market Reactions - A survey indicates that over 90% of economists are concerned about Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, with predictions of rising U.S. federal debt [11] - Following the announcement of tariffs, global stock markets experienced volatility, and the dollar depreciated, leading to expectations that 10-year Treasury yields could exceed 5% by mid-next year [11] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve has raised alarms among former officials, warning that it could lead to market chaos and undermine the Fed's credibility [13] - The potential for increased borrowing costs and capital flight from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries could challenge the Fed's ability to manage economic stability [13] Group 6: Future Economic Uncertainty - If Trump opts for reciprocal tariffs instead of extensions, both the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting policies will face greater uncertainty, leading to a more severe global economic test [15]

Group 1 - Central bank leaders are gathering in Sintra, Portugal, to discuss the potential decline of the dollar-centric monetary system amid global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [1] - The discussion will focus on how to formulate monetary policy in an uncertain environment, particularly in light of President Trump's protectionist policies [1] - Investors are looking for insights from the upcoming forum, especially from key figures like Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde [1] Group 2 - Any signs of threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve could undermine the dollar's status as the preferred currency for global trade, savings, and investment [2] - Concerns about potential successors to Powell who may align more closely with Trump's wishes could further shake market confidence [2] - The dollar has recently fallen to a near four-year low against the euro, trading at 1.17 [2] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde is in a unique position to promote the euro as a stable alternative amid the dollar's challenges, marking a potential "euro moment" [3] - Despite previous pessimism about the euro, economists stress that the EU must deepen integration in finance, economy, and military to elevate the euro's global standing [3] - A recent OMFIF survey indicates that 16% of central banks plan to increase their euro holdings in the next 12-24 months, although demand remains lower than for gold [3] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about interest rate hikes due to expectations surrounding U.S. tariffs [4] - The Bank of Korea may be forced to end its easing cycle due to a sudden rise in the real estate market [4] - The Bank of England is assessing whether signs of a slowing labor market can alleviate inflationary pressures from rapid wage growth [4]

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 贵金属周度报告：国际金价短线承压，银价上涨不可持续 2025年06月30日 6月23日-6月29日 • 招商期货 徐世伟 • xushiwei@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格：F03076217 • 投资咨询：Z0001836 价格波动驱动因素 市场价格走势 市场相关重要数据 市场短期展望 目录 1.价格波动驱动因素 2025年6月23日-29日，国际黄金价格震荡驱动因素 | 时间 | 事件 | 对国际金价影响 | | --- | --- | --- | | 6月24日 | 根据中新社6月24日的报道，当天，伊朗最高国家安全委员会发布声明，宣布与以色列及其支持者 达成停火协议。而就在之前，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也公开声明，接受了美国总统特朗普提议的停 | 国际金价迅速下跌 | | | 火方案。 | | | 6月26日 | 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在考虑在 9 月或 10 月之前选择并宣布美联储 主席杰罗姆鲍威尔的继 任者。特朗普对鲍威尔的愤怒可能会导致今年夏天更早地宣布。对美联储独立性和可信度的担忧可 能会在短期内削弱美元。美联储官员仍预计今年将降息，但时间仍不确定，因 ...