Group 1 - The gold futures market experienced a significant decline due to concerns over the hawkish policy stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, leading to a strong rise in the US dollar and a sell-off in gold and silver [1][2] - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai reported a price of 1008.60 yuan per gram, reflecting a drop of 15.73%, with a trading range between 1005.40 yuan and 1154.78 yuan [1] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility driven by policy uncertainty, with future movements expected to be sensitive to the new chairman's statements during confirmation hearings and upcoming inflation data [2] Group 2 - The market's fears of aggressive tightening policies have led to a rapid decline in interest rate cut expectations, which has negatively impacted the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - A significant technical sell-off was triggered when gold prices fell below key psychological levels, exacerbating the downward trend [2] - Geopolitical risks and long-term allocation demand may provide temporary support for precious metals, but the market is expected to remain in a fragile state until a clearer policy path emerges [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night, with silver hitting the跌停, was the result of a combination of short - term news - based shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by President Trump was the direct trigger. Warsh is considered a "hawk," and his potential tenure may lead to a tightening of dollar liquidity, pressuring the prices of non - interest - bearing safe - haven assets like gold and silver. [6][24] - Gold and silver also faced significant correction pressure due to factors such as the CME's multiple increases in margin ratios for gold and silver futures, the approaching Chinese Spring Festival with overseas volatility and margin call risks, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts leading to large - scale long - position liquidation, and the large profit - taking potential after the "epic" rise in silver prices since January. [7][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price, but no detailed written description of the weekly trend is provided other than the chart. [11] 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | January 30 | January 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | 4,983.10 | - 1.52% | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | 103.26 | - 17.44% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,161.42 | 1,115.64 | 4.10% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 27,941.00 | 24,965.00 | 11.92% | | US Dollar Index | 97.12 | 97.50 | - 0.40% | | USD/Offshore RMB | 6.96 | 6.95 | 0.13% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.92 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,939.03 | 6,915.61 | 0.34% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 65.74 | 61.28 | 7.28% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 57.57 | 48.26 | 19.29% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 41.57 | 44.69 | - 6.98% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,087.10 | 1,086.53 | 0.57 | | iShare Gold ETF | 497.99 | 494.56 | 3.43 | [12] 3.2 Gold Price Reached a High and Then Declined - In the first half of the week, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below the lowest level since the second half of 2025, reflected the accelerating global de - dollarization, and the gold price showed an accelerating upward trend. [14] - In the second half of the week, the market rumor about Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next Fed Chair led to concerns about tightened dollar liquidity, which directly pressured gold and silver prices. Additionally, after the short - term sharp rise in gold prices, the strong willingness of long - position holders to take profits exacerbated the sharp decline. [14] 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 30, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs reached 1,581.09 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons from the previous week. [18] - As precious metals declined last week, the decline in silver was more significant, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from its low. Since January, the gold - silver ratio has been falling with the rise of precious metals, reaching the lowest level since 2011, which may indicate that silver was overvalued in the short term. [21] 3.4 Conclusion - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night was due to short - term news shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was the direct trigger. [24] - Gold and silver also faced significant self - correction pressure, including increased margin ratios, the approaching Spring Festival in the domestic market, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts, and the large profit - taking potential after the sharp rise in silver prices. [25]

周一开盘，金银价格继续大幅下挫，市场陷入一片恐慌。美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席的消息如同重磅炸弹，瞬间引爆 市场对鹰派政策的强烈预期，贵金属市场因此遭到恐慌性抛售。受此影响，商品黄金相关ETF甚至以跌停开盘，这一罕见景象让投资者 措手不及。 沃什的提名意味着什么？他向来以鹰派立场著称，主张紧缩货币政策。市场普遍预期，一旦他正式执掌美联储，加息步伐可能会加快， 这对黄金这一不生息资产来说无疑是重大利空。黄金价格应声暴跌，创下了近期的新低。 对于许多黄金投资者而言，这个周一无疑是"黑色星期一"。黄金ETF的跌停开盘让无数投资者措手不及，尤其是那些刚刚在高位买入的投 资者，面临着巨大的账面亏损。市场情绪极度恐慌，抛售潮此起彼伏。 黄金ETF的跌停开盘在历史上都较为罕见，这充分反映了市场对美联储政策转向的担忧。投资者们纷纷抛售黄金，转而寻求更为安全的 资产，或者干脆暂时离场观望。这种恐慌情绪的蔓延，进一步加剧了黄金价格的下跌。 凯文·沃什的提名之所以引发如此大的市场震动，主要是因为他长期以来一直被视为鹰派人物。他在担任美联储理事期间曾多次投票支持 加息，对通胀保持高度警惕。他的政策理念与现任主席鲍威尔有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板，这是短期消息 ...

近日持续飙高的贵金属出现"崩盘式"跳水，截至1月31日收盘，伦敦金报4865.35美元/盎司，下跌9.45%，《每日经济新闻》记者统计发现，这创下近40年 以来最大跌幅。 其他贵金属价格也未能幸免，白银收跌26.77%，报84.7美元/盎司，亦创下1980年年初以来的最大单日跌幅。此外，现货铂金重挫约18%，现货钯金重挫约 15%。 1月31日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者以消费者身份实地走访国内黄金珠宝交易核心的深圳水贝市场，直击金价暴跌后的市场交易实况。对于近日黄金价 格下跌，一位料商人士对记者表示：反正自己会锁仓不出。 "现在的料不好拿。"对于料商不出货，一位商家解释称，一方面是因为现在金价暴跌，另一个原因则是临近春节，料商接的料太多没办法处理。 部分料商选择暂不出货 "前天（1月29日）金价（1克）1200多元，今天1126.5元。"记者以消费者身份实地走访深圳水贝时，一位专门售卖金条的商家表示，目前金条价格是大盘 价加15元工费，金条1克到手是1141.5元，相较前天的价格下跌超过50元，当被问及今日（1月31日）价格是否还会变动时，该商家表示需等到下周 一，"今天是周末，金价不会变动"。 在黄金价格下 ...

美国总统特朗普1月30日宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，引发多家美国媒体热议。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道称，特朗普提名沃什接掌美联储，正值美联储面临数十年来最艰难的时刻之一：通胀尚未完 全遏制，政府债务不断攀升，而美联储自身也在货币政策方面承受着前所未有的直接政治压力。 美国《福布斯》杂志网站的报道称，对于普通观察者而言，沃什是一个稳妥的体制内选择，他曾是美联储官员，也是金融服务公司摩根 士丹利的资深人士。但对于关注全球独立机构衰落情况的人来说，这一选择却反映出一种熟悉而阴暗的模式，那就是当行政部门提出要 求时，一位众所周知的"鹰派"人物会转变为政治代言人。 美国《福布斯》杂志网站报道截图 美国消费者新闻与商业频道网站报道截图 报道认为，这一提名恰逢有关美联储独立性的质疑从学术讨论转为现实关切之际。特朗普及其政府官员已提出各种构想，包括加强白宫 对美联储的监督力度，以及改变美联储决定利率的方式，比如要求美联储主席在作出利率决策时需与总统进行协商。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道网站报道截图 麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·威兹曼则对CNN表示，"任何认为特朗普任命沃什 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump is seen as a hawkish choice, likely to resist balance sheet expansion, which would support the dollar and steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose, short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, while long-term yields increased, and U.S. stock index futures along with precious metal prices declined [1][4]. - The market response indicates an expectation of a more hawkish stance among Federal Reserve Chairman candidates [1][4]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, will replace Jerome Powell, who will step down on May 15, but his term as a Fed governor will continue until 2028 [2][4]. - The new chairman will need to reach a consensus on interest rate policy among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee [2][4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts express concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve due to Trump's pressure to lower borrowing costs, which could impact global borrowing costs [1][4]. - Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities notes that Warsh's nomination has led to a steepening of the yield curve, reflecting ongoing market worries about Fed independence [5]. - Zach Griffiths from CreditSights suggests that while Warsh may recognize productivity gains from AI as a reason for rate cuts, his criticism of balance sheet expansion limits the Fed's ability to manage long-term borrowing costs [5]. - Priya Misra from JPMorgan highlights that decisions regarding the balance sheet will depend on reserve levels, and other Fed members may not support any moves to reduce the balance sheet [5].

历经五个月的漫长遴选，美联储主席继任者的悬念即将尘埃落定。 特朗普最新表示，将于今晚正式公布美联储新任主席提名人选。 不过，他并未透露具体人选，只是含糊其辞地表示，不会太出人意料，而且是金融界人尽皆知的人物。 据白宫发布，特朗普将于今晚凌晨签署行政命令，并于凌晨3点参加一场政策会议。 沃什胜券在握？ 此次遴选工作自去年9月启动，最初有11名候选人入围。 此言一出，沃什当选的概率狂飙。 截至发稿，预测市场Polymarket上，沃什被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率高达94%，而第二人选里德概率仅达2.9%。 经过多轮筛选面试，名单已缩减至4人。 最终候选阵容锁定为前美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒以及贝莱德集团固定收益首席投资官里克· 里德。 遴选期间，特朗普的心仪人选几经变化。 此前哈塞特曾长期领跑，随后沃什支持率反超，里德也曾在过去数日成为热门人选。 周四，特朗普明确表示将于今晚宣布新任美联储主席，他透露"很多人认为这个人几年前就可能担任这个职位了"。 据知情人士透露，周四，特朗普与沃什会面后，又给沃什打了电话，询问他是否愿意接受这一职位，而他最终接受了。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar, driven by expectations of hawkish policies from the Bank of Japan despite a revised GDP contraction of -0.6% in Q3 [1] - October nominal wages in Japan increased by 2.6%, exceeding market expectations of 2.2%, providing key support for potential future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The ongoing rise in nominal wages is expected to enhance consumer purchasing power, potentially leading to demand-driven inflation, which will support the yen in the long term [1] Group 2 - Global market sentiment is cautious, with increased demand for safe-haven assets, highlighting the relative strength of the yen [2] - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again, which has placed downward pressure on the US dollar index [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is under pressure, with potential support around 154.35 and resistance near 155.50 [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe the recent appreciation of the yen is due to multiple factors, including stronger-than-expected wage growth, strong expectations for hawkish Bank of Japan policies, and the yen's status as a safe-haven asset amid global risk aversion [3]

Core Points - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his decision to retire early at the end of February next year, providing another opportunity for President Trump to exert influence within the Federal Reserve [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Bostic expressed a cautious stance, preferring to maintain the current interest rate levels until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target [2] - He believes the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive and that the more pressing risk is related to price stability rather than the labor market [2][3] Group 2: Leadership and Succession - Bostic has served as Atlanta Fed President for eight years and is the first Black president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in the Fed's 111-year history [3] - Following Bostic's retirement announcement, the Atlanta Fed's board will form a search committee to find his successor, which will require approval from the Washington Fed Board [3][4] Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's desire for greater control over the Fed is highlighted, as he seeks to influence interest rate decisions, particularly aiming for rate cuts [4][5] - The upcoming appointments of regional Fed presidents will be closely watched, especially as Trump may have the opportunity to select a new Fed Chair after Powell's term ends in May [4][5]