哈玛克讲话前，周四稍早，今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也在杰克逊霍尔年会现场表态，他对广泛预期的9月降息表现犹豫。 本周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话前，已有美联储官员表现出不看好下月降息的态度，似乎在给期待鲍威尔释放降息信号的人"打预防 针"。 美东时间21日周四，两名美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔年会当地接收采访。其中，明年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表 示，从现有的经济数据看，FOMC可能并不会在9月降息。她还说，如果明天就要做决定，她不会支持降息。 美股早盘尾声时，哈玛克不支持很快降息的讲话传出后，美国国债收益率集体加速上行。 基准10年期美国国债的收益率升约4.7个基点，接近4.34%，美股午盘进一步升至4.34%上方。对利率前景更敏感的2年期美债收益率升超4.6个基点，升破 3.80%，接近三周来高位。 施密德说，他并不确信美联储在降低通胀方面取得了足够的进展。他估计，通胀水平可能更接近3%而不是2%，美联储在实现2%的通胀目标方面仍有工作要 做。 施密德特别强调了实现通胀目标面对的挑战。他说："最后一英里似乎很困难，我和很多人都认为，系 ...

亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周四表示，他仍认为今年可能降息一次，与6月的预测一致，但补充称劳动 力市场走势"潜在令人担忧"，值得关注。 下任美联储主席候选人之一、前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周四呼吁今年降息1个百分点，并表示2026年 还有进一步降息空间。 "目前利率略高，我认为在2026年之前我们可以降息约100个基点——我认为这将从9月会议的降息开 始，今年晚些时候可能还会跟进，"布拉德周四在福克斯商业频道表示。 布拉德现任普渡大学商学院院长，他称已与财政部长贝森特就自己的美联储主席候选资格进行过沟通， 计划在劳动节（9月1日）后"可能"安排一次面谈。 至于明年的降息前景，布拉德表示将取决于数据表现。他还提到需要维护美元的储备地位。 相比之下，现任美联储官员的降息立场显得更加谨慎。 美国总统特朗普及其他白宫官员一直在施压美联储降息，坚称关税并未加剧通胀，且需要更低利率来提 振房地产市场、降低政府借贷成本。 "我目前大致仍持这一观点，"博斯蒂克周四在亚特兰大商会组织的活动中提及其6月预测时表示，"但我 想说，在当下，任何预测或展望都存在很大的置信区间，我不会固守任何结论。" 博斯蒂克还表示，他倾向于美联储一旦开始行 ...

中新社约翰内斯堡8月20日电 (记者 孙翔)南非统计局20日公布数据显示，7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比 上涨3.5%，高于6月的3%，符合市场预期。这一数值达到近10个月新高，降低了央行下月再次降息的可 能性。 通胀走高主要受食品价格上涨及水电费上调推动。南非市政费率通常在每年7月随新财政预算一并调 整。2025年水费上涨12.1%，远高于2024年的7.5%；2025年电费上涨10.6%，略低于2024年的11.5%。 牛津经济非洲公司高级经济学家范德林德表示，7月通胀数据略高于央行偏好的3%水平，南非在压低通 胀预期方面仍面临挑战。南非金融服务公司天达(Investec)预测，2025年底消费者价格指数同比将升至约 4.0%，随后在2026年年中回落至约3.5%。 南非央行货币政策委员会将于9月18日公布下一次调息决定。范德林德预计今年内不会再有降息举措； 而天达首席经济学家安娜贝尔·毕晓普则认为，货币政策前景仍有进一步宽松空间。她表示，如果未来 两年通胀平均维持在3.0%水平，南非储备银行可能会进一步下调利率1.25个百分点。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 南非储备银行(央行)行长卡尼亚戈在7月末调息时表 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between prioritizing the weak real estate market and the booming AI infrastructure investments [2] - Current indicators show that the Federal Reserve has not achieved its 2% inflation target, with both market and household inflation expectations lacking confidence in short-term achievement [2][3] - The labor market situation is ambiguous, with some layoffs and a slight increase in initial unemployment claims, but the overall unemployment rate remains low [2][3] Group 2 - The homebuilder confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years, with over one-third of builders reducing prices and two-thirds offering incentives to attract buyers deterred by high mortgage rates [3] - New home inventory is nearing levels not seen since the end of 2007, despite a slight increase in new home starts in July [3][4] - The "homeowner lock-in" effect is a significant issue, as homeowners with low-interest loans are reluctant to sell and face higher new loan costs, leading to a situation where the median price of existing homes has surpassed that of new homes for the first time [5] Group 3 - The influx of hundreds of billions into AI-related data centers and the expected trillion-dollar investments in the future could accelerate the demand for capital, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [6] - High interest rates have pressured housing-related income and spending, yet the Federal Reserve has not achieved its inflation target, raising questions about the potential rebound in the real estate sector if rates are lowered [6] - The Federal Reserve's policy effects typically take at least a year to manifest, suggesting that the economic conditions may differ by that time [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The director of the Economic Policy Department of the Central Bank of Brazil, Diogo Guillen, stated that it is too early to consider lowering the benchmark interest rate (Selic) during the Copom meeting [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank is still searching for the most suitable interest rate level to achieve inflation targets and will maintain this rate for a longer period once determined [1] - The current benchmark interest rate in Brazil remains at 15%, a level established in June and unchanged since the last monetary policy meeting at the end of July [1] Group 2: Market Observations - Guillen defended the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policy, noting its observable impact on credit and foreign exchange markets [1] - Since 2025, there have been no unusual trends in the foreign exchange market, with the Brazilian real performing in line with global trends against the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The global financial markets are entering a phase of uncertainty and critical decision-making, influenced by unexpected U.S. inflation data, diverging monetary policies among major central banks, and potential geopolitical impacts [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while core inflation rose by 2.7%, initially suggesting a clear path for a rate cut in September [2] - However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, with a core PPI year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating rising production costs and the reality of "tariff-induced inflation" [2][3] Group 2 - The unexpected rise in PPI, along with downward revisions in non-farm employment data, has diminished the likelihood of a September rate cut, leading to a shift in market sentiment from certainty to skepticism regarding rate cuts [3] - Risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, have been significantly impacted, reflecting their sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds, while major U.S. stock indices show signs of hesitation and differentiation [3] - Geopolitical events, such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, could have immediate effects on oil prices, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical stability on commodity markets [3] Group 3 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to be a focal point for market participants seeking policy direction, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech being particularly significant [4] - Powell's tone could either suppress rate cut expectations if he emphasizes inflation risks or provide relief to the market if he alleviates inflation concerns [4] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3%, marking it as another developed economy central bank adopting a loosening policy [5] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is under scrutiny for potential additional stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and economic growth, which could significantly impact regional currencies and global commodity markets [5] - Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the UK and Germany will provide insights into European price trends, which could influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions [5] - Global PMI data will serve as a leading indicator for assessing the health of manufacturing and service sectors, providing further context for market conditions [5] Group 5 - The complexity of inflation, particularly "tariff-induced inflation," is challenging traditional monetary policy frameworks, as central banks strive to balance inflation control, growth support, and financial stability [6] - Geopolitical events add unpredictability to the market, necessitating investor vigilance regarding policy signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and actions from various central banks [6] - The importance of flexibility in asset allocation and risk management is emphasized in the current high-volatility environment, where understanding macroeconomic trends and geopolitical dynamics is crucial for achieving stable returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week, indicating that the central bank's inflation targets have not yet been met [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week [1] - This decision reflects the ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets [1] Inflation Targets - The current inflation goals set by the Federal Reserve have not been realized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasizes that the central bank should not lower interest rates too quickly or excessively, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation is not expected to rebound persistently, with different levels of price and wage pressures observed [1] - Wage growth is projected to slow to just below 4% by the end of the year, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - There is an increased focus on the risks of second-round effects from inflation, particularly concerning food and energy prices, which are significant for consumers [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting more caution than previously anticipated, which may impact overall economic activity [1] - The risks of economic activity declining are slightly elevated, suggesting potential challenges ahead for growth [1] Inflation Targeting - The central bank is committed to taking all necessary measures to achieve a 2% inflation target, indicating a strong focus on maintaining price stability [1]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a significant decline in the labor market, suggesting a broader weakening of the U.S. economy [1] - Despite the latest employment data, there is no intention to alter decisions at the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting, as the job market still appears to be in good shape [2] - There is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts before 2025, as the gap between inflation targets and employment targets remains significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, emphasizes the importance of close communication and coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government to sustainably and stably achieve the 2% inflation target [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government aims to guide monetary policy towards a sustainable and stable realization of the inflation target [1] - The Minister highlights the necessity for collaboration between the central bank and the government to ensure effective policy implementation [1]