Investment Insights - A-shares have rebounded after tariff impacts, but the momentum has weakened, with the CSI All Share Index rising 0.3% this week, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index fell 0.23% [1] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy continues to benefit from volatile markets, gaining 0.87% this week and recording excess returns of 1.1% [1] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy is favored over overseas equity strategies and enhanced equity strategies due to its performance during recent market volatility [2] - Defensive sectors, such as dividend styles, have performed well, and the Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy has accumulated excess returns during this period [2] - The overseas market has priced in most tariff impacts, and with a potential easing of tensions, there may be short-term opportunities for investors with low overseas exposure [2] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of 0.873% this week, with excess returns of 1.103%, demonstrating strong stability since February 2025 [3] - The Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy also rose by 0.345% this week, with excess returns of 0.575%, but its performance may improve as market conditions evolve [3] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns of 0.384% since its inception [3] Overseas Equity Fund Strategy - The overseas equity allocation strategy rebounded with a return of 3.463% this week, despite ongoing concerns in the U.S. market [4] - The U.S. economy has not shown significant signs of recession, and technological advancements may drive a new market cycle [4] Fund Performance Summary - Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy: 0.873% this week, -3.214% over the past month, 6.563% year-to-date [5] - Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy: 0.345% this week, -5.363% over the past month, 6.080% year-to-date [5] - Cash Growth Fund Strategy: 0.031% this week, 0.146% over the past month, 3.389% year-to-date [5] - Overseas Equity Fund Strategy: 3.463% this week, -5.819% over the past month, 18.540% year-to-date [5] Fund Strategy Construction - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund aims to select funds with long-term stable returns, focusing on low volatility and drawdown characteristics [6][16] - The Enhanced Equity Fund seeks to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for higher returns in improving market conditions [8][18] - The Cash Growth Fund focuses on selecting high-yield money market funds to optimize short-term cash management [10][19] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund utilizes momentum and reversal factors to select international equity indices for diversified investment [12][20]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-shares rebounded after the tariff shock, but the continued rebound momentum weakened this week. The CSI All-Share Index rose slightly by 0.3%, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index, representing fund performance, declined slightly by 0.23%. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy continued to benefit from the volatile market, rising 0.87% this week and recording an excess return of 1.1% [3]. - The quantitative strategy allocation preference is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy in A-shares is expected to have higher cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a defensive and offensive strategy. Overseas, the US stock market may be near a short-term bottom, and investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate layout. In the long term, the US stock market is still optimistic [4]. - Among equity fund strategies, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy rose by 0.873% and recorded an excess return of 1.103%. The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Strategy also rose, with a return of 0.345% and an excess return of 0.575%. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, better than the benchmark. The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy rebounded, recording a return of 3.463%. Global investment still has strong diversification value [5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Toolized Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - **1.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: It has maintained low volatility characteristics for a long time, with both portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown significantly better than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy started on July 31, 2023, it has achieved significant excess returns, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. - **1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy has been running for a short time, and its performance is similar to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. - **1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: After double screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, it has continuously outperformed the benchmark. Since the strategy started at the end of July 2023, the cumulative excess return has exceeded 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. - **1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the drive of artificial intelligence on global technology stocks, it has accumulated a high level of excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity portfolios [21]. 2. Toolized Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - **2.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to select funds with long-term stable returns from high-equity-position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, it constructs an actively managed equity fund portfolio with low volatility characteristics from both the net value performance and position characteristics dimensions [26]. - **2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to further meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. It constructs a portfolio with a higher risk - volatility level and offensive capabilities by digging into fund managers with stronger Alpha - mining capabilities in actively managed equity funds [27]. - **2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: Based on multi - dimensional characteristic factors of money market funds, it constructs a money market fund screening system to help investors optimize the returns of short - term idle funds and reduce return volatility risks [23][28]. - **2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Based on overseas equity market indices, it constructs an overseas equity allocation fund portfolio by using long - term momentum and short - term reversal factors to select appropriate QDII funds, providing an auxiliary tool for investors to expand global investment [25][29].

Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market entered a correction phase, while the commodity market continued to experience fluctuations. Early March saw a continuation of optimistic risk appetite, but by mid-March, the market became more cautious due to earnings season and various disturbances following Trump's administration, leading to a market decline. The market style shifted from small-cap growth to large-cap value, with trading focus diversifying towards sectors like non-ferrous metals, consumer services, and defense [3][14]. Equity Market Performance - The public quantitative strategy performance showed varied results across different indices. For the CSI 300 index, the monthly return was -0.07%, with strict constraint strategies yielding an excess return of 0.57%, SmartBeta strategies at 0.85%, and rotation strategies at 0.70%. The CSI 500 index had a monthly return of -0.04%, with excess returns of 1.39% for strict constraint strategies, 1.82% for SmartBeta, and 1.64% for rotation strategies. The CSI 1000 index saw a monthly return of -0.70%, with excess returns of 1.58%, 2.02%, and 2.45% for the respective strategies [4][17][25]. Private Fund Strategy Performance - In March 2025, the best-performing private fund strategy was the CSI 1000 index strategy with an annualized return of 26.20%. The quantitative stock selection strategy followed with a return of 20.50%, while the CSI 500 index strategy achieved 16.24%. The CSI 300 index strategy lagged with a return of only 0.17%. In the relative value strategy, the convertible bond strategy performed well with a return of 22.67%, while the market-neutral strategy returned 10.22% and the ETF arbitrage strategy returned 3.66%. In the managed futures strategy, the options arbitrage strategy led with a return of 9.31% [5][29][32]. Market Environment Factors - The equity market in March experienced a style shift towards large-cap value, which increased the difficulty for quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns. The volatility in value-growth styles also heightened market instability, impacting the performance of quantitative strategies. Despite a decrease in market volatility and turnover rate, trading volume remained within a "comfortable zone" for quantitative strategies, suggesting a lower likelihood of significant declines in excess returns in the short term [6][30][34]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market in March showed mixed performance influenced by overseas disturbances. The energy sector saw oil prices rise due to new production cuts from OPEC+ and increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Conversely, the black metal prices declined due to unmet domestic demand. Gold prices surged significantly as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties regarding international trade and economic outlooks [14][36]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a complex market environment with shifting styles and varied performance across different strategies. The quantitative strategies face challenges due to increased volatility and changing market dynamics, while certain sectors within the commodity market present potential opportunities for investors [30][34][36].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid escalating global political and economic uncertainties and significant asset price fluctuations due to tariff tensions, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy maintained its low-volatility defensive nature, serving as a stabilizer in the portfolio. This week, the active equity fund index dropped 3.9%, while the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy only fell 2.7%, achieving an excess return of 1.2% [3]. - The preference for quantitative strategies is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. For A-shares, the short- to medium-term view is upgraded to neutral. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy is expected to offer better cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a balanced offensive and defensive strategy. As the tense situation eases, a shift to more aggressive strategies can be considered [4]. - Overseas markets have experienced a significant short-term decline. The US stock market may be approaching a short-term bottom. Investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate bottom - fishing. In the long run, the US stock market is still expected to reverse and rise, and global investment has strong diversification value [5]. - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy is still worth allocating due to its stability and the potential attention from long - term funds with low - risk preferences. The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy's excess performance awaits a market turnaround. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy has achieved continuous excess returns, and the Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy has long - term investment value despite short - term setbacks [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking 1.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio has long maintained low - volatility characteristics, with significantly better portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy's launch on July 31, 2023, it has continued to show low drawdowns during market fluctuations and achieved good returns during rebounds, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. 1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio has been in operation for a short time. Its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. 1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - After double - screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, the Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark. Since the strategy's launch at the end of July 2023, it has accumulated an excess return of over 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. 1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - As a supplementary investment tool in the A - share equity market, since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the boost of global technology stocks by artificial intelligence, the Overseas Equity Allocation Selected Fund Portfolio has accumulated high - level excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity investment portfolios [21]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas 2.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to select funds with long - term stable returns from actively managed high - equity - position funds. By considering factors such as historical drawdown, volatility, and valuation, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [26]. 2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to meet the needs of investors with higher risk preferences. It selects fund managers with strong Alpha - mining capabilities from actively managed equity funds. Based on the analysis of fund return sources, a portfolio strategy is constructed, which shows a high holding - period win rate in back - testing [27]. 2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - A currency fund selection system is constructed by considering various factors such as management fees, duration, leverage, institutional holding ratio, and deviation. This system helps investors select currency funds with higher returns and lower return volatility [28]. 2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - In QDII funds, based on long - and short - term technical indicators, index momentum, and reversal effects, equity indices of multiple countries or regions are screened. QDII equity funds corresponding to the selected indices are used to construct an overseas market selected portfolio, meeting investors' needs for global allocation [25].

经历一轮超额不佳和规模回撤的考验后，量化私募行业正在稳步复苏。 据券商中国记者了解，近期九坤等多家头部量化逐步开放募资，并备案发行新产品，宽德、量派等私募则 迎来一轮规模的快速扩张，各大渠道均在力推量化策略，今年以来量化产品销售再度升温。 多家机构人士告诉券商中国记者，当前量化行业已从粗放扩张转向结构优化阶段，在管理规模尚未恢复历 史峰值的背景下，头部机构正通过产品线重塑、募资节奏把控等策略构建发展新范式。 九坤在渠道的沟通中称，今年很多三年期产品都要到期，会有一些获利赎回，整体规模会有些下降，所以 在这过程中我们将适当补充一些，目前九坤的管理规模在600亿元，今年将在A500适当募资，打造大票策 略线。 据QIML最新一期管理人规模图谱显示，量化四巨头分别是幻方量化、九坤投资、明汯投资、衍复投资， 管理规模为600亿～700亿元。量化四巨头中，今年明汯、衍复等保持稳定的发行节奏，今年以来分别备 案了16只、17只产品，九坤在3月底备案了3只产品，幻方则仍然没有开放募资，上一次新备案产品还要 追溯至2023年。 规模扩张最快的当属宽德投资，今年以来宽德已经备案发行了76只产品，成为行业当之无愧的"产品发行 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in micro-cap stocks, which had previously led the market rally, is attributed to multiple factors including regulatory changes, earnings concerns, and market dynamics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wind micro-cap stock index saw a year-to-date increase of over 20% until March 20, 2023, but faced significant pullbacks afterward, impacting related funds [3]. - Funds heavily invested in micro-cap stocks experienced an average gain of 12.72% from the beginning of the year to March 20, followed by an average decline of nearly 3% in the subsequent week [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Micro-Cap Stocks - The new delisting regulations are causing concerns about the stability of smaller companies, leading to fears of potential delistings or ST (special treatment) designations [4]. - There are worries regarding annual report performance, as the effects of economic stabilization policies may take time to reflect in company earnings, prompting early sell-offs by investors [4]. - The significant prior gains in micro-cap stocks have led to a decline in valuations as investor risk appetite decreases [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent adjustments in micro-cap stocks are partly attributed to a calendar effect, with April being a peak month for annual report releases and potential delistings [4]. - The volatility in micro-cap stocks is seen as a normal part of market fluctuations, although the current environment and technological advancements have made this period different from early 2024 [5]. - Concerns about high-frequency trading and quantitative strategies exacerbating market declines are noted, but some experts argue that these strategies can also provide liquidity and stabilize the market [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Fund managers are innovating strategies to manage volatility, such as maintaining a constant stock-bond ratio and employing barbell strategies to balance portfolios [11]. - There is recognition of the long-term investment value in micro-cap stocks, as many are overlooked and may contain significant growth potential [12][13]. - The current economic transition and technological advancements present opportunities for micro-cap stocks in sectors like AI, semiconductor equipment, and automation [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the A-share market, which has shown some support after a pullback from high levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3370, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2][3] - The article discusses the strong performance of heavyweight stocks and related industries, which have provided significant support to the index during this volatile period, while the semiconductor and technology sectors have seen a decrease in momentum [3][4] - Concerns about the U.S. economy's stagnation have increased following the release of economic data such as the PCE, leading to a significant pullback in U.S. stocks, with the market remaining sensitive to negative news and risk factors [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines a quantitative strategy allocation perspective, favoring the Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy over overseas equity strategies and enhanced equity fund strategies, indicating a preference for defensive investment approaches in the current market environment [3][5] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy has recorded a positive return of 0.087% despite the overall market decline, demonstrating its defensive attributes and stability in performance [5][20] - The Cash Management Fund Strategy has achieved a return of 0.033%, outperforming the benchmark, and has accumulated excess returns since its inception [6][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a tool-based fund combination to meet the diverse needs of investors in different market environments, utilizing quantitative methods to select funds with low volatility characteristics [9][11] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy is highlighted as a crucial tool for global asset allocation, focusing on selecting QDII funds based on long-term momentum and short-term reversal factors [10][14] - The performance tracking of various fund combinations indicates that the Evergreen Low Volatility Fund has maintained its low volatility characteristics while achieving significant excess returns since its strategy launch [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of three categories of all-market stock selection combinations and two categories of industry stock selection combinations, focusing on expected marginal improvement, expected risks, and high-quality operations as key investment logic [1][2]. Group 1: All-Market Stock Selection - The three categories of all-market stock selection combinations are designed to identify investment opportunities through multi-dimensional analysis of analyst expectations [2]. - The approach to expected risks involves effectively selecting "high-low wave" assets to respond to a "barbell-type" market [2]. - High-quality operations are emphasized, focusing on industries with upward business cycles and companies with high operational efficiency [2]. Group 2: Industry Stock Selection - In the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, the core logic for stock selection is based on an upward growth cycle supported by valuation fundamentals [3]. - For the new energy industry chain, companies with fundamental support and market recognition are selected [3]. Group 3: Multi-Strategy Index Enhancement - The multi-strategy enhancement of the CSI 1000 index is based on historical holdings from the three all-market and two industry stock selection combinations, with monthly rebalancing [4]. - The strategy allocates 80% of the index components according to their weight in the index and 20% based on an internal equal-weight configuration [4]. - Historical performance from October 31, 2014, to February 28, 2025, shows an annualized excess return of 14.6% relative to the CSI 1000 index, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.5 and a maximum drawdown of only 8.3% [4].

分析师：李亭函 登记编号：S0890519080001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 本周A股市场延续上周小幅回落后，企稳反弹，盘中接近2月底高点位置，随后进一步突破高点动力有限，未能 持续打开上升空间，权重整体呈现较强表现态势，上证综指全周收涨1.56%。海外市场方面，美股对于经济衰 退的担忧持续发酵，机构对于美国一季度经济预期的下调等多方面因素压制，美股市场进一步下挫。 量化策略配置观点： 常青低波策略 > 海外权益策略 > 股基增强策略 A股方面，对中短期保持中性偏谨慎态度，本周虽有所反弹，但是动力显著减弱，上证综指突破前期高点阻力 较大。前期多方面利好给芯片、半导体、港股等板块持续上涨的动力，强势突破10月份的高点。在当前市场充 分交易相关利好后，需要关注科技成长板块潜在过热情绪所隐藏的风险。反之，红利相关防御板块在春节后的 交易中关注度较低，相关行业表现较弱，但是银行等红利板块中长期维度的投资逻辑没有发生改变，回调下跌 后相比充分交易的热门板块依旧具有较高性价比，当前依旧推荐低波策略为更佳配置工具。 海外方面，美股在经历去年12月份以来的多轮下跌反弹博弈后，较长时间 ...

Strategy - The recent significant pullback in the Hong Kong stock market was anticipated due to short-term sentiment exhaustion and upcoming important domestic meetings, alongside external disturbances [2] - The market's rebound was primarily driven by trading funds rather than long-term investments, with a notable increase in southbound capital inflows last week [2] - The suggested strategy is to buy actively when prices are low and take profits during euphoric periods, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and industry trends [2] Government Work Report - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, balancing short-term growth stabilization needs with long-term development goals [5] - The CPI inflation target is set at approximately 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach in a context of weak inflation [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces, such as AI, while also addressing financial risks and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [5] US Economic Insights - Recent pressures on the US stock market are attributed to visible risks, including tariff concerns and challenges to the US's AI advantage, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields [8] - The market's concerns about the US economy may be overstated, as past fears have often proved to be excessive [8] - The analysis aims to clarify the underlying truths behind the recent downturn in US macro growth to better assess market directions [8] DeepSeek-R1 Quantitative Strategy - The rapid evolution of large language models like DeepSeek-R1 has garnered significant investor interest, particularly in their application to quantitative strategies [10] - Testing results indicate that DeepSeek-R1 outperformed in industry rotation tasks, achieving an excess return of 22.3% relative to an equal-weighted industry benchmark since 2024 [12] - Despite its advantages, DeepSeek-R1 faces limitations such as hallucinations, content randomness, and context memory length restrictions, which require careful consideration in quantitative strategy development [12] Market Comparison to 2013 - The current market structure shows similarities to 2013, with signs of economic improvement and supportive policies for technology enterprises [14] - The report suggests that the overall market performance in 2025 is expected to surpass that of 2013, with a continued structural trend in technology growth [15] - The analysis indicates that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with less divergence expected compared to 2013 [15]