国际政治的棋局，每一步都藏着算计与试探。 但这次白宫刚研究完罢免方案，特朗普却突然改口称"没这计划"。 为何态度180度大转弯？与财政部长贝森特和商务部长霍特尼克密不可分。 这俩人给特朗普算了笔账，强行换掉鲍威尔，不仅会引发股市崩盘，美联储其他理事还可能集体罢工，继续执行原有政策。 最近一周，华盛顿与北京的动向堪称戏剧性转折，特朗普突然收回解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的狠话，四架外国专机扎堆降落北京，中国财长却在美国"绕开"美 方高层。 面对这种情况，国际各界人士最大的疑问便是："中美何时开始谈判？" 特朗普对美联储的怨气并不是最近才出现的，从2018年炮轰鲍威尔疯狂加息，到今年威胁"炒人"，特朗普总想给美联储"上上课"。 更麻烦的是，特朗普的关税大招正让美国通胀高烧不退。若此时动美联储，外国投资者可能连夜抛售美债，导致利率飙升、企业借贷成本暴涨，这等于逼美 国经济跳悬崖。 特朗普的"服软"，也暴露了美联储独立性的脆弱性。美国司法部近期试图推翻一项90年的法律先例，该先例规定总统不能随意罢免美联储理事。若成功，未 来政府干预货币政策将畅通无阻。 但现实是这一举动不仅激怒了华尔街，连共和党内部也出现分歧。参议院金融委员 ...

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。面临特朗普政府不断要求降息的压力，这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次 决定维持利率不变。 此外，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美联储持有国债的缩表速度为50亿美元；持有MBS的缩表速度为350 亿美元。 由于本次会议未提供任何超预期的宽松信号，因此被市场解读为略偏鹰，会议期间美股和黄金走势整体 下行，美债利率和美元指数上行。从芝加哥期货交易所的美联储观察工具走势观察，市场似乎开始计入 9月不降息预期。 美联储内部分歧加剧，两票委提出异议 美联储公开市场委员会在公告中强调，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动 放缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。经济前景不确定性依然 处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍 曼（Michelle W. Bowman）和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）均投票支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged was interpreted as slightly hawkish, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rose [1]. - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities [1]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9 supported maintaining rates, while two members voted for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members expressed dissent [2]. - The dissenting members were nominated by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance on Independence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed will not adjust its rate path due to political pressure, asserting that the central bank's goals are to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation [3]. - Powell's statements reflect a strong commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence, which is supported at the congressional level [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed's statement highlighted increased economic risks and uncertainty, noting a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year and persistent high inflation [4]. - The Fed remains focused on balancing employment and inflation risks, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may face downward pressure in the third quarter, potentially leading to a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]. - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation and subsequent fiscal measures may limit the likelihood of further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with current trading around $3295.79 per ounce, reflecting a 0.37% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision, while Powell and the majority favor a tight monetary policy due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [3] - The upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and core PCE data, are anticipated to influence gold prices, with potential for further declines if the data is unfavorable [3] Group 2 - The monthly closing for gold shows a long upper shadow indicating a potential top, with current price action suggesting further downside may be possible [5] - Weekly analysis indicates that since the historical high of $3500, gold has been in a consolidation phase, currently finding short-term support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands [5] - The daily trend shows that recent declines were influenced by U.S.-EU tariff negotiations, with a focus on the $3300 support level and potential for further bearish positioning if prices fail to recover [5]

Core Viewpoint - The debate over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September is intensifying, with differing opinions on the conditions for such a move [1][8]. Group 1: Conditions for Rate Cut - Analysts from CICC believe that the conditions for the Federal Reserve to take action are maturing, arguing that a rate cut does not need to wait for a clear decline in inflation data [2][3]. - Current U.S. real interest rates at 1.63% are significantly higher than the natural rate of about 1%, indicating a restrictive monetary policy that could necessitate a rate cut [2][3]. - Economic growth and employment indicators are showing signs of moderate weakening, with the average growth rate over the past two quarters being around 1.5% when excluding tariff-related fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer, with recent agreements with multiple trade partners leading to a more predictable path for inflation [3][6]. - Effective tariff rates are expected to stabilize around 15%-16% after August 1, which will primarily affect inflation in the third and fourth quarters, with year-end CPI projected at 3.3% and core CPI at 3.4% [3][6]. - The misconception in the market is that the Federal Reserve must wait for inflation to decline before cutting rates, but if the tariff impact is understood as "one-time," the Fed could act sooner [3][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Independence - CICC analysts argue that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to political pressure from President Trump, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its independence [8][9]. - Recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and other officials indicate a preference for maintaining a tightening stance, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [8][9]. - The Fed's decision-making process involves a committee of 12 members, making it difficult for any single political figure to significantly alter the policy direction [8][9].

据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为时过早。 鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。鲍威尔表示，他们"将在下次议息会议前夕参考有 关经济的信息"。 鲍威尔表示，美联储在制定利率政策时不会考虑联邦政府的财政需求。 美国联邦储备委员会7月30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这也是自2025年初以 来美联储第五次决定维持利率不变。 特朗普施压无果 美联储内部分歧罕见公开化 据央视新闻，近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。7月30日早些时候， 特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。对此，鲍威尔当天未作出回应。 美联储此次决议似乎显示，政治压力并未改变其政策路径。不过，两名由特朗普任命的理事——负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒——罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来美联储首次出现两名理事同时反对利率决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite dissent from two board members who advocate for a rate cut due to signs of labor market weakness [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, as two board members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tightening stance, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, but believes this is not sufficient to warrant a rate cut at this time [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][5] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [5] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The company predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be prepared for a rate cut in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends [4] - It is anticipated that inflation may rise in the latter half of the year, driven primarily by tariffs rather than overheating economic demand, suggesting that the Fed may choose to wait for inflation peaks before implementing any easing measures [4] - Given the relatively loose fiscal policy environment, economic growth and inflation are expected to remain sticky, leading to a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy [4]

人民财讯7月31日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，美联储会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。有两位理事 反对维持利率不变，但鲍威尔与多数官员倾向维持紧缩：他们认为关税带来的通胀风险仍未解除，且劳 动力市场依旧稳固，因此不具备降息条件。鲍威尔还强调了美联储独立性，暗示不会屈服于政治压力。 中金公司认为，未来几个月关税的通胀效应将进一步显现，美联储9月或难以降息，如果特朗普关税继 续加码，降息时点还可能延后。至于特朗普施压要求降息，中金公司认为市场低估了美联储维护独立性 的决心。利率决议由12名票委共同决定，即便特朗普解雇了鲍威尔，也难以改变货币政策走向。 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为时过早。 特朗普施压无果 美联储内部分歧罕见公开化 据央视新闻，近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。7月30日早些时候， 特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。对此，鲍威尔当天未作出回应。 美联储此次决议似乎显示，政治压力并未改变其政策路径。不过，两名由特朗普任命的理事——负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒——罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来美联储首次出现两名理事同时反对利率决议。 鲍威尔透露，沃勒和鲍曼未来几天将说明其投反对票的理由。分析师认为，二人反对或因担忧劳动力市场疲软。沃勒曾警示就业增长接近停滞， 若不放松信贷环境或引发裁员；鲍曼则担心迟迟不降息会加剧衰退风险。他们的立场与特朗普政府的降息诉求部分契合，但美联储多数官员仍持 观望，尤其顾虑关税可能推高通胀。 鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。鲍威尔表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite opposition from two board members [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The majority of officials, including Powell, prefer to keep a tight monetary policy due to unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating resistance to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Implications - The inflation effects of tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in September [1] - If Trump continues to escalate tariffs, the timing for potential rate cuts may be further delayed [1] - The market may be underestimating the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its independence, as the interest rate decision is made collectively by 12 voting members [1]