Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., aiming to extend the global influence of the U.S. dollar in the digital realm [1][4]. Group 1: Motivations Behind the Stablecoin Legislation - The legislation is driven by four main considerations: personal interests of Trump, national interests of the U.S., the issue of U.S. national debt, and the promotion of digital financial infrastructure [3][4]. - Trump's personal interest is highlighted by his shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies post-2020 election, as he seeks funding through NFTs and support from the crypto community [3]. - The U.S. national interest is served by reinforcing the dominance of the dollar in the international market, with stablecoins currently holding a significant market share [3][4]. - The stablecoin market, with reserves exceeding $250 billion, is projected to potentially reach $2 trillion in the next 3-5 years, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and government interest costs [4]. - The development of stablecoins is expected to enhance blockchain technology and digital finance in the U.S., positioning the country favorably against emerging market central bank digital currencies [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Monetary System - The impact of stablecoins on the existing monetary system is expected to be gradual, with no immediate significant changes, as the current global monetary order remains dollar-centric [6]. - Long-term, stablecoins could disrupt the monetary system as their integration with real-world economies deepens [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If the regulatory framework of the "Genius Act" is effectively implemented, the risk of shadow banking may be mitigated due to the requirement for 100% reserves [7]. - However, the interconnectedness of stablecoins with cryptocurrencies poses risks, as market downturns in cryptocurrencies could lead to systemic issues [7]. - Emerging markets may face challenges from a potential "dollar-dominated + multinational corporations" model, which could threaten financial security and monetary sovereignty [9][10].

Group 1 - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump marks the beginning of a new regulatory era for cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, which will now be required to maintain a 1:1 reserve with the US dollar or US Treasury bonds [3] - The act includes three main provisions: stablecoins must be backed 1:1 by USD or US Treasury bonds, issuers must be licensed and disclose asset details monthly, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited to prevent Ponzi schemes [3] - The global cryptocurrency market reacted strongly, with Coinbase's stock price surging and the founder of USDT witnessing the event, as Trump described it as the greatest transformation in financial technology [3] Group 2 - The "Genius Act" positions stablecoins as the digital equivalent of US dollars, aimed at stabilizing the volatile cryptocurrency market [5] - Trump's strategy includes three key objectives: capturing global liquidity by mandating reserves in US Treasury bonds, blocking foreign digital currencies, and enhancing the dollar's dominance in digital transactions [5] - Experts warn that the act essentially makes cryptocurrencies serve US Treasury bonds, shifting risks onto users [5] Group 3 - The act is seen as a means to strengthen the US dollar's position in the global monetary and payment systems [7] - With US debt exceeding $36 trillion, the stablecoin legislation is viewed as a way to create new buyers for US debt, potentially increasing the market for stablecoins to $2 trillion by 2028 [8] - If stablecoins capture 10% of global payments, the dollar's settlement volume could increase by 30%, challenging the dominance of SWIFT [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency industry, particularly for the specific company involved, due to favorable regulatory conditions in Hong Kong [1]. Core Insights - The active regulatory environment in Hong Kong has created favorable conditions for financial institutions like the specific company to engage in cryptocurrency business, having obtained a cryptocurrency brokerage license and launched related services [1]. - The company has over 700,000 retail clients in Hong Kong, with an average client asset of approximately HKD 500,000, providing a solid user base for entering the cryptocurrency market [1]. - As a regulated entity, the company offers competitive pricing in cryptocurrency trading, providing greater value to investors and positioning itself as a bridge between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency world [1][4]. - The evolving regulatory landscape in Hong Kong is expected to bring additional revenue sources for the company, especially with the introduction of futures products and the acquisition of VATP licenses, enhancing its growth potential [1][5]. - Stablecoins present potential opportunities in infrastructure, custody, and payment sectors, with the potential for significant revenue increases based on stablecoin reserve asset investment returns and expanded application scenarios [1][6]. - Although it is challenging to estimate the size of the cryptocurrency trading market in Hong Kong, approximately 25% of Bitcoin trading volume occurs during Asian trading hours, indicating substantial market potential [1][7]. - The target of achieving a 12% market penetration rate by 2027 is considered feasible if the company continues to optimize trading experiences [1][7]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The company benefits from the developing cryptocurrency regulatory environment in Hong Kong, which may lead to the introduction of more futures products and additional revenue sources [5]. Market Potential - The cryptocurrency trading market in Hong Kong is difficult to quantify, but the significant trading volume during Asian hours suggests a large market potential [7]. Competitive Advantage - The company’s competitive advantages include a large retail client base, a one-stop service offering, and competitive pricing compared to platforms like Coinbase [3][4]. Revenue Growth - The company anticipates gradually increasing its fee rates while maintaining a focus on market share, leveraging cross-selling opportunities and low incremental costs to enhance profitability [10].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump establishes the first regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the United States, aiming to enhance the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, lower interest rates, and maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][2][5]. Legislative Progress - The U.S. Senate passed the "Genius Act" with a vote of 68 to 30 on June 17, marking the first major approval of cryptocurrency legislation in the Senate [5]. - The House of Representatives approved three related bills on July 17, including the "Genius Act," "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," and "Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Surveillance Act" [5]. - Trump described the "Genius Act" as one of the greatest changes in financial technology since the advent of the internet and reiterated his opposition to establishing a central bank digital currency in the U.S. [5]. Understanding Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio, differing from more volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [8]. - The "Genius Act" mandates that stablecoins be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term Treasury securities, with issuers required to disclose reserve details monthly [8]. Market Growth and Projections - The stablecoin market has grown significantly from a valuation of $20 billion in 2020 to approximately $247 billion currently, with projections estimating it could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030 [11]. - The two largest stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), together account for about 90% of the total market capitalization [10]. Government Objectives - The U.S. government aims to leverage stablecoins to bolster the dollar's influence in the digital currency space and maintain its dominance in the global monetary and payment systems [13][14]. - By promoting stablecoins, the government seeks to alleviate future pressures on U.S. debt and enhance its competitive edge in the global economy [14]. Global Influence of the Dollar - Experts suggest that the U.S. dollar's global influence is rooted in the post-World War II economic order, and current measures may not suffice to maintain its status without fulfilling international responsibilities [18]. - The ability of the U.S. to uphold global economic stability and trade relations will be crucial for the future acceptance of stablecoins [19]. Domestic Controversies - The "Genius Act" has faced criticism from both parties, with some Democrats arguing it lacks sufficient consumer protections and some Republicans claiming it contradicts previous executive orders against central bank digital currencies [20].

在本次闭门会上，程坦老师将重点分析稳定币的来龙去脉，港元稳定币能否破局，并前瞻背后的机会与风险。本次会议还会研判美国大美丽法案 通过对美国经济的影响，分析美国下半年的经济基本面和关税影响，并展望2025下半年全球资产配置，帮大家看清全球资产大趋势、理清思路。 程坦老师是坦途宏观（GMF Research）创始人兼研究总监，北京大学光华管理学院金融学博士，曾任国家外汇管理局中央外汇业务中心（外汇储 备）高级经济学家，资产配置部副总裁，在《管理世界》等期刊上发表多篇学术论文，研究报告多次获党中央、国务院批示。GMF Research是一 家专注于海外宏观和大类资产研究的独立研究机构，为机构与个人订阅者提供一站式投研服务，目前拥有近两千名个人用户，机构客户覆盖国内 数十家头部资产管理机构和私募基金。 此次分享的详细议题请见以下活动海报，感兴趣的朋友可点击下图加入Alpha闭门私享会会员。 2025年7月17日，当地时间美国众议院悉数通过了《指导与建立美元稳定币国家创新法案》（简称《GENIUS法案》）《2025 数字资产市场清晰法 案》（简称《CLARITY 法案》）、《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》（Anti-CB ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. through the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant legislative development in the cryptocurrency space [1][5] - The "Genius Act" requires stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and mandates monthly disclosures of reserves by issuers [4][5] - The passage of the "Genius Act" and related legislation reflects a shift in the political landscape, with cryptocurrency evolving from a financial innovation topic to a matter of national interest involving U.S. dollar dominance and political stakes [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's previous skepticism towards cryptocurrencies has transformed into strong support, as he aims to position the U.S. as a leader in the digital currency space [2][6] - The legislative process faced significant hurdles, including an unprecedented 8-hour procedural vote in the House of Representatives, highlighting the contentious nature of cryptocurrency regulation [3][5] - The approval of the "Genius Act" is expected to pave the way for U.S. banks to issue digital assets, with major financial institutions eager to explore this new business opportunity [5] Group 3 - The legislation is seen as a means to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global market, with stablecoins potentially reinforcing the dollar's influence beyond traditional monetary systems [7][10] - The demand for stablecoins is projected to create significant new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, potentially lowering interest costs for the U.S. government [7][8] - The push for private sector-issued stablecoins comes alongside efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's power regarding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), indicating a strategic preference for market-driven solutions [8][10] Group 4 - The global response to the U.S. stablecoin legislation has been one of concern, with many countries accelerating their own CBDC initiatives to counter the potential risks posed by U.S. dollar stablecoins [10][11] - The dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins, which account for 99% of the global market share, raises alarms about the erosion of monetary sovereignty for other nations [10][11] - Countries like Japan are implementing strict regulations to control the issuance of stablecoins, reflecting a defensive stance against the expansion of U.S. digital currency influence [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. through the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant shift in the U.S. stance on cryptocurrency regulation [8][12]. - The "Genius Act" requires stablecoin issuers to back their coins with liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and mandates monthly disclosures of reserves [11]. - The passage of the "Genius Act" and related legislation reflects a broader institutional struggle over the future of the U.S. dollar's dominance and the management of national debt [8][12]. Group 2 - Trump's shift from being a critic of cryptocurrencies to a proponent of stablecoins is driven by multiple factors, including the desire to maintain the dollar's global influence and address U.S. national debt issues [16][17]. - The legislation is expected to create a significant demand for U.S. Treasury securities, potentially adding up to $2 trillion in new demand as stablecoin markets grow [17]. - The U.S. legislative approach aims to limit the Federal Reserve's power by prohibiting the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), thereby favoring private sector stablecoin issuers [17][21]. Group 3 - The global response to the U.S. push for private stablecoins has led to 49 countries initiating central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot programs as a countermeasure [22]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential risks associated with the proliferation of U.S. dollar stablecoins, which could undermine the monetary sovereignty of other nations and lead to financial instability [21][22]. - The competitive landscape for digital currencies is intensifying, with countries like China and members of the European Union accelerating their CBDC initiatives in response to the U.S. stablecoin legislation [21][22].

Core Insights - Ethereum has surpassed $3600 per coin, experiencing a daily increase of 1.50% [1] Group 1 - Ethereum's price breakthrough indicates a positive market sentiment and potential bullish trend [1] - The 1.50% daily increase reflects growing investor interest and confidence in Ethereum [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives has officially passed the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, marking stablecoins as officially recognized financial instruments under U.S. law [2] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered are rapidly entering the cryptocurrency space, with JPMorgan piloting deposit tokens and Standard Chartered offering Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services [2] - The U.S. retirement market, valued at $8.9 trillion, is beginning to open up to alternative assets, potentially allowing significant capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market [4] Group 2 - If 10% of the 401k funds were to flow into the crypto market, it could result in an additional $870 billion, which is 22.2% of the current total crypto market cap [4] - The current market sentiment is bullish, with a greed index exceeding 70%, indicating a potential risk of market correction despite the positive news [6] - The ongoing price increase in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional investments, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have sparked retail investor interest [6][8] Group 3 - Investors are advised to take profits and reduce positions as the market approaches a potential peak, with Bitcoin likely to see further gains but also possible corrections [8] - The market is expected to experience a pullback before continuing its upward trajectory, with investors encouraged to wait for clearer signals before entering [10] - The Federal Reserve's role is crucial in determining which entities gain access to its clearing system, which will shape the future of the financial landscape [12]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn on July 19, following a rise on July 18, with Bitcoin dropping from over $120,000 to around $116,788, and settling at approximately $118,000, reflecting a nearly 2% decline within 24 hours [1] - Most cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, SUI, XRP, and ADA, also saw declines, with Ethereum down about 1%, SUI down over 6%, XRP down over 4%, and ADA down over 3% [2][3] Market Data - CoinGlass reported that over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation exceeding $800 million [4] - The breakdown of liquidations included approximately $540 million from long positions and $270 million from short positions [5] Regulatory Developments - On July 18, U.S. President Trump signed the "Genius Act," establishing a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. [6] - The Act mandates that the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency oversee the issuance of stablecoins by large banks and non-bank entities, requiring a 1:1 reserve backing for payment stablecoins [6] - The Act also calls for a study on non-payment stablecoins by the U.S. Treasury, with a report to be submitted to Congress within one year [6] Legislative Context - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against on July 17, which contributed to a temporary surge in cryptocurrency prices on July 18, with Bitcoin surpassing $120,000 and Ethereum nearing $3,600 [7]