Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The relaxation of port inspections is expected to increase export demand. However, agricultural demand in July is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. In the short term, the price will oscillate within the range of 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton, and long positions should be held cautiously [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 12 yuan to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1840 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 1025 lots to 193,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 708 lots to 215,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 198,600 tons, 1,200 tons less than the previous working day and 29,100 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 85.79%, 7.52 percentage points higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, 50,800 tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. The urea port inventory is 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 29.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the operating rate of melamine is 62.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - Policy: To facilitate the self - regulated export of urea by circulation enterprises, the association has coordinated with relevant departments to open a port legal inspection channel. Three state - owned fertilizer trading enterprises will be the execution subjects for the self - regulated export port legal inspection of urea [1] - Tender: The RCF urea import tender received a total of 3.0809 million tons of supplies from 21 suppliers. Only 405,000 tons of supplies were below the CIF price of $500/ton [1] Market Logic - With the relaxation of port inspections, export demand is expected to increase. But in July, agricultural demand is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. Upstream factories are destocking this week, and the Indian tender results continue to be favorable for exports. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Long positions should be held cautiously [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of India's tender import price and volume has boosted the futures and spot prices of urea. The urea production remains at a high level, with the downstream in the peak agricultural demand season and the industrial demand falling short of expectations. The export quota is gradually released, leading to an increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream enterprise inventory [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8][9][15] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [17][20][21] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - sized urea in China, the CFR price of large - sized urea in China, the difference between the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea and the FOB price of China minus 30, the difference between the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price of China, urea export profit, and disk export profit are provided [25][30][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - It contains data on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [45][40][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract is presented [43][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned [1] 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. The price of urea in July is still supported by the top - dressing demand, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Price and Related Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 9, UR01, UR05, UR09, and Shandong urea futures prices (closing prices) were 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1770.00 yuan/ton, and 1840.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton (0.75%), 9.00 yuan/ton (0.52%), 7.00 yuan/ton (0.40%), and 20.00 yuan/ton (1.10%) compared to July 8 [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in different regions on July 9 showed varying degrees of change compared to July 8. For example, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700.00 yuan/ton, 1840.00 yuan/ton, 1800.00 yuan/ton, 1880.00 yuan/ton, and 1850.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20.00 yuan/ton (1.19%), 30.00 yuan/ton (1.66%), 20.00 yuan/ton (1.12%), 0.00 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10.00 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 11.00 yuan compared to July 8. The 01 - 05 spread was 0.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 4.00 yuan compared to July 8 [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080.00 yuan/ton and 820.00 yuan/ton respectively on July 9 compared to July 8 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17.00 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) to 5006.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1763 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1770 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1771 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 211186 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong - side shock and closed at 1770. The supply pressure of urea is still large, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still about 880,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, so low - buying opportunities can be considered. But if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差80，升贴水比例4.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...

2025 年 07 月 10 日 尿素：小幅探涨格局延续 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,770 | 1,763 | 7 -27101 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,771 | 1,755 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,296 | 193,397 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 211,186 | 214,386 | -3200 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,245 | 2,607 | -362 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 588,944 | 678,928 | -89984 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | 7 0 | 5 7 | 1 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -90 | -83 | - 7 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜 ...

【冠通研究】 现货市场热情高涨 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 9 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内维持高位运行。现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂 出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极，目前工厂待发充足，预计后续暂无降价压 力。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计产 量将有增加。需求端，市场有效需求偏弱，农业需求及工业需求拿货谨慎，刚 需补库为主。农业需求状况好于工业需求，天气多发降雨，农业需求目前也维 持低位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时将迎来空 窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化厂内 库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪浓 厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。虽目前工业需求偏弱，但出口订单依然在发运，农 业需求有局部增量，库存连续去化。整体来说，受印标价格好转的影响，国内 尿素情绪同样高涨，今日期现价格呈现不同幅度的上涨，现货端更出现停售现 象。工厂出口订单支撑，集港陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏 强为主，继续关注出口政策情况。 1 现货方面：现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极， ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons [1]. - The top - dressing demand in July will support the urea price, so there may be opportunities for low - buying in July. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot make up for it, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 8, compared with July 7, UR01 rose from 1712 yuan/ton to 1723 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR05 rose from 1716 yuan/ton to 1727 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR09 rose from 1748 yuan/ton to 1763 yuan/ton (up 0.86%), and the price in Shanxi rose from 1670 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5023 yuan/ton (down 0.53%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 104 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1745 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1769 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1763 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 214,386 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong sideways movement, closing at 1763. There may be low - buying opportunities in July, but attention should be paid to the impact of the change in domestic agricultural demand and export demand on prices [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差102，升贴水比例5.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...