大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

| | | 尿素早评20250609:关注后市反弹机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月6日 6月5日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1830.00 | 1670.00 1850.00 | -1.00 -20.00 | | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1701.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1722.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1840.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小額粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1850.00 | 1860.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | | | 东北 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产，库 存短期震荡。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工偏高，农业需求短期偏弱。尿 素国际价格强势，5月15-16日尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得出口 利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1800（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差26，升贴水比例1.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+16.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, dropping nearly 3%. The market has a consistent expectation of weak demand, and the overall trend is bearish. Attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and the export end [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, with upstream factory prices slightly decreasing and new orders progressing slowly. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The daily production on the supply side remained unchanged, with multiple statistical calibers showing daily production above 200,000 tons, which limits the upside. On the demand side, it is currently the wheat harvest stage, with sporadic agricultural purchases and no concentrated replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the summer fertilizer production is basically finished. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, and there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1768 yuan/ton, closed at 1722 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%. The position increased by 26,121 hands to 245,711 hands. Among the top twenty main position - holding seats, long positions increased by 12,125 hands and short positions increased by 17,530 hands. On June 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,357, a decrease of 52 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are stable with a slight decline, new orders progress slowly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center has slightly moved down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong region, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 118 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Downstream Data - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 89.43%, a 0.40% decrease from the previous period, with the trend shifting from rising to falling. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a decline in production is high. Recently, local agricultural demand continues to progress, while domestic industrial demand weakens. As high - nitrogen fertilizer production nears completion, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate drops. Due to some urea enterprises receiving export orders and being in the legal inspection period, urea supplies are temporarily locked. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of downstream goods being shipped to ports in the short term, the enterprise inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 3,536, a decrease of 5,639. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,357, a decrease of 52 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Anhui is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic is 355 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port is 360 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 20.5 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the enterprise inventory is 103.54 million tons, an increase of 5.48 million tons, a 5.59% increase. The urea enterprise operating rate is 89.83%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points; the daily output is 206,600 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 5,845,080 tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.8507 million tons, a decrease of 0.9876 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,280 tons, a decrease of 1,740 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 103.54 million tons, a 5.59% increase from the previous week. As of June 5, the port sample inventory is 20.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of June 5, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4394 billion tons, a 0.45% decrease from the previous period. There are newly - added coal - based production enterprise device shutdowns, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased slightly. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with the futures price expected to fluctuate weakly today. The high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, and weak short - term agricultural demand contribute to this outlook. After the export policy was implemented, the price declined [4]. - The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand. The main risk factor is the change in export policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined. Supply shows high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short - term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, the operating rate of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. The international urea price is strong. After the export policy was implemented on May 15 - 16, the dual - track price system results in high export profits but has little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined. With high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, weak short - term agricultural demand, and price decline after the export policy implementation, the UR is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Leverage factors**: Bullish factor is the strong overseas price; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10), Shandong spot is 1870 (0), Henan spot is 1850 (0), and FOB China is 2588 [4][6]. | | Futures | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1703 (0), 1717 (0), and 1773 (0) respectively. The basis of the UR2509 contract is 77 (0) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), including 981,000 tons of factory inventory and 133,000 tons of port inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts is 6854 (+0) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with the highest being 17.9% in 2020 and the lowest being 0.3% in 2022. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with fundamental pressure in the medium term. The upside is limited due to the gentle release of domestic top - dressing demand, high inventory of mid - stream traders, and the export policy that curbs speculation. The downside is supported by the opening of the export channel. In the long - run, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually decline, but there may be multi - stage price rebounds due to export releases [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea主力: Closing price was 1,761 yuan/ton (down 12 from the previous day), settlement price was 1,774 yuan/ton (down 4), trading volume was 178,534 lots, open interest was 231,078 lots (up 5,951), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,619 tons (down 235). The turnover was 633.582 million yuan (down 56.772 million) [2] - Basis: Shandong region basis was 109 (up 12), Fengxi - disk was - 31 (up 12), and Dongguang - disk was 69 (up 12) [2] - Month spread: UR09 - UR01 was 65 (down 5) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,840 yuan/ton, 1,730 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,880 yuan/ton respectively. Trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also remained unchanged at 1,870 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 90.16% (up 0.57 percentage points), and the daily output was 207,310 tons (up 1,300) [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 980,600 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons (6.89% YoY) from the previous week. The inventory is expected to continue rising this week due to weakened speculative trading by traders [2]

【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The industrial and agricultural demand is tepid, and the enterprise inventory continues to increase. Some factory inventories are reserved for export as export factory inspections are carried out. The operating rates of coal - based and natural - gas - based urea production have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in a loose market supply. The costs are stable as coal and natural gas prices change little. The urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to rise, leading to a month - on - month increase in port inventory. The downstream agricultural demand is growing steadily, with wheat fertilization demand ending in some areas and rice fertilization demand in the southern regions set to increase. The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,790 yuan/ton (-24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+20). The Shandong basis was 90 yuan/ton (+44), the Henan basis was 70 yuan/ton (+34), and the Jiangsu basis was 110 yuan/ton (+44) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of May 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 980,600 tons (+63,200), and the port sample inventory was 203,000 tons (+40,000) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 507 yuan/ton (+5). The upstream coal - based and natural - gas - based urea operating rates have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The urea export legal inspection information is clear, the urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to increase, with the port inventory rising month - on - month [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of May 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (-2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (-8.33%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 5.88 days (-0.06). The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The port inventory has increased month - on - month due to the expected increase in export demand [1][2]