【资讯导读】 ·美上诉法院恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策 ·美称以方已接受临时停火方案哈马斯说以方回应未考虑其要求 ·美国第一季度GDP修正值按年率计算萎缩0.2% ·日本财务大臣：将密切关注超长期利率的走势 ·韩国央行将基准利率下调25个基点至2.5% ·美国联邦巡回上诉法院29日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁止执行 特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 ·美国国务院29日向国会通报其将进行大规模重组，国务院700多个国内办事机构中的近45%将被撤销、 整合或精简。 ·针对媒体当前有关伊朗与美国即将达成协议的猜测，伊朗外长阿拉格齐29日表示，"我们并不确定是否 已到这一步"。 ·美国白宫官员29日说，以色列已接受美国提出的一项60天加沙地带临时停火方案。巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵 抗运动（哈马斯）高级官员当晚发表声明说，哈马斯已收到以色列对加沙地带停火方案的回应，但该回 应没有考虑巴方要求。 ·美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）数据显示，美国4月成屋签约销售指数环比大跌6.3%，为自2022年9月 以来的最大跌幅，预期降1%。成屋签约销售指数降至71.3，接近历史 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article emphasizes that rapid GDP growth in India does not necessarily translate into improved living standards for its citizens, raising questions about the true benefits of economic growth [1][2]. - According to IMF projections, India's GDP is expected to reach $4.19 trillion by 2025, surpassing Japan and becoming the fourth-largest economy globally, but this growth masks underlying structural issues [1][2]. - Despite the impressive rise from the 10th to the 5th largest economy in the past decade, India's per capita GDP is projected to be only $2,800 in 2025, ranking 140th globally and the lowest among BRICS nations [2][3]. Group 2 - The concentration of wealth in India is alarming, with the richest 1% owning over 40% of the country's wealth, and the remaining population's average income drops to $1,130 when excluding the top 5% [2][3]. - India's Human Development Index (HDI) score of 0.685 in 2023 places it 130th globally, indicating significant lag in education, healthcare, and social welfare compared to other BRICS countries [3][4]. - The article highlights the regional disparities in HDI and income, with southern and western regions performing better than central and eastern areas, showcasing the challenge of achieving inclusive growth [3][4]. Group 3 - India's demographic advantage, with a median age of under 30, could become a burden if not matched with adequate education, skills training, and job creation [4]. - The labor force participation rate remains low, particularly among women, and millions of youth enter the job market annually without sufficient employment opportunities in the formal sector [4]. - The article calls for a shift in focus from merely pursuing GDP figures to investing in job creation, public health, quality education, and a robust social security system to ensure that economic growth benefits all citizens [4].

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims reached 240K last week, the highest in a month and 10K above consensus estimates, indicating potential softening in the labor market [3] - Continuing Claims hit 1.919 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting an increase in long-term jobless claims [4] - Q1 2025 GDP was revised to -0.2%, improving from the first read and better than the expected -0.4%, with consumption decreasing from +1.8% to +1.2% [5] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Pricing Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reached +3.7%, in line with expectations, while the Core Pricing Index was +3.4%, the highest since Q1 2024 [6] Company Earnings Reports - Best Buy (BBY) reported Q1 earnings of $1.15 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.09, with revenues of $8.77 billion, but cut guidance due to tariff conditions, leading to a -3% pre-market sell-off [7] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a loss of -$0.13 per share, better than the expected -$0.22, with revenues of $3.23 billion surpassing estimates by +0.88%, and maintained forward guidance, resulting in a +7% pre-market increase [8]

GDP小幅向上修正反映了更强劲的商业投资和更大的库存积累。美国联邦政府支出对经济的拖累不像最 初报告的那样严重。 随着更多数据的发布，GDP数据会被多次修正，这使得政府能够对其估算进行微调。4月底发布的首份 预测显示，美国经济自2022年以来首次出现萎缩。终值将于下个月公布。 | Metric (QoQ, SAAR) | Latest | Prior est. | | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | -0.2% | -0.3% | | Consumer spending | +1.2% | +1.8% | | Imports | +42.6% | +41.3% | | Business investment | +10.3% | +9.8% | | PCE price index, excl. food, energy | +3.4% | +3.5% | 今年年初，由于美国企业试图赶在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税之前采取行动，进口激增，拖累了经 济增长。消费者支出趋于温和，以及联邦政府支出下降，也对经济增长造成了压力。 此后，白宫撤销或推迟了部分惩罚性关税，大部分关税也被美国贸易法庭阻止。 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月29日 周四 ① 待定 英国央行行长贝利致辞 ② 02:00 美联储公布5月货币政策会议纪要 ③ 04:30 美国至5月23日当周API原油库存 ④ 20:30 加拿大第一季度经常帐 ⑤ 20:30 美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 ⑥ 20:30 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值 ⑦ 22:00 美国4月成屋签约销售指数月率 ⑧ 22:30 美国至5月23日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑨ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA原油库存 ⑩ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑪ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑫ 次日02:00 美联储理事库格勒致辞 相关链接 ...

成都之所以一直在"新一线城市"榜单上排第一，很重要的原因在于，成都就是全国第五大城。我们统 一标准，把轨道交通连通的市辖区视为城市的中心城区，2020年第七次全国人口普查，成都中心城 区各区常住人口高达1493万，仅次于上海、北京、广州和深圳，相较其他城市遥遥领先。除京沪深 穗和重庆外，全国其他城市包括远郊区县在内的全市人口都比不过成都通地铁的中心城区的人口。 本文来自微信公众号： 元淦恭说 （ID：yuangg173） ，作者：元淦恭，题图来自：视觉中国 刚刚，第一财经新一线城市研究所发布了2025年《 新一线城市魅力排行榜 》，本年度分数指标排名 前四的仍然是上海、北京、深圳、广州，设定为一线城市。得分在第5名到19名之间的15个城市，即 新一线城市，它们依次是：成都、杭州、重庆、武汉、苏州、西安、南京、长沙、郑州、天津、合 肥、青岛、东莞、宁波和佛山。 相较去年，无锡下滑到所有城市的第21名，排在二线城市第二。佛山由去年的第20名上升一位跻身 新一线城市第15名。其他新一线上榜城市和去年相同，成都、杭州、重庆、西安、南京、长沙和去 年排名未变。 自2013年首次发布以来，新一线城市排行榜已经成为国内影响 ...

刚刚，第一财经新一线城市研究所发布了2025年《新一线城市魅力排行榜》，本年度分数指标排名前四的仍然是上海、北京、深圳、广州， 设定为一线城市。得分在第5名到19名之间的15个城市，即新一线城市，它们依次是：成都、杭州、重庆、武汉、苏州、西安、南京、长 沙、郑州、天津、合肥、青岛、东莞、宁波和佛山。 相较去年，无锡下滑到所有城市的第21名，排在二线城市第二。佛山由去年的第20名上升一位跻身新一线城市第15名。其他新一线上榜城市 和去年相同，成都、杭州、重庆、西安、南京、长沙和去年排名未变。 自2013年首次发布以来，新一线城市排行榜已经成为国内影响力最大的媒体发布的城市榜单。"新一线城市"的概念，也逐渐为大众熟知乃至 接受。 不过，每年榜单发布之后，网络上对榜单排名总有颇多争议。榜单的批评者往往认为，这个榜单既不反映经济总量（GDP），也不反映城市 的发达程度（人均GDP）。同时，因为成都十多年来一直稳居这一榜单新一线头名的位置，也有不少人认为这就是成都的"买榜"宣传，甚至 还有人传说第一财经是成都的媒体。（注：一财是上海媒体） 关于城市之间的竞争，在互联网上一直极具话题性。很多人参与相关讨论都是"利益相关" ...

相关链接 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月28日 周三 ① 待定 第39届欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国部长级会议举行 ② 待定 美国副总统万斯在"比特币2025"大会上发表讲话 ③ 08:00 美联储威廉姆斯参加日本央行金融研究所会议的小组讨论 ④ 09:30 澳大利亚4月加权CPI年率 ⑤ 10:00 新西兰联储公布利率决议和货币政策声明 ⑥ 11:00 新西兰联储代理主席霍克斯比召开发布会 ⑦ 14:45 法国第一季度GDP年率终值 ⑧ 15:55 德国5月季调后失业人数 ⑨ 15:55 德国5月季调后失业率 ⑩ 16:00 瑞士5月ZEW投资者信心指数 ⑪ 22:00 美国5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数 ⑫ 次日02:00 美联储公布5月货币政策会议纪要 ⑬ 次日04:30 美国至5月23日当周API原油库存 ...

Summary of Deutsche Bank Economic Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economic Outlook** and the impact of **trade tensions** on economic indicators such as consumer spending and inflation [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending and Inflation**: - Personal income increased by **0.4%** compared to an expected **0.5%** increase, while consumption rose by **0.2%** against a forecast of **0.7%** [1]. - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to show a softer print of **0.12%**, influenced by volatile categories like airfares and portfolio management, leading to a year-over-year inflation rate of **2.6%** [1]. 2. **Durable Goods Orders**: - A significant decline in durable goods orders of **8.1%** was noted, primarily due to a drop in Boeing aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders fell by **0.2%** [2]. - Companies are pausing capital expenditure plans amid tariff uncertainties, which is reflected in the soft core orders [2]. 3. **Trade Balance and Tariffs**: - The advance goods trade balance showed a deficit of **$155 billion**, slightly better than the previous **$162 billion** [2]. - The report suggests that tariffs may narrow the trade deficit, as foreign retaliation could be muted, and the Trump tariffs have led to dollar depreciation [5]. 4. **Consumer Confidence**: - Consumer confidence is expected to remain low, with a forecast of **85.0**, close to pandemic lows. Attention will be on consumer views regarding the labor market [6]. 5. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant policy changes in the near term, with a consensus among officials that current policy is appropriate [7]. - The minutes from the May FOMC meeting are anticipated to reflect a broader consensus on the Fed's wait-and-see approach amidst trade uncertainties [7]. 6. **Market Volatility**: - The report indicates that ongoing trade negotiations and tariff escalations are likely to increase volatility in risk assets and corporate capital commitments [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential long-term economic costs of tariffs, including increased prices and reduced output, which may persist for years [5]. - There is a noted increase in longer-term inflation expectations despite a recent cooling in energy prices, indicating underlying inflationary pressures [6]. - The upcoming data releases are expected to shift focus back to trade, with significant implications for market sentiment and economic forecasts [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank Economic Notes, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, consumer behavior, and macroeconomic indicators.