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香港交易所(00388):5月跟踪:市场热度仍处高位,IPO大幅回暖贡献业绩增量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-16 01:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][44] Core Views - The company's PE ratio as of the end of May is 35.45x, positioned at the 44th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of cost-effectiveness for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an overall increase in market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of 29.8 billion, 31.0 billion, and 32.5 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 17.9 billion, 18.6 billion, and 19.6 billion HKD, resulting in PE valuations of 29.2, 28.0, and 26.6 times respectively [2][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a significant increase, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 16.1% and 15.7% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock market in May was 210.3 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 23.4% [7][10][15]. IPO Market - The IPO market in Hong Kong has experienced substantial growth, with 10 new stocks listed in May, raising a total of 55.8 billion HKD, which is a remarkable increase of 3150.6% year-on-year and 1830.4% month-on-month. For the first five months of 2025, a total of 28 new companies were listed, with a cumulative scale of 77.4 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 707.2% [25][27][28]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues and other income of 29.8 billion, 31.0 billion, and 32.5 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 17.9 billion, 18.6 billion, and 19.6 billion HKD. The corresponding PE ratios are estimated to be 29.2, 28.0, and 26.6 times [2][44][46]. Investment Income - As of the end of May, the relevant interest rates for investment income have decreased compared to the previous month. The 6-month HIBOR was 2.16%, the 1-month HIBOR was 0.59%, and the overnight HIBOR was 0.03% [23][31][44]. Macro Environment - The domestic economic climate has shown signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI for May at 49.50%, indicating a slight improvement. Meanwhile, overseas liquidity has tightened due to the postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% [32][36].
香港交易所(00388):4月跟踪:市场热度维持高位,业绩有望延续高增
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-30 09:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][45] Core Views - The company's PE ratio is 30.52x as of the end of April, positioned at the 20th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a reasonable cost-benefit ratio for investment. The report anticipates that with the continued enhancement of the mutual access policy in Hong Kong's capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is expected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 291 billion, 306 billion, and 321 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 173 billion, 182 billion, and 192 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x respectively [2][7][45]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In April, the Hong Kong stock market overall rose, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech increasing by 10% and 14% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 2,747 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% but a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [7][10][16]. Business Segments - **Spot Market**: The trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market remained high, with the monthly ADT for northbound funds at HKD 9,732 billion, down 20% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year. Southbound funds had an ADT of HKD 1,911 billion, down 3% month-on-month but up 145% year-on-year [7][16]. - **Derivatives Market**: Futures trading volume increased, while options trading volume decreased. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 84.1 million contracts, up 5.6% month-on-month and 23.2% year-on-year, while options ADV was 100.3 million contracts, down 6.0% month-on-month but up 14.0% year-on-year [20]. - **Commodity Market**: The LME daily average trading volume was 88.0 million contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [24]. - **Primary Market**: The IPO scale in April saw a decrease, with only 2 new stocks listed, totaling HKD 29 billion, down 73% month-on-month and down 6% year-on-year [26]. Investment Income - Investment income-related interest rates showed a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline. As of the end of April, the 6-month HIBOR was 4.03%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [33][45]. Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic economic sentiment has generally declined, with the manufacturing PMI for April at 49.0%, down 1.50 percentage points month-on-month. The demand side showed weakness, with new orders and new export orders indices at 49.2% and 44.7% respectively [37][39].
香港交易所(00388):2025年一季报点评:Q1利润随市高增,季度业绩再创新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-04 07:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [2][9]. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the report anticipates that a series of connectivity policies will enhance the basic conditions for recovery in the capital market, leading to sustained liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and an increase in overall market activity and valuation [2][6]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 266.63 billion, 285.26 billion, and 304.86 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 160.57 billion, 172.00 billion, and 184.36 billion for the same years, corresponding to PE ratios of 26.91, 25.12, and 23.44 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues and other income of HKD 68.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 40.77 billion, up 37.3% year-on-year [6][9]. - Revenue growth was driven by strong performance across various fee structures, with trading and trading system usage fees increasing by 60.29%, listing fees by 11.78%, and settlement and clearing fees by 56.32% [6][9]. Market Activity - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity in the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets, with daily average turnover in the cash market rising by 153.0% year-on-year and daily average turnover in the Stock Connect increasing by 43.7% [6][9]. - The increase in trading activity led to a 69.9% year-on-year growth in settlement and clearing fee income [6][9]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will continue to benefit from enhanced market conditions and connectivity policies, with expected revenue growth and profitability over the next few years [2][6]. - Specific revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [10].
香港交易所2024年报点评:持续推进多元化发展战略,Q4业绩实现高增
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-04 10:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [8]. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the report anticipates that a series of connectivity policies will enhance the basic conditions for recovery in the capital market, leading to increased liquidity and overall market activity and valuation for the Hong Kong stock market [2][6]. - The company achieved revenue and other income of HKD 223.74 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 130.50 billion, up 10.0% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, Hong Kong Exchanges reported a revenue of HKD 223.74 billion, a 9.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 130.50 billion, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year growth. In Q4 2024, the net profit increased by 45.55% and 20.19% on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, respectively [6][10]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows that trading and trading system usage fees, listing fees, settlement and clearing fees, and other income have varied growth rates, with trading fees increasing by 18.22% and settlement fees by 21.42% [6][10]. Market Activity - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity across various markets, with the average daily turnover in the stock market rising by 28.8% year-on-year and the average daily turnover in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect increasing by 38.6% [6][10]. - The report notes that the number of new listings increased, with 71 new companies listed in 2024, raising a total of HKD 23.2 billion, despite a slight decline in listing fees [6][10]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will achieve revenue and other income of HKD 252.28 billion, HKD 275.24 billion, and HKD 296.54 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 149.92 billion, HKD 164.50 billion, and HKD 177.93 billion for the same years [2][10]. - Corresponding PE ratios are forecasted to be 30.87, 28.13, and 26.01 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2][10].