每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing as a foundation, balancing risk and position control, and dynamically adjusting strategies to safeguard wealth in a fluctuating market environment [1]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is particularly suited for investors who lack the time to monitor market dynamics, do not have their own trading systems, and possess limited analytical skills [4]. - The investment approach is summarized as value investing, focusing on balancing risk and position control while dynamically adjusting to seize opportunities [5]. Timing and Analysis - Timing in stock trading can be approached from various angles, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market sentiment, and a comprehensive strategy. There is no absolute method for timing, and investors should consider multiple factors based on their risk tolerance and investment goals [5]. - A foundational investment framework is established, starting with stocks that exhibit a certain level of trading activity, followed by fundamental analysis to identify suitable candidates [6]. Valuation and Margin of Safety - The assessment of margin of safety and valuation involves both subjective and objective elements. Investors rely on experience and intuition for qualitative factors, while quantitative methods based on financial data provide a more objective valuation [7]. - Daily investment practices include using relative and absolute valuation methods combined with fundamental analysis to determine stock valuations [7]. Stock Selection Logic - A time hypothesis is set for investments, and if a stock does not appreciate, a reassessment of the broader market direction and the stock's trend and volume is conducted to decide on potential removal from the portfolio [9]. - A risk warning mechanism is established, setting key risk indicators such as significant price support levels and major negative news to issue alerts for timely action [10]. Industry Preferences and Commonalities - There is no specific industry preference; however, stocks are selected based on trading volume, with a tendency to favor current hot topics when conditions are similar [11]. Importance of Odds and Win Rates - Both odds and win rates are crucial in investment strategies, with their importance varying based on the investment context. A balanced approach is necessary, with a focus on win rates for stable returns and odds for high returns [11]. Dividend Significance - Dividends are highlighted as an important aspect of investment, reflecting a company's profitability and providing stable returns. Reinvesting dividends can lead to compounding effects, making them significant in long-term and value investing [12].