SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting that the U.S. may be entering a period characterized by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for both the economy and the central bank [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years [1] - The committee is considering improvements to its policy communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [1] - Ongoing discussions within the committee are focused on lessons learned from the past five years, with plans to complete a review of consensus statement modifications in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the terminology of "labor market slack" to avoid interpreting low unemployment as a signal of inflation risk [2] - The Fed is adjusting its "average inflation target" framework to adapt to broader economic changes, indicating a willingness to accept higher inflation for stronger employment growth [2] - Powell anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation will decrease to 2.2% in April, but tariffs may still drive prices up [3] Group 2 - The Fed is modifying its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlook post-pandemic, with a focus on the increased instability of inflation due to rising real interest rates [4] - The evaluation of the new policy framework is expected to be completed and announced in August or September, while current interest rate decision-making will remain unchanged in the short term [4] - Powell warns that increasing supply shocks will pose significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔：可能进入供应冲击更频繁的时期。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：不确定性的程度可能略有下降，供应冲击的程度也有所减轻。 ...

金十数据4月29日讯，德国商业银行的Joerg Kraemer表示，欧洲央行应该更快地采取行动，以应对未来 的供应冲击和通胀飙升。突然减少商品供应并推动价格上涨的冲击变得更有可能发生。欧洲央行应该避 免幻想冲击只是暂时的并一味等待。这种策略在新冠疫情后物价飙升的情况下并未奏效。相反，欧洲央 行应避免将决策过分依赖于中期预测，因为这些预测已被证明不够可靠。只有欧洲央行不再将这些冲击 视为暂时的，并果断地采取行动，最近的通胀事件才会成为一个例外。 德商银行：欧洲央行应加快行动，以应对日益增长的供应冲击 ...