SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting that the U.S. may be entering a period characterized by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for both the economy and the central bank [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years [1] - The committee is considering improvements to its policy communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [1] - Ongoing discussions within the committee are focused on lessons learned from the past five years, with plans to complete a review of consensus statement modifications in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the terminology of "labor market slack" to avoid interpreting low unemployment as a signal of inflation risk [2] - The Fed is adjusting its "average inflation target" framework to adapt to broader economic changes, indicating a willingness to accept higher inflation for stronger employment growth [2] - Powell anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation will decrease to 2.2% in April, but tariffs may still drive prices up [3] Group 2 - The Fed is modifying its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlook post-pandemic, with a focus on the increased instability of inflation due to rising real interest rates [4] - The evaluation of the new policy framework is expected to be completed and announced in August or September, while current interest rate decision-making will remain unchanged in the short term [4] - Powell warns that increasing supply shocks will pose significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔：可能进入供应冲击更频繁的时期。 ...

Group 1 - The degree of uncertainty may have slightly decreased [1] - The extent of supply shocks has also lessened [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's Joerg Kraemer emphasizes that the European Central Bank (ECB) should act more swiftly to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation, as the likelihood of sudden reductions in commodity supply and subsequent price hikes is growing [1] Group 1 - The ECB should avoid the misconception that supply shocks are temporary and refrain from waiting passively [1] - The strategy of waiting has proven ineffective in the context of post-COVID price surges [1] - The ECB should not overly rely on mid-term forecasts, which have been shown to be unreliable [1] Group 2 - Only by recognizing these shocks as not merely temporary and taking decisive action can the recent inflation events be considered exceptions [1]