我们认为，鲍威尔本次在杰克逊霍尔会议的演讲，虽然没有明示 9 月是否 降息，但多次暗示了愿意转向 "降息阵营"的信号，总体立场偏鸽。 一是，表达对劳动力市场的担忧、表示就业市场的下行风险正在上升。 二是，指出经济增长显著放缓。 三是，认为关税对价格的影响基准情形是"一次性的变化"；指出发生"工 资-物价螺旋"的可能性很小。 最后，鲍威尔指出"风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立场（shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance）"，这句话更是直 接反映出，鲍威尔开始考虑调整政策利率。 固定收益 | 固定收益点评 JH 会议：打开降息的大门 证券研究报告 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议的演讲点评 8 月 22 日晚 22:00（北京时间）美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔会议发表演讲， 内容包括两部分：一是当前经济状况和展望；二是货币政策框架的审查和 调整。我们认为，本次演讲是鲍威尔"转鸽"的重要信号。 暗示愿意转向"降息阵营" 资产价格反应来看，市场将本次鲍威尔演讲解读为转入"鸽派"阵营的重 要信号，美债收益率大幅下行，9 月降息的预期从 75% ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve consensus on a September interest rate cut appears to be largely reached, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction[3] - Powell's speech highlighted the dual risks of a declining labor market and rising inflation, indicating a need for policy adjustment[2] - The labor market is showing signs of increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates, while tariffs are contributing to inflationary pressures[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's monetary policy framework is being adjusted to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, balancing monetary policy goals[4] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement aligns with current high inflation characteristics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach[4] - The Fed will act based on economic outlook and risk balance, maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the market is expected to experience a short-term boost in risk sentiment, with positive reactions in U.S. equities[5] - The likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025 is anticipated, but caution remains due to the delayed effects of tariffs on inflation[5] - Market indicators showed significant gains in U.S. stocks, a decline in bond yields, and an increase in gold prices following the speech[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that inflation risks are more concerning than labor market conditions according to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from July [1] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with a focus on reviewing the monetary policy framework [1] - The expectation for interest rate cuts may narrow as inflation risks are perceived to be greater than economic risks, suggesting a continued hawkish stance on interest rates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming global central bank conference in Jackson Hole raises questions about whether Jerome Powell will signal any changes in policy [1] - Risk assets are currently suppressing risk-free assets, indicating potential market volatility in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is set to commence, with a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for August 22, focusing on economic outlook and monetary policy framework review [1][3] - Powell's speech is expected to discuss potential adjustments to the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus statement, possibly reversing some changes made in 2020 and returning to a flexible inflation targeting strategy [1][3] - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will participate in a closing panel discussion on August 23, which is anticipated to closely align with the conference's themes [2][3] Group 2 - The conference's main theme is "Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," which will guide the research presentations, although Powell's speech may focus more on current policy issues [3] - Media interviews will play a crucial role in disseminating policy information, with approximately five Federal Reserve officials expected to participate in interviews on August 22, following Powell's speech [4] - Historical data indicates that interviews with central bank officials often provide more immediate insights into policy direction compared to academic discussions, highlighting their market impact [4]

全球央行年度盛会——杰克逊霍尔央行年会即将拉开帷幕！高盛重磅出品"杰克逊霍尔央行年会"观会指 南，重点关注会议日程安排的三大关键时点和鲍威尔演讲和场外参会官员的媒体访谈。 8月18日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中称，全球央行年度盛会杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会即 将开幕，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间8月22日晚10时发表关键主旨演讲，市场预期他将就当前经济 展望和美联储货币政策框架审查发声，这一表态可能为今年余下时间的货币政策走向定调。 鲍威尔此次演讲题为"经济展望与框架审查"，将讨论美联储货币政策框架审查内容。据高盛分析，联邦 公开市场委员会可能对其共识声明进行调整，至少部分逆转2020年的变化，并可能回到灵活通胀目标制 作为主要策略。上次框架审查结果正是2020年在杰克逊霍尔公布。 欧央行行长拉加德和英国央行行长贝利将参与8月23日凌晨的闭幕小组讨论。由于会议大部分内容不对 外直播，约五位美联储官员预计将在8月22日接受媒体采访，成为市场获取政策信息的重要途径。 历史数据显示，这一被视为除利率决议外最重要的全球央行政策风向标会议，历史上每每推动汇率波动 显著超越8月其他时段。 核心日程安排：三大关键时点 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile in the future, suggesting that the U.S. might be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting its first monetary policy framework review since 2020, aiming to incorporate lessons from the inflation surge in 2021 and subsequent aggressive rate hikes [2] - Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation, particularly affecting small businesses that have limited access to credit [2][3] Group 2 - Barr highlighted the multiplier effect of supply chain disruptions, referencing the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on various industries and prolonged price volatility [3] - The uncertainty in current trade policies could potentially weaken economic growth momentum and increase inflationary pressures beyond expectations [3] - Despite recent trade agreements between the U.S., U.K., and China, global macroeconomic and trade uncertainties persist, with supply chain disruptions posing a risk of a domino effect on already fragile trade networks [3]

他表示，经通胀调整后的更高利率可能反映出一种可能性，即未来通胀可能比2010年代危机间歇期更不稳定。 鲍威尔称，未来通胀可能更加波动，美国可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期。这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 鲍威尔指出，尽管美联储基准政策利率目前远高于零（当前处于4.25%至4.5%区间），但近几十年来，当经济陷入衰退时，美联储通常会将利率下调约500 个基点。 鲍威尔强调，将通胀预期维持在2%至关重要，这也是过去评估的核心要点。 当地时间5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。 鲍威尔在讲话中重点关注了央行上次于2020年夏季进行的政策框架审查，他指出，过去五年来发生了重大变化。 在此期间，美联储经历了一段通胀飙升时期，迫使其采取了历史上激进的加息举措。鲍威尔表示，即使长期通胀预期与美联储2%的目标基本一致，接近零 利率的时代也不太可能在短期内回归。 以下是鲍威尔讲话全文（以下由AI翻译）： 早上好。今天我非常高兴欢迎大家的到来。Thomas Laubach 对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的研究与支持帮助我们更好地理解货币政策，因此今天以他的 名字继 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, closing down $72.77, or 2.24%, at $3177.13, nearing a five-week low [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.21% at 42051.06 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 5892.58 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.72% to 19146.81 points [2] - The U.S. government announced a reduction or removal of tariffs on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation risks due to new tariff policies, indicating a less certain inflation outlook for the U.S. [5] - The Chicago Fed President warned of potential tightening in consumer and business spending amid uncertainty [7] - UBS downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "attractive" to "neutral," citing rapid increases in stock prices over the past month [7] Group 3 - Foreign investment institutions have upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks, with Nomura raising its rating to "tactical overweight" and Citi increasing its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 2% to 25000 points [8] - International capital is increasingly betting on Chinese assets, with U.S. hedge funds raising their bullish positions on Chinese stocks [9] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to drive more international capital into China's capital markets, particularly in high-quality blue-chip stocks and high-credit bonds [9] Group 4 - Investors are focusing on key U.S. retail sales data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for new trading momentum [11] - The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release April retail sales data, with expectations of a flat month-over-month change [11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is also anticipated, with a year-over-year increase forecasted at 2.5% [11] Group 5 - Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to hold direct negotiations in Istanbul, marking their first direct dialogue since March 2022 [12] - The attendance of President Putin at the talks is a focal point of interest, with expectations that the meeting may primarily involve diplomatic discussions [13] Group 6 - The U.S. signed agreements worth over $243.5 billion with Qatar, including a significant order for Boeing aircraft, marking the largest wide-body aircraft order in Boeing's history [15]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Significant economic data releases and events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including the US CPI and Federal Reserve conference [1][2] - Key Point 2: Major companies such as JD.com, Tencent Music, and Alibaba are set to release their earnings reports [1][2] - Key Point 3: The week will also feature important speeches from Federal Reserve officials and other global economic leaders [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The economic data to be released includes unemployment rates, GDP figures, and inflation indices from various countries, indicating a focus on global economic health [2][3] - Key Point 2: The Federal Reserve's meetings and discussions will provide insights into monetary policy and economic research, which could impact market expectations [2] - Key Point 3: The earnings reports from major companies will be closely watched for insights into sector performance and consumer trends [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The former President of the New York Federal Reserve, Bill Dudley, suggests that a well-executed review of the monetary policy framework could enhance the Federal Reserve's ability to respond to economic shocks and policy uncertainties, which aligns with the current U.S. government's strengths [1] Group 1: Key Reforms Advocated - The G20 report, co-authored by Dudley, advocates for six key reforms to improve monetary policy effectiveness [1] - The first reform is to return to a symmetric 2% inflation target [1] - The second reform aims to achieve employment levels consistent with the 2% inflation target [1] - The third reform addresses the prioritization of inflation versus employment when conflicts arise between the two goals [1] - The fourth reform involves establishing a framework for quantitative easing and tightening policies [1] - The fifth reform proposes the publication of baseline and alternative forecasts from staff after each policy meeting [1] - The sixth reform calls for the development of a forward guidance framework [1]