美联储，这个全球金融的"心脏"，正亲手埋葬美元霸权！ 从对通胀的"暂时性"误判，到政策的急刹猛油，引爆银行业连环炸。更致命的是，它将美元武器化，在 全球掀起"去美元化"狂潮，甚至连自己都巨亏千亿。曾经无懈可击的金融霸权，已然千疮百孔，摇摇欲 坠！ 美联储决策失误的背景与根源 阅读此文之前，请您点击一下"关注"，既方便您讨论和分享，又能给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容，皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾 在全球金融舞台上，美联储无疑是那颗最耀眼却又备受争议的 "明星"。 每一次它的发声、每一项它所做出的决策，就会牵动着全球无数投资者、经济体的心。 近期美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲，本就让市场翘首以盼，演讲中暗示可能恢 复降息，这一消息刚一传出，瞬间在市场上引发了积极的反应，好像给众多参与者吃下了一颗 "定心 丸"。 或是过度追求理想化的目标，或是依赖过去的经验，又或是死板地遵循理论模型。 结果就是在应对通胀、就业等关键问题上出现了诸多偏差，就好像是在迷雾中航行却丢了指南针，迷失 了正确的方向，最终在经济调控的道路上走了不少弯路呀。 然而，戏剧性的是，仅仅在两天前，美联储公布的 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's speech indicates rising employment risks, suggesting a more proactive rate cut approach in the second half of the year, aligning with previous assessments[3] - The adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects a reduced tolerance for high inflation and an increased tolerance for low unemployment, adapting to the current economic environment[3] - If the August non-farm employment data does not exceed expectations, a rate cut in September is highly probable[3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 1.9%, 1.5%, and 1.9% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%[4] - The U.S. economy is facing headwinds, with a 10% year-on-year increase in business bankruptcies in the first half of the year and a continuous decline in core GDP growth[9] - The labor market remains tight, with a participation rate around 62.5%, 0.6 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels, and a high job vacancy rate[24]

Core Viewpoint - The global market appears to be driven by liquidity, with significant movements in various sectors, particularly AI and defense stocks, influenced by central bank policies and economic data [3][6][9]. Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market is experiencing a surge in AI-related investments, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is anticipated to inject momentum into Asian markets as well [3][6][9]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift in policy stance due to changing economic conditions, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy despite mixed economic signals [6][7]. - The market anticipates further rate cuts, with projections suggesting a total of 125 basis points of cuts by the end of next year, contributing to a weaker dollar and a favorable environment for economic growth [8][9]. Group 2: Global Stock Market Trends - Global stock markets have shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index reaching 6445.76 points and the Nasdaq hitting new highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [9]. - European markets have also performed well, with the Euro STOXX 50 index up approximately 11% year-to-date, benefiting from low valuations and economic recovery expectations [9]. - Japan's Nikkei 225 index recently surpassed 43000 points, marking a historical high, largely influenced by the AI investment trend [9]. Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, supported by the anticipated shift in U.S. monetary policy, with significant inflows from insurance funds contributing to the market's rise [12][13]. - In the first half of the year, approximately 1.5 trillion to 1.7 trillion yuan flowed into the A-share market, with two-thirds coming from insurance companies due to regulatory changes [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that the momentum in the A-share market may continue into September, with key indicators to watch including the stability of 10-year government bond yields and the performance of financing activities in the market [14].

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market shows continued momentum driven by low interest rates and stable fundamentals, with significant inflows from insurance funds amounting to nearly 1 trillion yuan [1][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in September is expected to inject momentum into Asian markets, including China, despite previous market gains [1][3] - The A-share market has seen a net inflow of approximately 1.5 trillion to 1.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with two-thirds coming from insurance companies due to regulatory changes [8][9] Group 2 - The global stock market is buoyed by expectations of interest rate cuts, with the S&P 500 index reaching 6445.76 points and the Nasdaq hitting new highs [5][6] - European markets have also performed well, with the Euro STOXX 50 index up about 11% year-to-date, benefiting from low valuations and economic recovery expectations [6] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index recently surpassed 43,000 points, marking a historical high, driven by strong market sentiment [6] Group 3 - The A-share index surpassed 3,800 points, supported by the Fed's shift towards rate cuts, indicating a favorable environment for continued growth [8] - The margin financing balance in the A-share market has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time since 2015, suggesting manageable leverage risks [9] - Key indicators to monitor for the sustainability of the A-share rally include the stability of 10-year government bond yields and the performance of corporate earnings in the upcoming quarters [9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided a clear hint of potential interest rate cuts, causing significant market reactions, with the dollar index dropping as much as 0.94% on August 22[3] - The Fed is facing challenges with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks skewed downwards, indicating a need to adjust policy stance[3] - The abandonment of the flexible average inflation targeting framework opens the door for quicker rate cuts if inflation shows signs of rapid decline[4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is exhibiting a "curious kind of balance," with both labor supply and demand significantly slowing, which could lead to a rise in unemployment if participation rates do not improve[4] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions ahead of the September FOMC meeting[4] - Initial jobless claims rose in the third week of August, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, but previous strong data complicates the assessment[4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - Japan's core CPI remained flat at 3.4% in July, suggesting that input inflation may be ending, with future inflation risks leaning towards a decline[26] - The U.S. imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan is expected to further impact Japan's manufacturing PMI, indicating a deteriorating external demand environment[26] - If U.S. economic data points to effective fiscal expansion and improved employment, a rebound in the already weakened dollar index may be more likely[5]

[ 特朗普已经放话今年夏秋之际就会公布提名，这种超前人事安排不仅会显著缩短新旧主席交接期，而 更重要的是，"影子主席"将对鲍威尔的言论形成对冲。从目前信息看，"影子主席"有三名热门人选，分 别是美联储前理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特以及美联储现任理事沃勒。 ] 鲍威尔首任之初，奋进了十年的美国牛市虽未显露出歇脚迹象，但通胀已经若隐若现，同时，特朗普政 府的减税政策如火如荼，美联储则开启了缓慢加息与渐进缩表同步的货币政策正常化进程。然而，新冠 疫情的突如其来，逼停了美国经济列车，随后遭遇四十年来最严重的通货膨胀。 疫情冲击超出了所有人的想象。道琼斯指数短短一个月暴跌超过10000点，单月跌幅创30年之最，远非 金融危机时的市场动荡能比。面对流动性几近枯竭的金融市场，鲍威尔做出了美联储历史上最大胆的政 策决定，除一次性紧急降息50个基点外，十天后再度降息100个基点，直至将联邦基准利率引至零区 间，同时开启无上限量化宽松。 被经济学家称为"火箭筒救市"的系列之举很快重建了市场信心，疫情发生一个月后，美股强劲反弹，当 年标普500指数录得16%的涨幅。更重要的是，非常时期的非常决策让鲍威尔在传统央行政策禁忌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials to maintain the current interest rate policy due to rising economic uncertainty, reflecting a cautious approach towards inflation and employment risks [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time, citing sufficient space to wait for clearer signals regarding inflation and economic outlook [1] - Economists believe that tariffs will likely increase inflation and suppress economic growth, with the Fed staff lowering growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - The Fed staff predicts a significant weakening in the labor market, with unemployment expected to rise above the "natural rate" this year and remain high until 2027 [2] - Inflation expectations have become a focal point for policymakers, with nearly all participants acknowledging the risk of more persistent inflation than previously anticipated [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The minutes indicate ongoing discussions regarding the periodic evaluation of the monetary policy framework, with a potential shift towards a "flexible inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% temporarily without compensating for past deviations [2]

Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future supply shocks may lead to more volatile inflation, prompting a reassessment of the monetary policy framework, particularly the "average inflation targeting" strategy introduced in 2020 [1] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.5% and 4.75%, with Powell emphasizing the need to ensure inflation is truly under control before considering rate cuts [2] - The market is uncertain about the Fed's next steps, as inflation has decreased but remains above the target, leading to fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts [5] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. government debt has reached $36.19 trillion, exceeding the debt ceiling of $33.1 trillion, creating significant interest payment pressures [3] - Calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are increasing, as lower rates could alleviate the government's borrowing burden, but this could also lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation risks [3] Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, but the Fed believes the labor market is still too "hot," indicating a desire to cool it down without causing significant job losses [4] - Powell's approach aims to balance high interest rates to control inflation while maintaining employment levels [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The comparison to the 1970s under Chairman Burns highlights the risks of aggressive rate cuts leading to uncontrollable inflation, with historical data showing inflation rates averaging 9% during that period [7][11] - Current inflation rates are at 2.9% with a core CPI of 3.4%, indicating that inflation is still above the Fed's target [12] Group 5: Political and Market Pressures - Former President Trump has publicly called for immediate rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious stance, as companies like Ford and Mattel lower earnings forecasts amid economic uncertainty [6] - Wall Street analysts are warning of potential recession risks, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 35% chance of recession within a year, increasing the pressure for the Fed to act [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively due to the better - than - expected China - US trade negotiations. However, different metals have different market outlooks, with copper expected to be volatile and short - term bearish, zinc being bearish, and nickel being in a wide - range oscillation [1][9][89][207]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitored the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, along with their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are bearish due to the digestion of trade negotiation benefits, weak credit data, expected Fed rate cuts, and low consumer confidence. The raw material end is bullish as copper concentrate processing fees are low and port inventories are decreasing. The smelting end is neutral with smelter losses. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The position and inventory are also neutral [9]. - **Investment View**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and short - term bearish [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bearish for single - side trading, and no arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are neutral with tariff adjustments and economic data. The raw material end is bearish with rising processing fees and increasing port inventories. The smelting end is bearish with expected supply increases. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand weakens in the off - season. The inventory is neutral with potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Investment View**: Bearish on zinc prices, and focus on the sustainability of inventory accumulation [89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - side trading for single - side trading, and pay attention to far - month reverse arbitrage [89]. 3.4 Nickel (NI) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are neutral with mixed market sentiment. The raw material end is bullish with firm nickel ore prices and increasing imports. The smelting end is neutral with high - level production and cost pressures. The demand end is neutral - bearish with high - level stainless steel supply and uncertain demand, and increasing new - energy demand. The inventory is neutral with slightly decreasing but still high inventories [207]. - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range, and pay attention to the cost range of electrowinning nickel [207]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound trading for single - side trading, and wait - and - see for arbitrage [207].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a significant shift in its monetary policy framework, particularly regarding its inflation targets and employment gap response strategies, indicating potential upward pressure on long-term interest rates [1][3] - The adjustment to the "average inflation target" framework suggests that the Federal Reserve is willing to take on more risks to boost employment growth, even if it means tolerating higher inflation [3] - The mention of "tariff-driven price increases" as a new inflationary factor indicates that the Federal Reserve is preparing for potential escalations in trade tensions, reflecting a need for policy flexibility [3] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced rapid rotation of hot stocks, with the index showing an approximate 10% increase since a significant drop on April 7, yet investor returns have not improved correspondingly [3] - The primary reason for this discrepancy is frequent "wrong stock selection and misoperations," where investors mistakenly believe they are buying at a low point, only to see prices continue to decline [3][5] - Institutional participation is crucial for stock price increases, as evidenced by contrasting performances of two stocks that appeared similar in price movement but had different institutional involvement [4][10]