野村资本管理首席投资长Matthew Pallai在一份报告中表示，美联储在就业市场恶化的情况下变得更加 温和，但对通胀波动仍高度敏感。他正在关注关税和移民政策带来的持续价格压力会如何使反通胀趋势 复杂化。如果通胀意外上升，股票和企业信贷估值过高可能会加剧波动性。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Recent developments in trade agreements are reducing global economic uncertainty, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion, which may result in short-term fluctuations in precious metals [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is increasingly influenced by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to unexpected rate cuts and support for precious metals, especially silver [2] - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a reliable asset [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The sentiment in the precious metals market is currently influenced by the progress of trade agreements and the Federal Reserve's policy independence, with expectations of continued fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The historical performance of gold and silver indicates that gold prices are primarily driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and global risk events, while silver prices are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [2] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Investment Trends - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves as a diversification strategy away from dollar-denominated assets, which supports the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3][4] - The demand for gold remains strong despite stock market rebounds, driven by concerns over government debt levels and a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as an alternative currency asset [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Mahrouf, indicates that artificial intelligence and demographic changes will lead to increased volatility in inflation [1] Group 1 - The integration of artificial intelligence in various sectors is expected to impact labor markets and productivity, contributing to inflationary pressures [1] - Demographic shifts, such as aging populations, are likely to exacerbate inflation volatility by affecting consumer demand and labor supply [1] - The combination of these factors suggests a need for adaptive monetary policies to manage the potential fluctuations in inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the future economic outlook of the United States, leading to a decline in major stock indices on May 15, with the Dow Jones down 0.33%, Nasdaq down 0.77%, and S&P 500 down 0.32% [1][2] - Powell warned of potential increased volatility in inflation, indicating that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - Morgan Stanley economist Michael Hansen noted that tariff policies could lead to a surge in U.S. goods prices in June and July, making the Federal Reserve more cautious about considering interest rate cuts due to the uncertainty and volatility introduced by these policies [2] Group 2 - Walmart's stock fell over 3% as the company anticipates raising some prices this month due to escalating economic turmoil [2] - UnitedHealth's stock plummeted more than 17% amid an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into its medical billing practices, with the company claiming it was unaware of the investigation [5] - Chinese concept stock NetEase surged over 13%, reporting a first-quarter net revenue of 28.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [7] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, currently reported at 100.845 [8] - In the commodities market, gold prices showed a slight rebound after several days of decline, with both London spot gold and COMEX gold futures returning to the $3,200 per ounce level [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is facing challenges due to potential future inflation volatility and supply shocks, prompting a reassessment of its policy framework to adapt to significant changes in the economic environment since 2020 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Challenges - Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and persistent supply shocks, which poses a significant challenge for both the economy and the central bank [1][3]. - The Fed is considering adjustments to its average inflation target, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations amid uncertainty [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Adjustments - The Fed's current policy framework was adopted five years ago, and a review is underway, expected to be completed by August or September, although it is unlikely to affect current interest rate settings [5]. - Powell noted that economic structures evolve over time, necessitating changes in monetary policy strategies, tools, and communication methods to address different economic challenges [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [7]. - Current predictions from Wall Street banks suggest that the Fed may not lower interest rates until December or later, with varying expectations on the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts [7].

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, Nasdaq down 0.48%, and S&P 500 down 0.08% [1] Company-Specific News - UnitedHealth shares fell over 10% as the US Department of Justice investigates the company's medical insurance billing practices, with the company claiming it was unaware of the situation [3] - Alibaba's stock dropped nearly 8%, Beike fell 7%, and JD.com decreased by 4.5% [5] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.5%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 2.7% to 3.4%. Month-on-month, PPI decreased by 0.5%, against an expected increase of 0.2% [5] - Core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the previous value was revised from 3.3% to 4.0%. Month-on-month, core PPI fell by 0.4%, compared to an expected increase of 0.3% [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were reported at 229,000, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 228,000 to 229,000 [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting the US could be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [5] - Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years and will consider improving communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting that the U.S. may be entering a period characterized by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for both the economy and the central bank [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years [1] - The committee is considering improvements to its policy communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [1] - Ongoing discussions within the committee are focused on lessons learned from the past five years, with plans to complete a review of consensus statement modifications in the coming months [1]