道富投资管理：多种因素支撑黄金需求金价在美股反弹背景下依然高位坚挺 【机构观点分析】 国信期货观点认为，近期美国密集推进贸易协议取得实质性进展，多重贸易突破预期正削弱全球经贸不 确定性，市场避险情绪持续回落。美联储层面，政治干扰因素依然存在，特朗普虽撤回解雇鲍威尔的威 胁，却持续施压美联储降息。展望后市，贵金属短期或维持震荡调整，需等待贸易协议细节与货币政策 路径形成更清晰指引。 国信期货：避险情绪降温贵金属短期或维持震荡调整 五矿期货：美联储政策独立性受挫是后续贵金属市场交易主线 新湖期货：近期黄金总体呈现震荡后续金价中枢仍将上行 DataTrek Research：地缘紧张和央行购金推动近年黄金表现强于美股 五矿期货研报指出，复盘金银历史上的行情走势，黄金价格的驱动来自于美国财政赤字的扩张与全球风 险事件的触发，而白银价格则更受益于美联储宽松的货币政策预期。从金银价格近期盘面走势来看，其 对于美国重要经济数据的反应相对有限，而贵金属价格在美联储关键票委发言、以及联储主席"去职风 波"事件前后出现较大的边际变化。当前美联储货币政策的核心影响驱动已不再局限于就业和通胀数 据，而更多受到来自于特朗普政府强力施压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Mahrouf, indicates that artificial intelligence and demographic changes will lead to increased volatility in inflation [1] Group 1 - The integration of artificial intelligence in various sectors is expected to impact labor markets and productivity, contributing to inflationary pressures [1] - Demographic shifts, such as aging populations, are likely to exacerbate inflation volatility by affecting consumer demand and labor supply [1] - The combination of these factors suggests a need for adaptive monetary policies to manage the potential fluctuations in inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

个股方面，沃尔玛跌逾3%。由于日益加剧的经济动荡，这家全球最大的零售商预计将在本月 开始提高部分价格。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 联合健康大跌超17%。美国司法部正在调查联合健康的医疗保险账单操作，公司称对此并不 知情。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 美联储主席鲍威尔释放对美国经济前景担忧情绪，美股应声下跌。当地时间5月15日，美股 三大指数开盘集体下挫，截至发稿，道指跌0.33%，报41911.20点；纳斯达克指数跌 0.77%，报18999.39点；标普500指数跌0.32%，报5873.82点。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 消息面上，美联储主席鲍威尔发出警告，声称美国未来通胀波动可能加剧。当地时间5月15 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。 鲍威尔称，未来通胀可 能更加波动，美国可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济 和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 鲍威尔表示，美联储将根据过去五年的经验，重新审视战略框架的某些方面，还将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is facing challenges due to potential future inflation volatility and supply shocks, prompting a reassessment of its policy framework to adapt to significant changes in the economic environment since 2020 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Challenges - Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and persistent supply shocks, which poses a significant challenge for both the economy and the central bank [1][3]. - The Fed is considering adjustments to its average inflation target, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations amid uncertainty [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Adjustments - The Fed's current policy framework was adopted five years ago, and a review is underway, expected to be completed by August or September, although it is unlikely to affect current interest rate settings [5]. - Powell noted that economic structures evolve over time, necessitating changes in monetary policy strategies, tools, and communication methods to address different economic challenges [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [7]. - Current predictions from Wall Street banks suggest that the Fed may not lower interest rates until December or later, with varying expectations on the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts [7].

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, Nasdaq down 0.48%, and S&P 500 down 0.08% [1] Company-Specific News - UnitedHealth shares fell over 10% as the US Department of Justice investigates the company's medical insurance billing practices, with the company claiming it was unaware of the situation [3] - Alibaba's stock dropped nearly 8%, Beike fell 7%, and JD.com decreased by 4.5% [5] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.5%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 2.7% to 3.4%. Month-on-month, PPI decreased by 0.5%, against an expected increase of 0.2% [5] - Core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the previous value was revised from 3.3% to 4.0%. Month-on-month, core PPI fell by 0.4%, compared to an expected increase of 0.3% [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were reported at 229,000, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 228,000 to 229,000 [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting the US could be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [5] - Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years and will consider improving communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting that the U.S. may be entering a period characterized by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for both the economy and the central bank [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years [1] - The committee is considering improvements to its policy communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [1] - Ongoing discussions within the committee are focused on lessons learned from the past five years, with plans to complete a review of consensus statement modifications in the coming months [1]