Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Mahrouf, indicates that artificial intelligence and demographic changes will lead to increased volatility in inflation [1] Group 1 - The integration of artificial intelligence in various sectors is expected to impact labor markets and productivity, contributing to inflationary pressures [1] - Demographic shifts, such as aging populations, are likely to exacerbate inflation volatility by affecting consumer demand and labor supply [1] - The combination of these factors suggests a need for adaptive monetary policies to manage the potential fluctuations in inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's adjustment of monetary policy is a response to strategic missteps over the past few years, particularly regarding inflation predictions [5][8] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $4.2 trillion to $9 trillion due to unprecedented monetary easing measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] - The Fed's previous belief that inflation was a temporary phenomenon overlooked significant structural changes in the global economy, including supply chain vulnerabilities and energy crises [8][10] Group 2: Global Economic Changes - The pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased energy and raw material supply tensions [6][8] - The future economic landscape is characterized by a bifurcation between Western economies, facing high inflation and low growth, and East Asian economies, which may experience low inflation and growth due to overcapacity [10][11] - The divergence in economic conditions highlights deep-seated structural issues and increasing economic disparities between different regions [13][19] Group 3: Future Economic Order - The Fed's policy transformation signals a shift from monetary stimulus to industrial restructuring, indicating that future economic rules will extend beyond simple monetary policy [15][18] - Western economies need to invest in innovation and manufacturing to address challenges posed by high inflation and interest rates, while East Asian economies must shift from export reliance to domestic consumption [16][18] - The ongoing global economic restructuring is likely to lead to a multipolar international monetary system, diminishing the dollar's dominance and increasing the role of emerging markets [19][21]

个股方面，沃尔玛跌逾3%。由于日益加剧的经济动荡，这家全球最大的零售商预计将在本月 开始提高部分价格。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 联合健康大跌超17%。美国司法部正在调查联合健康的医疗保险账单操作，公司称对此并不 知情。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 美联储主席鲍威尔释放对美国经济前景担忧情绪，美股应声下跌。当地时间5月15日，美股 三大指数开盘集体下挫，截至发稿，道指跌0.33%，报41911.20点；纳斯达克指数跌 0.77%，报18999.39点；标普500指数跌0.32%，报5873.82点。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/15，不作投资推荐） 消息面上，美联储主席鲍威尔发出警告，声称美国未来通胀波动可能加剧。当地时间5月15 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。 鲍威尔称，未来通胀可 能更加波动，美国可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济 和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 鲍威尔表示，美联储将根据过去五年的经验，重新审视战略框架的某些方面，还将 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月1 5日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。鲍威尔称， 未来通胀可能更加波动，美国 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期 ，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 鲍威尔还透露，美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化，计划在未来几个月内完成对该框架具体修改的审 议。 鲍威尔 图\新华社 鲍威尔最新警告 据券商中国报道，据美联储官网发布的演讲稿，鲍威尔表示："实际利率上升也可能反映出，未来通胀可能会比21世纪10年代两次危机之间的时期更加波 动。我们可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。" 他还强调，重新考虑平均通胀目标是合适的。稳固通胀预期对美联储所做的一切都至关重要。在巨大的冲击中，必须传达对通胀前景的不确定性。 值得一提的是，在此之前，鲍威尔曾多次提到政策变化可能使美联储陷入支持就业和控制通胀之间的艰难平衡。 鲍威尔表示，自2020年以来，经济环境已发生重大变化，美联储的评估将反映这些变化的考量。美联储于五年前采用当前框架，并于今年启动对该框架 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, Nasdaq down 0.48%, and S&P 500 down 0.08% [1] Company-Specific News - UnitedHealth shares fell over 10% as the US Department of Justice investigates the company's medical insurance billing practices, with the company claiming it was unaware of the situation [3] - Alibaba's stock dropped nearly 8%, Beike fell 7%, and JD.com decreased by 4.5% [5] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.5%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 2.7% to 3.4%. Month-on-month, PPI decreased by 0.5%, against an expected increase of 0.2% [5] - Core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the previous value was revised from 3.3% to 4.0%. Month-on-month, core PPI fell by 0.4%, compared to an expected increase of 0.3% [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were reported at 229,000, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 228,000 to 229,000 [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting the US could be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [5] - Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years and will consider improving communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future inflation may become more volatile, suggesting that the U.S. may be entering a period characterized by more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing significant challenges for both the economy and the central bank [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will reassess certain aspects of its strategic framework based on experiences from the past five years [1] - The committee is considering improvements to its policy communication tools regarding uncertainty and risk [1] - Ongoing discussions within the committee are focused on lessons learned from the past five years, with plans to complete a review of consensus statement modifications in the coming months [1]