Group 1 - S&P Global indicates that recent tariff measures in the U.S. may exacerbate inflation pressures, but the overall consumer price increase in Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. companies have borne most of the costs of tariffs, with 64% of the burden falling on them, while consumers and foreign exporters bear 22% and 14%, respectively [2] - If recent tariffs follow the previous cost-shifting pattern, consumer burden could rise to 67%, while corporate burden may drop below 10% [2] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts that emerging Asian currencies may benefit from a weaker dollar in the second half of the year, particularly those with high domestic market-driven economies [1][2] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could positively impact the euro, especially against the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc [4] - UBS highlights increased political uncertainty in Japan due to the ruling party's election losses, which may affect the timing of monetary policy changes [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint As the situation develops, the possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky in the near future has increased. If the leaders of the three parties meet, it could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. However, this negotiation does not include the EU, and although a certain degree of cease - fire cannot be ruled out, the two sides in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have significant differences on the cease - fire, so continuous attention to the development of the situation is needed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 47 cents to $63.88 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 46 cents to $66.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.43% at 497 yuan per barrel [2]. - Putin said that the UAE is one of the suitable locations for a meeting with Trump, and generally, he doesn't mind meeting Zelensky [3]. - The US Treasury Department issued new sanctions against Iran targeting several individuals and entities [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had phone calls with leaders of several European countries to discuss the Russia - Ukraine situation. Italian Prime Minister Meloni had phone calls with Trump, Zelensky, and UAE President Mohammed on August 7, focusing on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and calling for a cease - fire agreement. Zelensky also had a phone call with the Prime Minister of Albania and a meeting with the Romanian Foreign Minister [3]. - US President Trump is looking forward to hosting a historic peace summit at the White House with the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia, and a formal peace - signing ceremony will be held, along with the US signing bilateral agreements with these two countries [3]. Investment Logic The increasing possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but due to the exclusion of the EU and the large differences between the two sides on the cease - fire, continuous attention to the situation is required [4]. Strategy Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a historic meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, which could lead to a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although the necessity of a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky is debated [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Meeting Dynamics - Russia has expressed a high level of optimism regarding the upcoming meeting, suggesting it could be a historic event that clarifies Russia's stance to the U.S. [4][5] - The U.S. has indicated that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is not a prerequisite for the Trump-Putin meeting, although initial statements suggested otherwise [6][5]. - Both sides are actively discussing the meeting's logistics, with Russia proposing the UAE as a potential venue [4][6]. Group 2: Positions on Ceasefire - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that the initiative for ending the conflict lies with Russia, calling for a ceasefire from their side [7][10]. - European leaders, including the President of France and the Prime Minister of Italy, have expressed strong support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [8][9]. - The U.S. Secretary of State highlighted that a ceasefire and territorial issues are critical components for resolving the conflict, requiring compromises from both Ukraine and Russia [6]. Group 3: Challenges to Resolution - Despite the potential meeting, the U.S. retains the option of imposing secondary sanctions on Russia, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [11]. - Key issues such as the status of Ukraine and its military alignment remain contentious, with Ukraine still pursuing NATO membership despite U.S. opposition [11][12]. - The article suggests that a single meeting is unlikely to resolve the deep-seated differences between the parties, particularly regarding ceasefire agreements and territorial disputes [11][12].

Group 1 - The potential meeting between Russian and American presidents could mark a significant historical turning point for the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire [1][2] - Russia has expressed a high-profile stance regarding the meeting, suggesting the UAE as a possible venue and indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue [2][4] - The U.S. has not fully confirmed the meeting's details, emphasizing that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is not a prerequisite for a Trump-Putin meeting [3][4] Group 2 - Ukraine is actively engaging with European leaders to secure support, emphasizing that the initiative for ending the conflict lies with Russia [6][7] - European leaders, including the President of the European Commission and the French President, have reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine and facilitating a ceasefire [7] - The complexities of the conflict, including differing positions on ceasefire and territorial issues, indicate that achieving consensus will be challenging [9][10]

一场旨在结束已持续四年乌克兰战争的外交博弈正在加速上演，俄美元首会晤即将到来。 据央视报道，当地时间8月7日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫（Yuri Ushakov）对媒体说，根据美方提议，俄美原则上同意在近期举行两国元首会 晤。乌沙科夫说： 举行本次会晤的地点基本上已经商定。 随后，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄美双方都有意举行两国元首会晤，阿联酋是适合举行会晤的地点之一。当谈及是否会举行俄乌总统会晤时，普京 说： 我已经多次表示总体上不反对，这一会晤是有可能的，但为此需要创造一定的条件。很遗憾，距离创造出那些条件还差得远。 周四据报道，美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意在俄罗斯总统普京尚未同意与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会谈的情况下与普京会面，推翻了此前白宫官员关 于美俄会晤需以普京同意与泽连斯基会面为前提的表态。 分析认为，特朗普发出的这一信号表明，他更愿意满足克里姆林宫关于举行一对一会谈的请求。但特朗普称，他对普京的行为 "非常失望"，并表 示仍可能最早在周五就对俄罗斯施加额外惩罚。 乌克兰及其欧洲盟友担心普京可能说服特朗普在达成协议过程中做出过多让步，并对协议执行方式以及乌克兰将获得的安全保障存疑。 美方施压与停火最后通牒 在以 ...

Group 1 - Russia is considering concessions to the U.S. President Trump, including a potential "air ceasefire" agreement with Ukraine to avoid secondary sanctions, despite continuing military operations [1] - The WTI crude oil futures dropped from $65.80 to around $65, reflecting a decline of over 1.8% due to the news [1] - U.S. Middle East envoy Welker is set to meet with Russian leaders, recognizing this as one of the last opportunities to reach an agreement with Trump [4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed full support for the U.S. proposal for an "immediate ceasefire" and highlighted Ukraine's previous attempts for an "air silence" initiative [5] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of international pressure on Russia, particularly from the U.S., and the need for stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports [5] - The discussions between Zelensky and Trump focused on the potential for ending the conflict and coordinating positions on defense, sanctions, and bilateral cooperation [5]

Core Points - Russian President Putin expressed willingness to wait for Ukraine to engage in negotiations, indicating that the timing is not currently favorable for Ukraine [1] - Putin positively evaluated the previous negotiations held in Istanbul, highlighting the ongoing interest and expectations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks [1] - The first batch of "Zircon" hypersonic missiles has been completed and delivered to the military, showcasing advancements in Russia's military capabilities [1] - The conditions and objectives for resolving the Ukraine issue, proposed by Putin in June 2024, remain valid, emphasizing Russia's stance on the conflict [1] - Putin outlined specific conditions for a ceasefire, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from certain regions and a commitment not to join NATO, which would prompt Russia to announce a ceasefire and commence negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the recent agreement on prisoner exchanges and the challenges in reaching a ceasefire agreement. Group 1: Negotiation Outcomes - Russia and Ukraine have reached a consensus on exchanging over 1,200 prisoners, with both sides currently exchanging 250 prisoners each as part of the second round of negotiations [3][4][5]. - Russia has returned over 7,000 bodies to Ukraine and is willing to return an additional 3,000 if Ukraine has sufficient freezing facilities [3][4]. Group 2: Ceasefire Discussions - Russia reiterated its position that the ceasefire discussions are still far apart, but both sides agreed to continue discussions at the delegation and working group levels [12][14]. - Ukraine has signaled a willingness to cease fire, particularly in relation to critical and civilian infrastructure, but no substantial breakthroughs have been achieved in ceasefire negotiations [15][16]. Group 3: Leadership Meeting Proposals - Ukraine proposed to hold a leaders' meeting by the end of August, inviting Turkish President Erdogan and former U.S. President Trump to participate [10][9]. - Russia stated that the timing for a leaders' meeting is not yet mature and emphasized that discussions on the ceasefire agreement must be completed first [6][7][8]. Group 4: Future Negotiations - Russia expressed a desire to hold a fourth round of negotiations with Ukraine and suggested the establishment of three working groups focused on political, humanitarian, and military issues [18][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the implications of Ukraine's recent drone strike on Russian strategic airbases, which has raised concerns about escalating tensions and the potential for a prolonged conflict [1][2] - Trump expressed admiration for Ukraine's military capabilities, describing the drone strike as a "hard hit" and indicating that Ukraine has more leverage than previously thought [1] - There are fears that the drone strike could provoke a significant retaliatory response from Putin, complicating ongoing efforts for a ceasefire and direct talks between Russia and Ukraine [1][2] Group 2 - Zelensky criticized Trump indirectly, suggesting that Putin feels emboldened and is prepared for further retaliation, which undermines diplomatic efforts [2] - The White House is particularly concerned about the implications of the drone strike on Russia's nuclear-capable bombers, viewing it as a dangerous signal in the context of nuclear deterrence [2] - Despite the concerns, Trump remains impressed by Ukraine's military actions, indicating a complex view of the situation where admiration coexists with worries about the conflict's escalation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump privately admires Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia but is concerned it may hinder his ceasefire goals [1] Group 1: Trump's Perspective on Ukraine's Actions - Trump considers Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian strategic air bases as "powerful" and "bold" [1] - He believes Ukraine possesses more strategic advantages than previously thought [1] Group 2: Concerns About Escalation - Trump worries that Ukraine's actions may provoke severe retaliation from Putin [1] - He fears that such a response could obstruct his diplomatic initiatives aimed at ending the conflict [1]