Core Viewpoint - The MOEX index in Russia has surged above 2800 points, reaching a new high since September 18, reflecting market optimism regarding the resolution of the Ukraine conflict and the initiation of peace talks [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The MOEX index accelerated its rise on Monday afternoon, indicating positive market sentiment towards the potential resolution of the Ukraine conflict [1] - The index's increase is attributed to expectations of progress in negotiations to end the conflict [1] Group 2: Political Developments - U.S. President Trump reported productive phone conversations with Russian President Putin prior to his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] - Trump indicated significant progress in discussions regarding a peace agreement, covering all aspects of the negotiations [1] - He plans to maintain communication with Zelensky in the coming weeks to assess the likelihood of resolving the Ukraine crisis [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the Chicago Exchange raised margins, causing the gold price to fall in the morning. The silver price increase pushed up the gold price, but the gold price followed the silver price down. The overseas Christmas holiday may still lead to abnormal price surges, and the low gold - silver ratio provides support for the gold price. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded to - 5 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, during the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price continued to rise significantly. The news of the Chicago Exchange raising margins led to a sharp drop in the silver price in the morning. Historically, such margin hikes have caused significant silver price drops. The overseas silver price has started to fall after breaking through the 80 - dollar mark, while the Shanghai silver price may still冲击 the 20,000 - mark, with large fluctuations expected today, so cautious operation is advised. The Shanghai silver premium has continued to expand to 1,800 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Chicago Exchange raised margins, the U.S. three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, most U.S. bond yields declined (10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 0.78 basis points to 4.128%), the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.03, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0063 at night, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in macro - environment, COMEX silver futures rose 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes the summary of Japan's monetary policy opinions, the U.S. November existing - home sales, China's December regular press conference of CCPIT, the U.S. November pending home sales index, and the U.S. December Dallas Fed business activity index [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.17 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures warrants is 93,711 kg, unchanged (bearish) [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is + 181 (spot at a premium to futures, neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 852,417 kg, a decrease of 29,532 kg (bullish) [5]. 3.4. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased [5]. 3.5. Logic Analysis - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. Recent Fed rate - cuts and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and with liquidity concerns, the upward momentum of the gold price exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: It mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the price increase may expand [12]. 3.6. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Gold** - **Bullish**: The world is in turmoil with existing risk - aversion sentiment; there is still an expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns remain; the low gold - silver ratio provides support [4]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the basis shows the spot at a discount to futures; the inventory remains unchanged [4]. - **Silver** - **Bullish**: Global turmoil with risk - aversion sentiment; the expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns; support from non - ferrous metal tariffs; support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors; low spot inventory and active supply - shortage game [13]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the Fed's internal division may lead to a pause in rate - cuts; the European fiscal expansion is less than expected; the risk preference deteriorates again; the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the limited possibility of short - squeezing due to no obvious supply shortage [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of the upcoming meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, highlighting Trump's assertive stance that he holds significant influence over the outcomes of U.S.-Ukraine negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Influence and Strategy - Trump is perceived to be asserting that without his approval, Zelensky will gain nothing from the negotiations, indicating his personal control over the situation rather than a purely diplomatic approach [3]. - The article suggests that Trump's involvement in international negotiations often serves dual purposes: to exert U.S. dominance while also seeking personal or familial benefits [2]. Group 2: Negotiation Tactics - In the negotiations regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Trump proposed a tripartite operation involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, each holding one-third of the shares [6]. - Zelensky countered Trump's proposal by suggesting that only the U.S. and Ukraine should operate the plant, offering a 50-50 profit split, which reflects a strategic move to gain favor with the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Responses to Pressure - Zelensky's insistence on involving European leaders in the discussions may be seen as a misstep, as it could undermine the private negotiations Trump prefers [7]. - In response to pressures from both Trump and Putin, Zelensky is considering proposals to transform the Donbas region into a "free economic zone" and is contemplating a public referendum on the "20-point plan" to leverage public opinion against external pressures [10]. Group 4: Putin's Position - Putin's recent comments suggest a willingness to negotiate on territorial exchanges, indicating a shift from a hardline stance to a more flexible approach in the context of the ongoing conflict [9]. - This change in tone from Putin may be aimed at encouraging Trump to exert pressure on Zelensky to fulfill Russia's territorial ambitions [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the latest 20-point "peace plan" proposed by Zelensky may not signify a significant breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, as both the U.S. and Ukraine have issued statements reflecting a shared stance that lacks consensus on key issues [2][3]. - The real obstacle to negotiations lies in the territorial sovereignty of the four eastern regions of Ukraine, particularly Donbas, which the 20-point plan fails to address adequately, merely listing divergent positions from Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine [3]. - The plan includes at least six points related to Ukraine's security guarantees, indicating Zelensky's heightened sense of insecurity, as he relies on external parties like Russia and the U.S. for security assurances [5]. Group 2 - Zelensky's recent willingness to consider establishing a "free economic zone" in Donetsk represents a potential shift towards U.S. proposals, but it is contingent upon Ukraine first obtaining security guarantees [7][8]. - The ambiguity in Zelensky's statements regarding the extent of the "free economic zone" and the conditions for Russian withdrawal suggests that any perceived concessions may not be substantial [8][9]. - The idea of a "free economic zone" could provide a new approach to resolving the conflict, proposing a demilitarized zone and international oversight for security, which may facilitate future negotiations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The latest draft of Ukraine's "20-point peace plan" presented by President Zelensky faces significant challenges in gaining acceptance from Russia, particularly regarding ceasefire and security guarantees [1][3]. Summary by Categories Ceasefire Issues - Ukraine's proposal suggests a ceasefire based on the current front line, requiring international supervision for a lasting halt to hostilities. However, Russia, having maintained battlefield advantages this year, is unlikely to agree without concessions from Ukraine [1][3]. Security Guarantees - The draft emphasizes that Ukraine should not be demilitarized and aims to retain an army of 800,000 personnel. Russia's previous demands for Ukraine's demilitarization conflict with this stance, making it difficult for Russia to concede [3][5]. Territorial Disputes - A major point of contention is the territorial status of the Donbas region, which Russia and the U.S. want Ukraine to relinquish. Ukraine has shown some flexibility by considering the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" or "free economic zone," but specifics remain unclear [5][6]. NATO Membership - Ukraine's fluctuating stance on NATO membership complicates negotiations. While initially insisting on joining NATO, Zelensky has recently indicated a willingness to reconsider, yet reaffirmed the goal of NATO membership shortly after [6][8]. Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant - The ownership of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, remains disputed. The U.S. has proposed a tripartite management structure, but Ukraine prefers joint management with the U.S., while Russia currently controls the plant and is unlikely to relinquish it [6][8]. Ongoing Tensions - The situation remains tense, with recent military incidents exacerbating hostilities. The current peace proposals are seen as a means to facilitate negotiations rather than resolve all disputes at once, indicating that a ceasefire is not imminent [8][10].

Group 1 - A survey by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center indicates that over half of the Russian population believes the conflict with Ukraine may end by 2026, with 55% of respondents expressing this view [1] - Approximately two-thirds of the Russian public supports negotiations for peace, marking the highest level of support for talks since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022 [2] - The Kremlin is reportedly preparing its stance on a new draft of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan," following discussions between Russian officials and a U.S. presidential envoy [2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the core content of the latest Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, emphasizing that the terms may be modified during negotiations [2] - The Russia-Ukraine delegations recently held productive talks with U.S. officials in Florida, although specific details on negotiation progress were not disclosed [2] - Zelensky stated that all parties are "very close to a real outcome," but there are still elements that either side may not be ready to accept [2]

俄罗斯舆论研究中心当地时间24日基于一项调查说，超过半数俄罗斯民众认为俄乌冲突可能在2026年结束。 据乌克兰方面24日消息，乌总统泽连斯基在记者简报会上公布了最新版俄乌"和平计划"草案的20点内容，强调这份"框架文 件"中的条款可能在谈判过程中有修改。 俄乌代表团21日在美国佛罗里达州分别与美方官员会谈。按威特科夫说法，两场会谈"富有成效和建设性"，但他没有提及谈判 进展的细节。泽连斯基22日说，乌俄"和平计划"草案的核心内容已准备就绪，各方"非常接近真正的成果"，但仍有乌方或俄 方"没有准备"接受的内容。 俄罗斯舆论研究中心副主任米哈伊尔·马莫诺夫在年终总结中说，中心对1600名俄罗斯民众的调查显示，55%的调查对象认为， 俄罗斯有望在2026年结束对乌克兰的特别军事行动；七成调查对象认为俄罗斯2026年将比2025年"更成功"。 独立民调机构列瓦达中心的数据显示，大约三分之二俄罗斯民众支持俄乌和谈，这是乌克兰危机2022年2月全面升级以来支持和 谈民众占比最高的一次。 克里姆林宫24日说，俄总统普京听取了俄罗斯官员与美国总统特使威特科夫接触的汇报，俄方正就最新版俄乌"和平计划"草案 拟定立场。据悉，俄舆 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】欧洲多名官员近来频频向公众渲染一种"对俄战争或即将到来"的氛围。为了让北 约成员国加大军事投入，一名该组织高官也"卖惨"称，真要与俄罗斯陷入长期冲突，北约可"打不起"。 美国彭博社12月19日报道称，北约盟军海上司令部司令、英国海军中将迈克·厄特利（Mike Utley）警告 称，北约军队目前尚不具备应对一场长期冲突所需的"韧性"，这一表态凸显出欧洲尚未做好与俄罗斯进 行长期对抗的准备。 厄特利表示，西方军队需要为一个更加复杂的战场环境做好准备，这一环境不仅涵盖传统军事威胁，还 包括网络攻击等非传统安全挑战。在他看来，尽管北约在整体能力上优于俄罗斯，但并不一定具备在持 久战中维持战力的能力。 "我们是否具备所期望的韧性？我认为过去10个月的讨论已经表明，不，我们不具备。"厄特利称，"但 各国已充分认识到这一点，并愿意在相关能力建设上加大投入，以增强我们的韧性。" 显然，厄特利的目的是希望北约各成员国提高国防开支。除西班牙外，所有北约成员国今年已同意，到 2035年将至少3.5%的国内生产总值用于核心防务项目，另有1.5%投入相关领域，但实际拨款进展相对 缓慢。 厄特利表示，北约的投入最终 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the division within the European Union (EU) following U.S. President Trump's sharp criticism of Europe, with concerns that a strong response could hinder the resolution of the Ukraine crisis [1][3] - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and others advised EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to remain silent in response to Trump's criticisms [1][3] - European leaders are divided on how to respond to U.S. criticism, with some believing that maintaining U.S. involvement in Ukraine negotiations is crucial, while others feel that silence in the face of criticism is frustrating [3] Group 2 - The article mentions that the U.S. national security strategy report released earlier this month sharply criticized European allies, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over immigration policy and the Ukraine crisis [1] - Discussions among European leaders revolve around three main issues: trade agreements, NATO military spending, and military aid to Ukraine, which are seen as interconnected in the context of keeping the U.S. engaged in Europe [3] - Some officials are even considering bypassing the EU Commission to engage in bilateral negotiations with Trump, reflecting the urgency and complexity of the situation [3]

月线（长线多） 支撑：3255 周线（中线多） 支撑：4065 日线（波段多） 支撑：4230 ② 15:00 英国11月失业率 ③ 15:00 英国11月失业金申请人数 黄金 四小时（短期） ④ 16:15 法国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑤ 16:30 德国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑥ 17:00 欧元区12月制造业PMI初值 ⑦ 17:30 英国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑧ 17:30 英国12月服务业PMI初值 ⑨ 18:00 德国12月ZEW经济景气指数 ⑩ 18:00 欧元区12月ZEW经济景气指数 ⑪ 18:00 欧元区10月季调后贸易帐 ⑫ 21:30 美国11月失业率 ⑬ 21:30 美国11月季调后非农就业人口 ⑭ 21:30 美国10月零售销售月率 ⑮ 21:30 美国11月平均每小时工资年率 ⑯ 21:30 美国11月平均每小时工资月率 ⑰ 22:45 美国12月标普全球制造业PMI初值 ⑱ 22:45 美国12月标普全球服务业PMI初值 ⑲ 23:00 美国9月商业库存月率 ⑳ 次日01:45 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话 注：以上仅为个人观点策略，仅供查阅交流，没有给予客户任何投资建议， ...