Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a paradox of "index rising with shrinking volume," indicating potential risks of a false breakout, similar to historical patterns observed in March 2025 [1] Group 1: Volume-Price Divergence - The index has risen while trading volume has decreased to around 800 billion, close to the lower end of short-term liquidity [3] - Historical data suggests that a genuine breakout requires volume to increase by more than 300% and be sustained, whereas current volume is only one-third of peak levels, indicating weak buying interest from major funds [3] - A true breakout example occurred in February 2025 when a significant volume increase of 320% led to a doubling of stock prices within a month [3] Group 2: Fund Diversification - Despite a broad rise in individual stocks, the flow of funds reveals the intentions of major players, with significant concentration in a few leading stocks in the new energy sector, such as solid-state batteries and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance, have shown a decline, yet their intraday movements have artificially boosted the index, creating a "false prosperity" scenario [5] - Today's net inflow of major funds was only 42.7 billion, a significant drop compared to previous inflows that often exceeded 100 billion, with funds highly concentrated in specific sectors [5] Group 3: Technical Divergence - Three major technical indicators signal potential risks: MACD divergence, where the index rises but MACD histogram shortens, and RSI shows overbought conditions [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a critical support level [7] - A disorganized distribution of shares before the breakout, with some popular stocks showing over 30% turnover but stagnant prices, suggests potential selling by major players [7] Historical Context - A historical reference from August 2025 indicates that after a 26% volume drop, a false breakout occurred at 3700 points, leading to a subsequent retest of lower levels [8] - Investors are advised to use a "3-day confirmation" rule to assess the stability of key levels post-breakout, maintaining a conservative position [8] - A strategy of retaining leading stocks while liquidating those without performance support is recommended [8] Conclusion - The current market is in a "weak recovery" phase, characterized by a shrinking volume rise, which is more indicative of a bear market retreat rather than a strong bull market [9] - Investors should remain cautious, as 80% of breakouts are likely false, and only a combination of volume, funds, and technical analysis can help identify potential traps set by major players [9]

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是2025年 9月5日華爾街早盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看我們發現非常的有意思 那麼昨天它一度是在支撐阻力互換位附近 受到了阻礙 然後就往下面跌 那麼今天早盤時間竟然往上面沖了一下 但是依然是沒有站上去 表明著說目前這一帶 還有比較大的阻力 那麼現在又繼續往下面跌 我個人是覺得 現在出現了一個 比較有意思的情況 我們可以看一下 這個上面是一個平行的高點 下面是一個平行的低點 那麼這就看哪邊先來打到 實際上如果說 你在這個支撐阻力互換位附近 嘗試要去賭多或者賭空 我個人都認為真的就是在賭博 因為它並不是特別清晰的位置 如果說它來到這邊 做出一小時級別的假突破 在這個地方做空是可以的 如果說它沒有先上去 而是盤整盤整 然後往下面跌 把下面的平行的低點出現了跌破 然後收回來那麼一小時級別 有一根大陽線的話 就可以考慮在這邊去做多 我個人認為 如果說先來到這邊 可能會比較的好 那麼如果說反彈的話 我依然是留意0.618%之類的位置 然後在這邊看看有沒有出現頹勢 就目前來說如果說去看盤口還是看其他的 我都覺得沒有什麼參考因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK) is currently experiencing quiet trading, but there is anticipation of a potential breakout that could lead to a price increase [1]. Group 1: Trading Dynamics - Traders are assessing whether the current trading situation represents a true breakout or a false breakout, which could lead to a rapid price reversal [1]. - Resistance is defined as a price level where there is significant selling interest, which can push the price lower if sellers overpower buyers [2]. - A breakout occurs when buyers overpower sellers at resistance, leading to a bullish price movement [2]. Group 2: Resistance and Support Levels - The removal of supply from the market, as sellers cancel or complete their orders, may set the stage for a price increase [4]. - A confirmed breakout is indicated when a previous resistance level turns into support, as traders who sold at resistance buy back their shares [5]. - The $114 and $121 levels previously served as resistance before becoming support, leading to subsequent price increases [6]. Group 3: Current Focus - Traders are currently monitoring the $130 level to see if it will also transition from resistance to support, which could signal another upward movement for the stock [7].

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a strong bullish signal after breaking previous lows to fill gaps, primarily aiming to liquidate leveraged positions [1] - The analysis suggests a potential ABC three-wave pattern with a C-wave target around $110,000 (11万) or even retesting the all-time high, contingent on the strength of the A-wave and funding rates [1] - Ethereum's (以太) price action is currently lagging behind Bitcoin, suggesting it's being driven more by Bitcoin's momentum than its own intrinsic strength [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst advises against shorting Bitcoin when the funding rate is negative, as this often precedes further upward movement [1] - The analyst suggests considering long positions on Bitcoin during pullbacks, especially near the daily chart's support levels, potentially around the 618% or 66% Fibonacci retracement levels [2] - The analyst suggests caution if Bitcoin quickly approaches and breaks the all-time high with high volume, indicating a potential fakeout and subsequent correction [2] Risk Assessment - The analyst expresses concern about a potential fake breakout at the all-time high, especially if accompanied by high trading volume, which could lead to a significant pullback [2] - The analyst notes that Ethereum (以太) may not be a strong buy currently due to its underperformance compared to Bitcoin and its dependence on Bitcoin's price action [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives between technical bearishness and fundamental recovery in the palm oil market, questioning whether the recent price increase is a "false breakout" or a "true reversal" [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for palm oil prices, indicating potential downward pressure in the near term [1] - Conversely, fundamental factors are showing signs of recovery, which could support higher prices moving forward [1] Group 2: Price Movement - Palm oil has recently experienced a price increase, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] - The article highlights the importance of distinguishing between temporary price movements and long-term market trends [1]

Core Insights - The article introduces a new indicator for detecting false breakouts, aimed at enhancing trading strategies for investors [1] Group 1 - The new indicator is part of VIP's "smart money" offerings, which includes a 10% discount for new members [1] - The indicator addresses multiple trading challenges, including breakouts, reversals, consolidations, false breakouts, and trends [1]

Core Insights - Gold bulls have broken through weekly resistance, raising questions about whether this marks the beginning of a new trend or a false breakout [1] Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices indicates a strong bullish sentiment among investors [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the situation to determine if the current movement is sustainable or if it could be a temporary spike [1] - The potential for a false breakout poses risks for investors who may be entering the market at this time [1]