新华财经上海10月8日电（记者杨溢仁）7月以来，随着权益市场持续上涨，债市迎来回调。目前，30年 期国债活跃券与10年期国债活跃券的利差已升至2023年以来75%分位数以上，整体而言，纯债资产的配 置性价比有所提升。 不过不少业内人士也认为，当前债市正逐步修正过度透支的宽松预期，鉴于四季度政策性金融工具、促 消费等宽信用政策可能继续出台，则债市面临的扰动因素依旧较多，短期内"防御为主"或是更稳妥的策 略，但考虑到央行呵护资金面、重启国债买卖的可能性增大等偏多因素的存在，机构在适当控制久期水 平的同时，也可把握超跌反弹的交易机会。 债市不改弱震荡行情 "十一"长假前，银行间利率债市场收益率展开弱势震荡。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至9月30日收盘，银行间利率债市场收益率涨跌互 现。举例来看，中债国债收益率曲线3M期限下行4BP至1.34%；2年期收益率微跌1BP至1.49%；10年期 收益率行至1.86%附近。 "9月以来，债市利率不改震荡上行走势，收益率曲线走陡，主要的利空因素为中美谈判超预期、债基赎 回费面临上调促赎回压力加剧和'反内卷'情绪的阶段性升温。"财通证券研究所首席经济学家孙彬 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

Report Investment Rating - The trend rating of treasury bonds is "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to gradually strengthen in the volatility, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long. The fundamental factors are relatively certain to be favorable, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the bond market is clear. However, the price of treasury bond futures is still high, and there may be short - term disturbances. It is necessary to time the entry and adjust the adding strategy [2][16]. - After the central bank's interest rate cut, the capital interest rate center has declined rapidly, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep. The direction of the curve steepening is relatively certain, and its space is determined by the downward space of the capital interest rate, which is expected to have some room for decline but with a possibly tortuous rhythm [2][17]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Outlook 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 5th to May 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated at a high level. On Tuesday, the central bank net - withdrew a large amount of funds through reverse repurchase, the short - end varieties were weak, and the long - end varieties were slightly strong due to the expected weakening of April's economic indicators. On Wednesday, after the central bank announced the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the interest rate briefly declined, then institutions' profit - taking intention rose rapidly, and short - end varieties outperformed long - end ones. On Thursday, with the marginal loosening of the capital market and the lack of upward momentum in the stock market, treasury bond futures rose and the curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures rose in the morning but weakened in the afternoon due to the better - than - expected April export data. As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [1][13]. 1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Although the central bank announced the "double - cut" this week and the curve started to steepen, the long - end treasury bond futures did not break through upwards because the market had over - anticipated the interest rate cut and April's export data exceeded expectations. In the future, the market should gradually strengthen in the volatility, but the timing of going long should be well - grasped. Fundamental factors are favorable, but short - term disturbances may exist. It is more cost - effective to wait for pullbacks to buy [16]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 50 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 578.579 billion yuan and a net financing of 235.291 billion yuan, an increase of 443.487 billion yuan and 100.594 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 105.459 billion yuan and a net financing of 67.191 billion yuan, an increase of 12.367 billion yuan and a decrease of 25.506 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 453 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 857.920 billion yuan and a net financing of 334.360 billion yuan, an increase of 608.580 billion yuan and 420.330 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23][24]. 2.2 Secondary Market - As of May 9th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.49%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, changing by - 1.54, - 1.92, + 0.76, and + 1.35 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - financial bonds were 1.47%, 1.55%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by - 9.22, - 2.50, and + 0.31 basis points compared to last weekend [28][29]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 46,612, 70,116, 82,596, and 99,245 lots respectively, an increase of 4,851, 10,812, 16,677, and 16,030 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 149,492, 210,970, 245,395, and 132,157 lots respectively, changing by + 2,582, + 5,180, + 8,820, and - 1,496 lots compared to last weekend [36][39]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The positive - arbitrage strategy is recommended. The IRRs of T and TF have been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosened at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - arbitrage strategy became prominent. There are stable positive - arbitrage opportunities because the negative carry problem still exists in some varieties and the basis center is difficult to rise, and at the same time, some investors are actively going long on the bond market [43]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.196, - 0.340, - 0.165, and - 0.530 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.068, - 0.040, - 0.020, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend. The inter - delivery spread of TS started to rise, and its future trend is expected to be tortuous [47][48]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1,617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan. As of May 9th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.54%, 1.50%, and 1.52% respectively, down 25.91, 25.77, 26.30, and 24.30 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.34 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 85.79%, higher than last week [52][56][58]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - As of May 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.38% to 100.4218 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.37%, up 4 basis points compared to last weekend, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 274 basis points. The progress of the UK - US trade negotiation and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance in the May interest - rate meeting led to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of US Treasury yields [63]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board. As of May 9th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,446.32, 6,047.02, and 1,608.41 points respectively, down 31.89, 59.87, and 12.60 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices rose across the board. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.62, 4.40, and 8.01 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.03, 0.01, and 0.42 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [67]. 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying on pullbacks. Specific strategies include: 1) Recommend the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips. 2) Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - end varieties. 3) The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and continue to monitor the change of the capital interest rate. 4) Stop profiting from the strategy of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread in advance [2][18][68].