Core Insights - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a weakening recovery in global manufacturing [1] Regional Summaries - The PMI for Asia in July stands at 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, but remains above 50 for three consecutive months, indicating continued expansion and support for global economic recovery [1] - The PMI for Africa increased to 51.1%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking a sustained recovery in the African manufacturing sector for two months [1] - The PMI for Europe rose to 49.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last month, showing a slight improvement in recovery, although it remains slow [1] - The PMI for the Americas decreased to 48%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the U.S. PMI at 48%, the lowest this year, remaining below 50 for five consecutive months [1] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery faces significant downward pressure, with uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to insufficient effective demand in global markets [2] - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report predicts a slowdown in global trade growth from 3.4% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, emphasizing the need for countries to enhance cooperation and reduce uncertainties to boost economic recovery [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy increases the cost of nickel resource supply, but the accelerated release of Indonesia's ferronickel production capacity leads to a significant rebound in production, and the recent ferronickel price has dropped significantly, weakening the raw material cost support [2] - On the supply side, steel mills face increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts, and domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, so stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and remaining export demand pressure, downstream players are cautious and pessimistic. Domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term strong adjustment is expected. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,640 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,252 lots, down 2,038 lots; the position of the main contract is 91,742 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,533 tons, down 62 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 255 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 1,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - China's monthly ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries without a trade agreement starting July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement them on August 1. The upper - limit tariff (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April [2] - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising slightly for two consecutive months [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has great uncertainty, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in the Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressure in Yunnan's production area are intertwined; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic installations, the operating rate of some manufacturers has decreased; the electronics industry has entered the off - season, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Recently, the tin price has回调, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, the trading is light, and most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants increase, the premium rises, and the strong LME tin drives up the domestic price. Technically, there is a decline with reduced positions, breaking below the M10 support and returning to the previous range. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily, with a reference range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,198 tons (weekly), an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strip) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - US President Trump said that starting from July 4, the US government will issue notifications of new tariff rates to countries that have not reached trade agreements, with the tariff range from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement it on August 1. The upper limit of this tariff (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April. The data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the recovery strength of the global economy has increased [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. - On the smelting side, the current high raw material prices and the downward trend of nickel prices have led to profit losses for other smelters, and some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production. - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has been compressed, and the 300 - series has reduced production. The demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is small and the impact is limited. - Recently, both supply and demand are weak. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and domestic inventory has decreased, while overseas inventory remains stable. - Technically, the position has decreased. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,730 yuan/ton. The 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,260 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 95 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 69,366 lots, a decrease of 441 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 6,296 lots, a decrease of 1,846 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,922 tons, an increase of 204 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 8,502 tons, unchanged. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,832 tons, a decrease of 227 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,450 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,550 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 189.09 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, an increase of 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 871.84 million tons, an increase of 112.61 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.39 million metal tons, an increase of 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 84.82 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, a decrease of 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.35 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - US President Trump said that starting from July 4, the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries that have not reached trade agreements, with the tariff range from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement them from August 1. The upper limit of this tariff rate (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April. - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the continuous small increase for two months reflects that the recovery strength of the global economy has rebounded [3].

Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating a continued contraction but a slight recovery trend [1] - The World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global economic environment [1] Regional Manufacturing Performance Asia - The Asian manufacturing PMI reached 50.7 in June 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating expansion and improved recovery [3] - The ongoing trade agreements, such as the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and the continued economic exchanges between China and ASEAN, are crucial for sustaining growth in the region [3] Americas - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas was 48.6 in June 2025, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from May, but still indicating contraction [2] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49% in June, up 0.5 percentage points from May, ending a four-month decline but remaining below the expansion threshold [2] Europe - Europe's manufacturing PMI was 48.8 in June 2025, a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from May, continuing a slow recovery trend [2] - The European Central Bank may implement more supportive policies to stimulate economic recovery due to the ongoing weak performance [2] Africa - The African manufacturing PMI was 49.7 in June 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point from May, but still in contraction territory [4] - The reliance on natural resource exports continues to hinder Africa's economic recovery, necessitating a shift towards internal growth drivers [4]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery trend but still below the expansion threshold of 50% [1] - The manufacturing sector in Asia is operating in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, contributing positively to global economic recovery [1] - The Americas, Africa, and Europe are all in the contraction zone, with PMIs of 48.6%, 49.7%, and 48.8% respectively, although all regions show varying degrees of improvement compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the global economic recovery continues to face downward pressure, with uncertainty being a common theme among countries discussing recovery paths [2] - Strengthening multilateral cooperation and solidifying the foundation of global market demand is identified as a key direction for ensuring stable global economic recovery [2]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery but still within the contraction zone [1] - The index has increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies continue to exert downward pressure on global economic recovery [1] Summary by Category Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI for June stands at 49.5%, reflecting a minor increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - This marks the second consecutive month of a slight rise in the index, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing activity [1] Economic Recovery - The data indicates that the recovery of the global economy is gaining some momentum, although it remains fragile [1] - The manufacturing sector is still facing challenges due to external factors such as trade policies and geopolitical conflicts [1]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that it has remained below 50% for three consecutive months, suggesting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI is at 48.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, marking a slow recovery trend over five months, although the recovery remains weak with the index hovering around 48% [1] - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas is reported at 48.4%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued contraction in the region's manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for Asia stands at 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a return to expansion despite facing challenges such as U.S. tariffs [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Africa is reported at 48.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a weakening recovery momentum in the region [1] - Analysts suggest that U.S. tariffs continue to disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty and limiting long-term planning for businesses, which may weaken the global economic recovery capacity in the short term [2]