"因此，随着当前有利的环境延续到2026年，配置不足的投资者可以考虑增加股票敞口。"瑞银看好美国 科技、医疗保健、公用事业和银行板块，并认为"欧洲领军者"有望受益于政策和结构性增长。在亚太地 区，看好澳大利亚、日本和中国，尤其是中国科技板块。 尽管全球股票估值仍处于历史高位，但估值溢价主要归因于基准权重中估值较高板块的增长。瑞银还认 为，盈利增长才是衡量未来回报的更重要指标，预期主要市场明年的盈利增长将在7%-14%的稳健水 平，为短期上行提供支持。 人民财讯12月4日电，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)表示，随着美联储进一步降息，且增长将在明 年下半年重新加速，当前经济环境有利于全球股市。从历史上看，当经济没有衰退且美联储降息时，股 票表现最佳，而最新的经济数据表明目前正处于有利环境。美国经济目前的疲态可能是暂时性现象，全 球增长应在2026年加速。强劲的盈利增长预期应推动股市进一步上涨。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures are nearly flat, and international stock markets show mixed results as investors pause after a rally on Monday [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock futures indicate a stable market outlook, remaining just shy of flat [1] - International stock markets are experiencing mixed performance, reflecting varied investor sentiment [1] - The market reaction follows a significant rally on Monday, suggesting a moment of consolidation among investors [1]

Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed Markets also up by 1.9%, and MSCI Emerging Markets rising by 2.2% [4][8] - Among developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 5.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.3% [8] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with an increase of 8.0%, while the Mexican MXX Index was the worst performer, declining by 1.0% [8] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume decreased across global markets, with the VIX index showing a rapid decline [19] - In terms of investor sentiment, the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks decreased to 15.8%, indicating a historical low sentiment level, while the North American sentiment index rose to 90.4%, reflecting a high sentiment level [19][26] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the US tech sector were revised upward during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted from 268 to 269 [63] - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 increased from 2059 to 2061 [63] - In contrast, the European market's earnings expectations remained flat, with the STOXX50 Index's EPS forecast for 2025 unchanged at 332 [64] Economic Outlook - Major market economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising [4][63] - The rise in these indices was attributed to factors such as the potential end of the US government shutdown, easing inflation expectations, and improved US-China negotiations [4] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations confirmed by recent economic data [46][50] - In terms of liquidity, there was a notable inflow of funds into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a total inflow of 210 billion USD into these markets in September [55][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a recent positive development in the market, indicating an upward adjustment that could benefit investors and the overall industry [3]. Group 1 - The announcement of an upward adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and investor confidence [3]. - This adjustment may lead to increased investment opportunities within the sector, potentially driving growth and profitability for companies involved [3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these developments closely, as they could influence future market trends and investment strategies [3].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are anticipating consumer price data to provide insights into the potential pace of interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The upcoming consumer price data is expected to influence market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global stock price momentum is likely to continue, supported by a soft landing of the economy, robust corporate earnings, and lower interest rates over the next 12 months [1] - Corporate earnings have consistently exceeded expectations, providing justification for high stock market valuations, indicating that the market is not in a bubble [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets present selective opportunities, with an upward revision of the S&P 500 index targets supported by strong earnings and improved valuations, as macro tail risks diminish [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The year-end target for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,350-6,450 points, while the 12-month target is projected at 6,650-6,750 points [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company recommends global diversification, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, and focusing on sectors benefiting from long-term growth trends and strong earnings momentum [1] - Technology and financial sectors remain favored by the firm [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about global stock markets, defense sector, and gold, projecting that gold prices will reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Global Stock Markets - UBS expresses a positive outlook on global stock markets, indicating confidence in their performance over the coming years [1] Group 2: Defense Sector - The firm highlights the defense sector as a favorable investment area, suggesting potential growth and stability in this industry [1] Group 3: Gold Prices - UBS forecasts that gold prices will increase significantly, estimating a rise to $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a bullish sentiment on precious metals [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS recommends buying on dips, expecting only a mild market correction. The firm remains optimistic about global equities, defense, and gold, forecasting gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on global stock markets [1] - The firm sees potential in the defense sector [1] - UBS projects gold prices to rise significantly, reaching $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1]