Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady development and tangible results of cooperation among China, Russia, and Mongolia, with a commitment to high-quality development despite external interferences [1] - The China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor has made significant progress, injecting strong momentum into regional prosperity through practical economic cooperation [1][2] - Bilateral trade between China and Russia has shown robust growth, with trade volume increasing from $69.5 billion in 2016 to $244.8 billion in 2024, averaging an annual growth rate of 17.0% [1] Group 2 - China's direct investment in Russia remains stable at over $10 billion, covering various sectors including mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, with notable growth in research and technology services [2] - Mongolia has attracted $5.44 billion in Chinese foreign investment, accounting for 16.3% of its total foreign investment, primarily in the mining sector [2] - Infrastructure connectivity along the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor has significantly improved, with national-level ports constituting about one-third of the total, and cargo volumes at key ports like Manzhouli and Erenhot exceeding 45 million tons in 2024 [2][3] Group 3 - The construction of various open platforms is progressing steadily, with over 30 special customs supervision areas established, enhancing regional cooperation [3] - The future of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is promising, with vast cooperation potential in infrastructure, energy development, modern agriculture, and digital economy [3] - There is a call for further strategic alignment, policy communication, and enhancement of both hard and soft connectivity to expand cooperation in emerging fields such as green technology and health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August maintained overall stability and progressed steadily under the strong leadership of the central government, with a focus on implementing macroeconomic policies and promoting domestic circulation [1][9]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with manufacturing growing by 5.7% [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.1% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, indicating a stable production outlook [2]. Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25% of total retail sales [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In August, the total import and export value was 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [6]. - From January to August, general trade grew by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of total trade [6]. Group 6: Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [7]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [7]. Group 7: Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, with food prices dropping significantly [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [8].

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August showed overall stability and progress, supported by strong leadership and effective macroeconomic policies [1][10]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% respectively [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed well, with added value growth of 8.1% and 9.3%, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 53.7 [2]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and leasing services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.4% year-on-year from January to July [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.0% of total retail sales [4]. - The consumption upgrade policy showed positive effects, with significant growth in categories like furniture and home appliances [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [5][6]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced substantial investment growth of 34.1% and 28.0% respectively [6]. Group 5: Trade and Employment - In August, the total import and export value reached 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [7]. - The average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [8]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight inflationary trend [9].

Core Insights - Guizhou listed companies have shown significant growth in both revenue and net profit, with 25 companies reporting profits and 19 companies achieving year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou listed companies achieved a total revenue of 172.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.03% and a 52.29% increase compared to the same period in 2021 [2] - The revenue growth rate of Guizhou listed companies is ranked 4th nationally and 3rd in the western region, surpassing the GDP growth rate of Guizhou by 0.73 percentage points [2] - Among these companies, 18 have revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, and 6 have revenues exceeding 5 billion yuan, with Kweichow Moutai leading at 89.39 billion yuan [2] Profitability - Guizhou listed companies reported a total net profit of 50.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, ranking 9th nationally and 2nd in the western region, with a year-on-year increase of 5.37% and a 60.45% increase compared to 2021 [3] - 71.43% of the companies reported profits, with Kweichow Moutai again leading at 45.40 billion yuan [3] Innovation and R&D - A total of 33 Guizhou listed companies disclosed R&D expenditures, totaling 2.52 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year and a 70.18% increase compared to 2021 [4] - 6 companies reported R&D expenditures exceeding 100 million yuan, with Zhongwei Co. leading at 545 million yuan [4] International Business - 13 companies reported overseas business income totaling 18.29 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% year-on-year increase, with Zhongwei Co. achieving 10.78 billion yuan in overseas revenue [5] Investor Returns - In the first half of 2025, 7 Guizhou listed companies announced interim dividend plans, with a total dividend amount of 591 million yuan, nearly quadrupling from the previous year [7] - 8 companies engaged in share buybacks, investing a total of 7.14 billion yuan, ranking 6th nationally [7]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, overall stability in employment and prices, and significant achievements in high-quality development [2][11]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [3]. - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively [3]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises from January to June was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, indicating stable business conditions [4]. Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 70,790 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [7]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [7]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - Exports grew by 8.0%, while imports increased by 4.8% [8]. Group 6: Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, with a seasonal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were 48.5 hours [9]. Group 7: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [11].

Economic Overview - In July, macro policies showed effectiveness, allowing the national economy to maintain a stable and progressive development trend despite complex external environments and extreme weather conditions [1][10] - The economy demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and new achievements in high-quality development [1][10] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 34,365 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [2] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [3] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, indicating stable activity levels [3] Retail Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [5] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [7] - Exports grew by 8.0%, while imports increased by 4.8% [7] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to July, with a slight increase in July [8] - The average weekly working hours for employed persons were 48.5 hours [8] Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [9] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure [9]

Economic Overview - In July, the national economy maintained a steady growth trend, with industrial production increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [30][31] - The mining industry saw a value-added growth of 5.0%, manufacturing grew by 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 3.3% [31] Industrial Production - Among the 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in value-added, with notable increases in black metal smelting and rolling (8.6%), non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (6.8%), and general equipment manufacturing (8.4%) [3][31] - High-tech manufacturing experienced a significant growth of 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [31] Product Output - In July, out of 623 industrial products, 335 saw a year-on-year increase in output, including steel (12.295 million tons, up 6.4%), ethylene (3.12 million tons, up 9.1%), and automobiles (2.51 million units, up 8.4%) [4][5] - New energy vehicles production rose by 17.1%, indicating a strong demand in the electric vehicle sector [7] Sales and Exports - The sales rate of industrial enterprises was 97.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the export delivery value reached 1.2904 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% [5][7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan in the first seven months, with manufacturing investment growing by 6.2% [34] - High-tech industries such as aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing saw substantial investment growth, with increases of 33.9% and 16.0% respectively [34] Trade Performance - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports growing by 8.0% [35] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total trade, reflecting an increase in their participation in the market [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI global index up by 1.3%, MSCI developed markets up by 1.4%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 0.7% [3] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance (+4.1%), while S&P/ASX 200 was the weakest (-1.0%) [3] - In emerging markets, ChiNext Index was the best performer (+2.8%), while India’s Sensex 30 was the worst (-0.4%) [3] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in Hong Kong and European markets, while it decreased in the US market [10][11] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a trading volume of 186 billion shares and a turnover of 705.5 billion USD, reflecting a week-on-week increase [11] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong decreased to 11.5%, indicating high investor sentiment [11] Valuation - Developed markets' overall valuation improved, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 23.8x and 3.8x, respectively, placing them in the 93% and 100% percentile levels since 2010 [13] - Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest PE ratios at 43.1x and 32.0x, respectively [13] - Emerging markets also saw a valuation increase, with PE and PB ratios at 16.5x and 2.0x, respectively, in the 86% and 92% percentile levels since 2010 [14] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations tightened, with significant capital inflows into France, Germany, and India, while outflows were noted from the US [19][21] - In Hong Kong, a total of 21.3 billion HKD flowed into the market, with stable foreign capital inflows of 13.4 billion HKD [21] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's consumer sector saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2215 to 2210 [22] - The US S&P 500's earnings expectations remained stable at 265, while the Eurozone's STOXX50 index saw a slight downward adjustment from 338 to 337 [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's economy demonstrates strong resilience and stable growth despite increasing international economic uncertainties, with a GDP growth of 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, achieving the goal of "half the time, half the task" [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Shanghai's industrial added value increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with total industrial output value growing by 5.6%, accelerating by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The manufacturing output of key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment grew by 21.7%, while the aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 18.1% [2] - High-tech manufacturing output rose by 16.0%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth, with integrated circuits and artificial intelligence sectors growing by 11.7% and 12.3% respectively [2][3] Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The tertiary industry in Shanghai saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in added value, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 14.6% [5] - The financial sector also performed well, with an 8.8% increase in added value, contributing over 60% to the city's GDP growth [5] - The software and IT services industry reported a 27.1% increase in revenue from January to May, with AI-related IT consulting services revenue growing by 130% [5] Group 3: Consumer Market Recovery - Shanghai's retail sales of consumer goods showed signs of recovery, with a 1.7% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, marking a 2.8 percentage point increase from the first quarter [7] - Specific categories such as furniture and home appliances saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 18.8% and 18.7% respectively [7] - The fixed asset investment in Shanghai rose by 6.2% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 19.8% [7] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's total import and export volume grew by 2.4% in the first half of the year, with exports increasing by 11.1% and imports decreasing by 3.6% [8] - The export of intermediate goods surged by 20.5%, contributing significantly to overall export growth [8] - The city saw a notable increase in foreign investment, with 30 new multinational company regional headquarters and 19 foreign R&D centers recognized in the first half of the year [9] Group 5: Innovation and Development - The number of valid invention patents in Shanghai reached 293,700, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation [4] - The logistics and transportation sectors also showed improvement, with cargo transport turnover and international container throughput increasing by 7.5% and 6.1% respectively [9] - Overall, Shanghai's economy is characterized by enhanced innovation momentum and resilience, with ongoing efforts to stimulate market vitality and foster new growth engines [9]