值得一提的是，贵州所有上市公司营业收入整体增速高于贵州省同期GDP增速，远高于全部A股公司的 整体增速，各公司营业收入规模占同期贵州省GDP比例为15.04%，较2021年同期占比提升2.57个百分 点，贵州上市公司对区域经济社会发展的引领和推动作用显著提升。 盈利稳步提升5年复合增长率全国第1 近日，贵州辖区各上市公司完成2025年上半年报告披露，25家公司实现盈利，19家公司实现营业收入同 比提升，过去5年同期的归母净利润和营业收入2项复合增长率分别位居全国第1位和第2位。 在营业收入方面，贵州上市公司2025年上半年整体实现营业收入1722.85亿元，同比增长6.03%、较2021 年同期增长52.29%；2025年上半年营收增速，位于全国第4位、西部地区第3位，高于贵州省同期GDP 增速0.73个百分点。与全国整体比较看，2021年—2025年半年度，贵州上市公司营收保持连续正增长， 以11.09%的复合增长率位居全国第2位。 在贵州上市公司中，有18家企业营收规模超10亿元、6家企业营收规模超50亿元。其中，贵州茅台 （600519）以893.89亿元位居首位、中伟股份（300919）以213.23 ...

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, overall stability in employment and prices, and significant achievements in high-quality development [2][11]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [3]. - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively [3]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises from January to June was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, indicating stable business conditions [4]. Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 70,790 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [7]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [7]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - Exports grew by 8.0%, while imports increased by 4.8% [8]. Group 6: Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, with a seasonal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were 48.5 hours [9]. Group 7: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [11].

总的来看，7月份宏观政策发力显效，国民经济克服外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响，保 持稳中有进发展态势，展现出较强韧性和活力。 8月15日，据国家统计局网站，7月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真 贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构 建新发展格局，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济保持稳中 有进发展态势，生产需求持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新质生产力培育壮大，高质量发展取得新成 效。 一、工业生产较快增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业发展较好 7月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%，环比增长0.38%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比 增长5.0%，制造业增长6.2%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长3.3%。装备制造业增加值同比 增长8.4%，高技术制造业增加值增长9.3%，分别快于全部规模以上工业增加值2.7和3.6个百分点。分经 济类型看，国有控股企业增加值同比增长5.4%；股份制企业增长6.5%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长 2.8%；私营企业增长5.0%。分产品看，3D打印设 ...

7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.7%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，7月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.38%。1—7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.3%。 分产品看，7月份，规模以上工业623种产品中有335种产品产量同比增长。其中，钢材12295万吨，同比增长6.4%；水泥14557万吨，下降5.6%；十种有色金 属681万吨，增长2.2%；乙烯312万吨，增长9.1%；汽车251.0万辆，增长8.4%，其中新能源汽车117.6万辆，增长17.1%；发电量9267亿千瓦时，增长3.1%； 原油加工量6306万吨，增长8.9%。 7月份，规模以上工业企业产品销售率为97.1%，同比下降0.2个百分点；规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值12904亿元，同比名义增长0.8%。 2025年7月份规模以上工业生产主要数据 | | 7月 | | 1—7月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 同比增长 | | 同比增长 | | | 绝对量 | | 绝对量 | | | 规模以上工业增加值 | … | （%） 5.7 | … | （ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI global index up by 1.3%, MSCI developed markets up by 1.4%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 0.7% [3] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance (+4.1%), while S&P/ASX 200 was the weakest (-1.0%) [3] - In emerging markets, ChiNext Index was the best performer (+2.8%), while India’s Sensex 30 was the worst (-0.4%) [3] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in Hong Kong and European markets, while it decreased in the US market [10][11] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a trading volume of 186 billion shares and a turnover of 705.5 billion USD, reflecting a week-on-week increase [11] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong decreased to 11.5%, indicating high investor sentiment [11] Valuation - Developed markets' overall valuation improved, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 23.8x and 3.8x, respectively, placing them in the 93% and 100% percentile levels since 2010 [13] - Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest PE ratios at 43.1x and 32.0x, respectively [13] - Emerging markets also saw a valuation increase, with PE and PB ratios at 16.5x and 2.0x, respectively, in the 86% and 92% percentile levels since 2010 [14] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations tightened, with significant capital inflows into France, Germany, and India, while outflows were noted from the US [19][21] - In Hong Kong, a total of 21.3 billion HKD flowed into the market, with stable foreign capital inflows of 13.4 billion HKD [21] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's consumer sector saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2215 to 2210 [22] - The US S&P 500's earnings expectations remained stable at 265, while the Eurozone's STOXX50 index saw a slight downward adjustment from 338 to 337 [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's economy demonstrates strong resilience and stable growth despite increasing international economic uncertainties, with a GDP growth of 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, achieving the goal of "half the time, half the task" [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Shanghai's industrial added value increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with total industrial output value growing by 5.6%, accelerating by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The manufacturing output of key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment grew by 21.7%, while the aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 18.1% [2] - High-tech manufacturing output rose by 16.0%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth, with integrated circuits and artificial intelligence sectors growing by 11.7% and 12.3% respectively [2][3] Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The tertiary industry in Shanghai saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in added value, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 14.6% [5] - The financial sector also performed well, with an 8.8% increase in added value, contributing over 60% to the city's GDP growth [5] - The software and IT services industry reported a 27.1% increase in revenue from January to May, with AI-related IT consulting services revenue growing by 130% [5] Group 3: Consumer Market Recovery - Shanghai's retail sales of consumer goods showed signs of recovery, with a 1.7% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, marking a 2.8 percentage point increase from the first quarter [7] - Specific categories such as furniture and home appliances saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 18.8% and 18.7% respectively [7] - The fixed asset investment in Shanghai rose by 6.2% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 19.8% [7] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's total import and export volume grew by 2.4% in the first half of the year, with exports increasing by 11.1% and imports decreasing by 3.6% [8] - The export of intermediate goods surged by 20.5%, contributing significantly to overall export growth [8] - The city saw a notable increase in foreign investment, with 30 new multinational company regional headquarters and 19 foreign R&D centers recognized in the first half of the year [9] Group 5: Innovation and Development - The number of valid invention patents in Shanghai reached 293,700, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation [4] - The logistics and transportation sectors also showed improvement, with cargo transport turnover and international container throughput increasing by 7.5% and 6.1% respectively [9] - Overall, Shanghai's economy is characterized by enhanced innovation momentum and resilience, with ongoing efforts to stimulate market vitality and foster new growth engines [9]

Group 1 - Yunnan province is implementing various employment measures, including promoting return-to-hometown entrepreneurship, e-commerce startups, and leveraging特色产业 to create new employment channels and growth points [1][5] - The Yunnan provincial government has issued the "15 Measures" to support employment, focusing on enhancing industrial strength, enterprise growth, and employment stability [1][3] - The employment priority strategy aims to ensure at least 500,000 new urban jobs annually and maintain rural labor transfer employment at over 15 million [3][4] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Yunnan's employment monitoring showed 365,000 employees in 901 surveyed companies, with the wholesale and retail sector experiencing the highest reduction in employment at 1.16% [2] - The "Unemployment Insurance Policy" allows eligible companies to apply for unemployment insurance refunds, with large enterprises receiving 30% and small to medium enterprises receiving 60% of their contributions back [3][4] - The province plans to conduct over 1 million training sessions annually, with at least 500,000 being subsidized vocational skills training [4] Group 3 - The "Return-to-Hometown Entrepreneurship Measures" encourage young graduates to engage in e-commerce, fostering the development of e-commerce industry clusters and promoting high-quality employment [5][6] - The measures focus on highland特色农业, cultural tourism, and cross-border e-commerce, while also emphasizing the training of e-commerce skills [6] - A project library for e-commerce startups will be established, providing financial support and mentorship for promising projects, with annual selections of exemplary returnee entrepreneurs [6]