几周之前曾被热议的中国资产重估逻辑，还继续有效吗？ 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 4 月 2 日特朗普签署所谓 "对等关税" 行政令，宣布 美国对所有贸易伙伴加征 10% 的 "最低基准关 税"， 并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中给中国的 "对等关税" 税率达到 34%。此后连续三个交易 日（至 4 月 7 日），全球金融市场暴跌，美国股市蒸发了超过 6 万亿美元。港股则在 4 月 7 日抹平了 开年以来所有涨幅，上证指数创下 8 年来最大单日跌幅。 本周，中美关税争端还在继续升级。4 月 8 日，美国针对中国政府的坚决反制，报复性地宣布对中国 输美商品征收 "对等关税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 中国并不示弱，4 月 9 日反制进一步升级 ——对美加征关税税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 "这是一个史诗般的经济和市场事件。" 美国著名基金经理比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在上周表示，本 轮美国关税政策调整的影响，形同 1971 年和金本位制的终结但会带来直接的负面后果，因此他呼吁 投资者不应该试图 "接下落的刀"。 反映市场波动率的芝加哥期权交易所 VIX 指数，也被称为 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed resilience despite a significant drop in the Asia-Pacific stock markets due to the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs," with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding during the trading session [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but managed to rise, with the Shanghai 50 Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index performing well, driven by strong bank stocks and rising chip stocks respectively [1]. - On March 4, the Shanghai 50 Index recorded a slight increase of 4.54 points, or 0.17%, with a trading volume of 432.09 billion [2]. Sector Performance - The consumer sector saw notable gains, with industries such as tourism, agriculture, and liquor leading the way in terms of percentage increase [3]. - Specific sectors that performed well included: - Animal Health: +5.41% - Tourism and Scenic Areas: +2.50% - Hotel and Catering: +1.83% - Agriculture: +1.00% [3]. Economic Policy Context - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and enhancing investment efficiency as a key task for 2025, as outlined in the national government work report [4]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of domestic demand in light of external shocks from tariff increases, leading to expectations of policy measures to stimulate consumption [5]. Consumer Trends - The transformation and upgrading of consumer spending in China are driven by two main factors: historical growth in production capacity and the need for domestic demand to stabilize the economy amid global uncertainties [5]. - The outlook for consumer spending is positive, with potential for significant growth driven by enhanced consumer confidence and long-term structural changes in the economy [5]. Key Consumer Areas - Five leading areas for consumer spending upgrades have been identified: 1. Technology durable goods, with a demand space of trillions of yuan 2. Culture and tourism, currently the fastest-growing consumption sector 3. Silver economy and healthcare, with strong potential due to an aging population 4. Real estate upgrades, with a demand for hundreds of millions of square meters in old housing renovations 5. Scarce gold, which is experiencing a global central bank buying trend, appealing for both value preservation and consumption [6].