美中"突破性"贸易协议达成，协议大幅削减了双方的互征关税，并启动了一项为期90天的"冷静期"—— 高盛分析师Philip Sun表示，这一举措很可能引发美国港口进口激增。与左翼企业媒体炒作的"空港""空 货架"危言耸听的标题不同，即将到来的进口商抢跑潮揭示了这些说法不过是误导和虚假信息。 这项90天的关税暂停于上周三开始实施。这意味着特朗普总统此前对中国产品征收的145%关税将被削 减至30%，而中国方面也将其关税从125%降至10%。这一贸易谈判的突破是在美国财政部长Scott Bessent上周末在瑞士与中国贸易代表进行高风险会谈后达成的。 现在，美国进口商已获得一段明确的、进口成本大幅下降的三个月窗口期。高盛的Sun曾提出："想象一 下：在这90天的关税暂停期内，中国出口商和美国进口商将多么急切地下订单？" 他接着又问道："我们生活在一个高度不确定的世界里。谁知道90天后（甚至在此期间）会发生什么？ 像沃尔玛这样的企业是否应该尽可能多地囤积圣诞商品，也许不仅是为2025年准备，甚至是为2026 年？" 这些问题都很有见地。 Sun随后给出了自己问题的大胆预测："在接下来的90天里，中国的出口将异常火爆。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in container shipping orders from China to the U.S. following the announcement of a phased consensus on tariffs between the two countries, with orders surging nearly 300% [1][3] - Data from Vizion indicates that the average container orders from China to the U.S. rose to 21,530 TEUs in the week ending May 14, compared to only 5,709 TEUs in the previous week, marking a 277% increase [1] - Major shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, reported increased booking volumes for trans-Pacific services, with Hapag-Lloyd noting a 50% rise in orders within the first three days of the week following the tariff announcement [3] Group 2 - The logistics company Portless stated that the agreement between the U.S. and China has allowed Chinese factories to resume orders and shipments, with clients indicating a shift to full production mode [3] - Analysts predict that the suspension of most tariffs may lead to a rise in freight rates, with estimates suggesting a potential 50% increase in shipping costs within the next ten days [3][4] - The CEO of Bogg Bag mentioned accelerating production of bags from China to meet demand before the potential tariff increase in August, indicating a strategic shift in manufacturing focus [4] Group 3 - Freightos warned shippers to prepare for congestion, delays, and capacity shortages in the coming weeks, as the Los Angeles port, the busiest in the U.S., is expected to experience increased activity [4] - The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles expressed that the 90-day tariff suspension is beneficial for consumers, U.S. businesses, workers, and the supply chain [4]

中美贸易休战引爆"超级抢运"潮，大幅降低的关税将催生90天疯狂进口周期。 在另一份报告中，杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师指出，中美之间跨太平洋航线的货运费率已从4月中旬的每四 十英尺等量单位2,000美元飙升至本周的约2,500美元： 5月12日，中国商务部发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美各取消了共计91%的加征关税，暂 停实施24%的反制关税90天。面对未来90天大幅降低的进口成本，高盛分析师Sun预测这将引发一波涌 向美国港口的进口潮。根据停靠美国港口的集装箱船的实时照来看，拥挤趋势已经显现。 高盛分析师周二提出了关键问题——在90天关税暂停期内，中国出口商和美国进口商将多么急切地争相 下订单： 我们生活在一个高度不确定的世界。谁知道90天后会发生什么？沃尔玛们是否应该尽可能多 地储备圣诞商品，也许不仅是为了2025年，甚至可能为2026年做准备？ 无独有偶，野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺则在周一的报告中写道： 由于许多中国出口商可能在4月份暂停了对美国的出货，关税的大幅下调可能会引发一波积 压出口潮。 释放积压需求，航运费率将飙升 货运代理商如达飞轮船(CMA CGM SA)将90天暂停期和中 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates expectations for a Fed rate cut in May or June due to anticipated economic slowdown [10]. Core Insights - The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, does not prevent a slowdown in US economic growth and inflation [4][10]. - The average effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 21 percentage points from the beginning of the year, raising concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on growth [4][6]. - A surge in non-China imports is expected, which may dampen growth in Q2 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The baseline 10% tariff remains in place against all countries, with significant increases for many [6]. - New tariffs of 105% on Chinese goods are in addition to existing tariffs, contributing to a high effective tariff rate [6]. - Sector-specific tariffs on autos, aluminum, and steel are still enforced, with new tariffs anticipated on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6]. Economic Forecast - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth, leading to potential Fed policy rate cuts of 125 basis points this year [10]. - The dynamics of the 90-day tariff pause may lead to a temporary surge in imports, affecting Q2 growth negatively [9]. - Consumer spending may initially strengthen in Q2 but is expected to slow down in Q3 due to ongoing uncertainty [9].

Group 1 - StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) shares rose 14.8% to $48.74, following a significant trading volume, contrasting with a 16.6% loss over the past four weeks [1][2] - The increase in share price was influenced by the Trump administration's announcement of a 90-day halt on reciprocal tariffs for most countries [2] - StepStone leverages global scale, local teams, multi-asset class expertise, and proprietary data platforms to provide customized solutions, enhancing investment performance [2] Group 2 - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 42.4%, while revenues are projected at $237.41 million, down 33.5% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for StepStone has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without earnings estimate revisions [4] - StepStone Group holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive market sentiment [4] Group 3 - StepStone Group is part of the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which includes Greystone Housing Impact Investors (GHI) [4] - GHI's consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 29.2% over the past month, with a year-over-year change of -61.9%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]

Blackstone Inc. (BX) shares ended the last trading session 14.4% higher at $137.36. The jump came on an impressive volume with a higher-than-average number of shares changing hands in the session. This compares to the stock's 13.1% loss over the past four weeks.Blackstone shares rallied sharply as markets responded positively to President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension for non-retaliating countries. The move alleviated trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving a notable sur ...

Company Overview - Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) shares increased by 15.3% to $17.94 in the last trading session, following a 20.2% loss over the previous four weeks [1] - The stock's rally is attributed to President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, aimed at stabilizing markets and addressing global trade concerns [1] Earnings Expectations - Gates Industrial is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.5% [2] - Revenue projections for the upcoming report are $826.29 million, which is a decrease of 4.2% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Market Trends - Trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, indicating the importance of monitoring these changes [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for Gates Industrial has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting that the stock's price movement may not sustain without earnings estimate revisions [4] Industry Context - Gates Industrial is part of the Zacks Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, where another company, Nordson (NDSN), saw an 11.8% increase in its stock price, closing at $187.29, despite a -18.7% return over the past month [4] - Nordson's consensus EPS estimate has also remained unchanged at $2.36, with a year-over-year change of 0.9% [5]

Company Overview - New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) shares increased by 5.2% to close at $5.66, following a significant trading volume compared to normal sessions, despite a 19.2% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 136.7%, with revenues projected at $22.91 million, up 28.3% from the previous year [3] Market Context - The surge in NYMT's stock price is attributed to a broader market rally, driven by optimism from Trump's announcement on April 9, 2025, regarding a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, excluding China [2] - The tariff pause is expected to alleviate cost pressures, improving margins and profitability for mREIT stocks, thereby boosting investor confidence in NYMT [2] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for NYMT has been revised 3.9% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] - NYMT currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting favorable market sentiment towards the stock [4] Industry Comparison - In the same REIT and Equity Trust industry, BrightSpire (BRSP) also saw a 4.4% increase in its stock price, closing at $4.74, although it has experienced a -22.5% return over the past month [4]

Company Overview - U.S. Bancorp (USB) shares increased by 8% to close at $39.30, following a period of 12.4% loss over the past four weeks, indicating a significant recovery in stock performance [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10%, with revenues projected at $6.92 billion, up 3.6% from the previous year [3] Market Impact - The price surge was influenced by President Donald Trump's announcement on April 9, 2025, regarding a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, excluding China, which alleviated concerns about trade wars and improved the economic outlook [2] - Despite the recent price increase, the consensus EPS estimate for U.S. Bancorp has been revised 1.7% lower in the last 30 days, suggesting caution as negative trends in earnings estimate revisions typically do not lead to price appreciation [4] Industry Context - U.S. Bancorp operates within the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, where another company, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS), also experienced a price increase of 10.4% to close at $93.27, although it has seen a return of -13.4% over the past month [4] - Northern Trust's consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has decreased by 1.4% to $1.85, which is still an 8.8% increase compared to the previous year [5]