Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold and oil markets, highlighting the impact of economic data and geopolitical events on prices [2][6]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The market reacted to the CPI data with a short-term drop in the U.S. dollar and a spike in gold prices, indicating a temporary optimistic sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging oscillation between $3450 and $3250, with recent price action indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend [3]. - After testing support levels around $3270/3280, gold prices rebounded but faced resistance at $3410, leading to a significant drop below key support levels [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on resistance levels between $3358 and $3370, while support levels are identified around $3335 to $3310 [5]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market saw a slight increase in prices due to the extension of tariff pauses between the U.S. and major Asian countries, alleviating trade concerns [6]. - Brent crude oil futures were reported at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $63.89 per barrel, indicating a stable market environment [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a downward trend, with a potential trading range identified between $62.80 and $64.60 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, driven by better-than-expected domestic automobile production and sales data and year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, supported by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, despite the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, as China and the United States have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons (1.89%) from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The entry rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the exit rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The entry rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the exit rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decline of 9.39 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.76 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight week - on - week decline of 1.57%, a slight month - on - month decline of 4.85%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant week - on - week decline of 84,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decline of 141,800 tons, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.93% [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.98 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.69 percentage points. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 18 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decline of 25 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 235,700 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 26,300 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 453,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 235,000 barrels [12]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.9%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [12]. - As of August 5, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 141,829 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 14,194 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,341 contracts (a decline of 22.57%) compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 5, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 230,414 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 19,559 contracts and a significant increase of 10,338 contracts (an increase of 4.70%) compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | - 1,110 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +2 yuan/ton | 2,496 yuan/ton | +11 yuan/ton | - 84 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 460.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 494.2 yuan/barrel | +4.8 yuan/barrel | - 33.6 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes [14][27][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. Macroscopically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced the suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. On the supply side, the production restrictions in Tangshan affected market sentiment, and the sharp rise in furnace materials supported steel prices from the cost side. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards, and the red bars were expanding. Operationally, it is recommended to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,381,560 lots, up 6,551 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -48,510 lots, down 4,583 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 6 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 79,286 tons, up 8,925 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 46 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 137.1227 million tons, up 0.5437 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 443,600 tons, down 19,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.193 million tons, down 74,800 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1536 million tons, up 43,400 tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.77%, up 0.29 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.1489 million tons, down 79,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 80.44%, down 2.02 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 778,800 tons, down 14,200 tons [2]. - 33 - city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.7875 million tons, up 101,000 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.384 million tons, up 0.174 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.591 million vehicles, down 203,100 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.593 million vehicles, down 311,500 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioners: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerators: 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units [2]. - Household washing machines: 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities. Eligible loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy, which is issued by the handling banks to business entities in 8 consumption - related service industries such as catering, accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural entertainment, tourism, and sports [2]. - The National Mine Safety Administration will hold a special press conference on the new version of the Coal Mine Safety Regulations at 10:00 am on August 13 to introduce the background, principles, significance, and main revised contents of the regulations and respond to media concerns [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Affected by the rise in the grain market and the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton, US cotton rose slightly. Waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, with a firm basis. On the demand side, the off - season consumption characteristics of the textile industry are evident. Mainland textile enterprises have no profit, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. Enterprises' procurement of raw materials is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of new crops, China's total cotton planting area increased in 2025. High temperatures in Xinjiang in the next few days require attention to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, although the current tight supply supports cotton prices, weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas limit the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,015 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 30,886 hands, a decrease of 6,095 hands; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 175 hands, a decrease of 272 hands. - The main contract position of cotton was 412,957 hands, an increase of 166,751 hands; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 18,627 hands, an increase of 745 hands. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 8,087 sheets, a decrease of 85 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 74 sheets, a decrease of 1 sheet [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,226 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 24,030 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,443 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 941 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan. - The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 11.24%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.79%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. - As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 53%, down from 55% the previous week and up from 46% in the same period last year. - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.3%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.79%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 1.52% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks indicates a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on certain goods starting from August 12, 2025, which has positively impacted market sentiment and led to significant gains in Asian markets [7][8]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 2%, surpassing the historical closing record set in July 2024, reaching above 42,600 points [4][6]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea also saw a notable increase, rising nearly 1%, with a total gain of over 40% since its low on April 9 [6][12]. - Australian markets reached historical highs, reflecting overall positive market sentiment in response to the tariff news [6]. Tariff Agreement Details - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff on certain goods [7]. - China will similarly suspend the 24% tariff on US goods for 90 days and maintain a 10% tariff, while also taking necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the US [7]. Impact on Commodities - International oil prices reacted positively, showing significant increases, while natural gas and copper also experienced notable gains [11]. - Gold prices opened lower but showed slight recovery after a significant drop the previous day [11]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's reaction to the tariff news may depend on prior expectations; if expectations were already high, the actual news might lead to a market pullback [10]. - Despite previous uncertainties, the A-share market has shown resilience, with financing balances increasing, indicating a degree of confidence among investors [12]. - Analysts suggest that the recent market pullback presents a good opportunity for investment, especially with potential improvements in external conditions and expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts indicate that the impact of a potential further suspension of tariffs on the US dollar remains uncertain, with a 90-day tariff suspension ending on July 9 [1] Group 1 - A further suspension of tariffs may be interpreted as a reluctance to implement tariffs, potentially boosting risk-sensitive currencies [1] - If high tariffs are avoided, the US dollar could receive some initial support [1] - However, a reduction in tariffs might lead the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that if tariffs had not boosted inflation expectations, he would have already cut interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister anticipates that trade negotiations with the United States will be extended following a 90-day suspension of tariffs [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that a pleasant conversation took place with Trump, emphasizing the need for the EU to reach a favorable agreement before July 9, when Trump's "tariff suspension" expires, indicating that Europe is prepared to advance negotiations swiftly and decisively [1] Group 1 - The EU is under pressure to finalize a deal before the deadline set by Trump's tariff suspension [1] - Ursula von der Leyen expressed readiness for rapid and decisive negotiation efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, expressed the intention to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [1] Group 1 - The U.S. aims to negotiate trade agreements with key partners to address tariff issues [1] - The focus is on achieving these agreements prior to the summer deadline for tariff suspensions [1]