证券研究报告：基础化工 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-06-10 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 扬农化工(600486) 业绩平稳增长，农化景气度回升 | [项目table_FinchinaSimple] \年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 104 | 119 | 135 | 145 | | 增长率(%) | -9.09 | 13.79 | 13.85 | 7.53 | | EBITDA（亿元） | 21.03 | 24.75 | 27.74 | 30.13 | | 归属母公司净利润（亿元） | 12.02 | 13.28 | 15.76 | 17.74 | | 增长率(%) | -23.19 | 10.48 | 18.69 | 12.51 | | EPS(元/股) | 2.96 | 3.27 | 3.88 | 4.36 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 20.30 | 18.38 | 15.48 | 13.76 | | 市净率（P/B） | 2.32 | 2.11 | 1.91 ...

| 最新收盘价（元） | 60.02 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.07 / 4.03 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）244 / 242 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 62.00 / 46.81 | | 资产负债率(%) | 40.3% | | 市盈率 | 20.15 | | 第一大股东 | 先正达集团股份有限公 | | 司 | | 研究所 分析师:张泽亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100003 Email:zhangzeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:许灿杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040002 Email:xucanjie@cnpsec.com 扬农化工(600486) 业绩平稳增长，农化景气度回升 | [项目table_FinchinaSimple] \年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 104 | 119 | 135 | 145 | | 增长率(%) | -9.09 | 13.79 | 13.85 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, focusing on five provinces and three central enterprises, which may impact the chemical industry [21][22] - The pesticide industry is undergoing capacity optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with many non-compliant small enterprises exiting the market [24] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has affected the supply of chlorantraniliprole, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] - The organic pigment industry is consolidating, with a positive outlook for high-performance organic pigments due to increasing domestic production capabilities and environmental regulations [30][33] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The basic chemical industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Industry Dynamics - The central ecological environment protection inspections are expected to tighten regulations on the chemical industry, impacting production and compliance [21][22] - The pesticide sector is seeing a shift towards greener production methods, with a focus on reducing pesticide usage and promoting bio-pesticides [22][24] Pesticide Industry - The pesticide industry is experiencing a structural optimization, with a significant reduction in high-toxicity products and an increase in the market share of low-risk alternatives [24] - The recent explosion at Youdao Chemical has disrupted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is the leading insecticide globally, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] Organic Pigment Industry - The organic pigment sector is witnessing consolidation, with a focus on high-performance products that meet stricter environmental standards [30][33] - Domestic companies are increasingly capable of producing high-performance organic pigments, which are expected to replace traditional pigments in the market [30][33]

编号：2025-02 | 答：随着草铵膦原药价格逐步走低，市场需求量持续增长， | | --- | | 公司草铵膦销量逐步增长。但目前行业竞争依旧激烈，价格仍 | | 处于历史低位，公司将确保安全生产，持续稳固和提升现有优 | | 势，始终保持产品的市场竞争力。 | | 3、精草铵膦的市场前景如何？ | | 答：公司非常看好精草铵膦的市场空间，未来随着越来越 | | 多企业产品登记的取得、市场推广开展、生产技术的改进，市 | | 场需求的规模将持续增长。公司作为目前国内最大规模的精草 | | 铵膦原药生产企业，将持续加快推进实施精草铵膦在海外多个 | | 国家的登记和市场布局工作，积极做好市场铺垫。 | | 4、美国加征关税的影响？ | | 答：2024 年公司国际销售收入占比 47%，产品出口美国、 | | 加拿大、巴西、阿根廷、澳大利亚、印度等三十几个国家及地 | | 区，其中对美国出口占到了一定比例。经过公司仔细核实，在 | | 之前美国实施的加征"对等关税"政策中，公司主要原药产品 | | 在豁免清单中。而近期中美两国的关税政策也有所调整，因此， | | 短时间内对公司影响不大。公司仍持续密切关注输美 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Pesticide Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pesticide industry, particularly the implications of Bayer's legal issues related to glyphosate and the overall market dynamics affecting various pesticide products. Core Insights and Arguments - **Bayer's Glyphosate Lawsuit**: Bayer faces significant financial pressure from glyphosate lawsuits, potentially leading to its exit from the U.S. herbicide market. Chinese companies, as major glyphosate producers, need to monitor market changes and risks closely [1][3] - **Supply Tightness in Acetochlor**: Environmental restrictions and safety incidents have led to tight supply and significant price increases for acetochlor, benefiting major producers like Shandong Xianda and Hebei Lansheng, while smaller firms are also ramping up production to fill market gaps [1][4] - **Price Volatility in Fungicides**: The fungicide market has seen price fluctuations due to environmental shutdowns. For instance, the price of Mancozeb peaked at 38,000 yuan due to supply-demand imbalances, while other fungicides like Chlorothalonil are benefiting from global restocking demands [1][5] - **Strong Performance of Avermectin and Methomyl**: Avermectin and Methomyl have shown robust price stability, with Avermectin exceeding 510,000 yuan per ton, attributed to effective capacity utilization and production scheduling by companies [1][7] - **Bayer's Potential Bankruptcy Strategy**: Bayer may consider bankruptcy restructuring as a strategy to compel U.S. government intervention in glyphosate lawsuits. A shutdown of Bayer's glyphosate production could impact its 370,000-ton capacity and transgenic seed business [1][8] - **Market Consolidation Trends**: The domestic herbicide market is experiencing consolidation trends, with market shrinkage due to drought and reduced pest issues, prompting companies to seek development opportunities [1][35] Additional Important Insights - **Global Pesticide Demand Recovery**: The pesticide industry is witnessing a recovery in demand, driven by last year's low price levels and increased environmental regulations leading to production halts. The global pesticide destocking phase has ended, entering a restocking phase [2] - **Impact of Monsanto's Glyphosate Issues**: The glyphosate issues faced by Monsanto (now part of Bayer) have led to significant litigation costs, estimated at around $10 billion, affecting its stock and business operations. The domestic market is currently at a low price level, around 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [3] - **Acetochlor's Market Dynamics**: Acetochlor prices surged from 60,000 yuan to over 100,000 yuan due to supply disruptions caused by environmental issues and safety incidents [4] - **Fungicide Market Demand**: The demand for fungicides is expected to grow, with Brazil's procurement of Chlorothalonil increasing to 45,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a recovery from previous destocking phases [5][25] - **Pesticide Market Growth Projections**: The pesticide market is projected to see a demand increase of 10% to 20% in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a positive growth outlook [26] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the pesticide industry, particularly in relation to Bayer's challenges and market dynamics.

关于 2024 年度业绩说明会召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 证券代码：603086 证券简称：先达股份 公告编号：2025-033 山东先达农化股份有限公司 山东先达农化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 16 日（星期五） 以网络文字互动方式召开公司 2024 年度业绩说明会。关于本次业绩说明会的召开事项， 公司已于 2025 年 5 月 9 日在《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券时报》《证券日报》 及上海证券交易所网站上披露了《关于召开 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告》（公告编号： 一、本次说明会召开情况 门亮先生、董事会秘书兼财务总监江广同先生出席了本次说明会，并对投资者提出的问 题进行了回答。 二、投资者提出的主要问题及公司回复情况 公司就投资者在本次业绩说明会提出的普遍关心的问题给予了回答，主要问答情况 如下： 问题1：请问领导，对于海外市场会是公司创制药销售的一个重要方向吗？ 问题3：请问公司领导，中国水稻田有4亿多亩，适合使用吡唑喹草酯的水稻田面积 大 ...

Summary of the Agricultural Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to experience a weak recovery in demand in 2025 after a downturn in 2023-2024, but oversupply in certain products will continue to face capacity reduction pressures, while some non-oversupplied products may see price increases. Currently, most product prices are at the bottom range, requiring catalytic factors for upward movement [1][6] - The export share of the agricultural chemical industry is approximately 60% to 80%, primarily targeting multinational companies and traders. During the pandemic, high safety stock levels led to increased domestic raw material orders, boosting demand and prices. However, since early 2023, prices have begun to decline as inventory levels decreased and new capacities came online [2] Market Dynamics - Attendance at the agricultural chemical exhibition dropped to a low point in 2024, reflecting market expectations of low pesticide prices. However, attendance rebounded in March 2025, indicating increased market interest and potential for product reversals, although the overall outlook remains one of weak recovery [3][5] - Key products such as Bacillus thuringiensis, Abamectin, and Methomyl have seen price increases due to demand from South American soybean rust and supply tightness from leading companies. Companies like Limin Co. have reported significant performance benefits from these price increases [1][4] Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Abamectin prices have risen approximately 30% from the bottom, with an expected further increase of 30%. Methomyl is experiencing similar trends, driven by increased demand for Chlorantraniliprole and reduced intermediate supply, with future price increases anticipated due to capacity constraints [10] - Limin Co. reported a first-quarter performance of approximately 110 million yuan, with expectations of reaching 800 million yuan in the future due to price increases in key products [11] Company Performance Highlights - Lier Chemical's first-quarter growth was primarily driven by the production of Pyraflufen-ethyl and Chlorantraniliprole, despite overall profitability challenges in the industry [4][15] - Yangnong Chemical's first-quarter performance was strong, with significant contributions from the Huludao project, projecting a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan for the year [16] - Xinda Co. is focusing on innovative drugs, with products like Sunflower Ketone contributing to revenue growth, and further potential from upcoming product registrations [13] Future Outlook - The overall judgment for the agricultural chemical industry is a weak recovery trend, with certain products expected to reverse. The market is closely monitoring price movements and potential catalysts for growth [5][6] - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Guangxin Co. are expected to see performance improvements, with a focus on innovation and strategic collaborations [12][17] Additional Insights - The agricultural chemical industry is characterized by a competitive landscape with potential for further price increases in products like Abamectin and Methomyl due to supply constraints and rising demand [10][18] - The innovative drug sector within the agricultural chemical industry is gaining traction, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Xinda Co. making significant advancements [8][12]

公 司 研 究 扬农化工（600486.SH）：一季度业 绩增长，项目建设有序推进 2025 年 4 月 30 日 强烈推荐/维持 扬农化工 公司报告 扬农化工发布 2025 年 1 季报：公司 1 季度实现营业收入 32.41 亿元， YoY+2.04%，归母净利润 4.35 亿元，YoY+1.35%。 农药产品销量增长，但价格小幅下滑，带动公司整体实现增长。分板块看，① 原药：1 季度公司原药产品价格同比下滑 8.77%，销量同比增长 14.82%，带 动营收同比增长 4.75%至 18.06 亿元；②制剂：1 季度公司制剂产品价格同比 下滑 1.63%，销量同比增长 2.77%，带动产品营收同比增长 1.10%至 8.71 亿 元。从利润端看，公司综合毛利率同比小幅增长 0.3 个百分点至 24.64%，带 动净利润增长。 行业尚处周期底部，但是绿色化、国际化与集中度提升也孕育着新机遇。首先， 国家高度重视粮食安全，持续推出农业利好政策以及有利于农药行业创新、绿 色、高质量发展的法律法规。其次，虽然 2024 年全球粮食价格处于周期底部， 但粮食需求中长期需求明确，广大发展中地区居民饮食结构仍有较大改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 435 million yuan, up 1.35% year-on-year and up 146.77% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 144.46% [1] Product Performance - The average selling price of raw materials was 63,000 yuan/ton, down 8.8% year-on-year, with sales volume of 28,700 tons, up 14.8% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of formulations was 56,600 yuan/ton, down 1.6% year-on-year, with sales volume of 15,400 tons, up 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Key products such as bifenthrin and chlorpyrifos experienced price changes, with market prices for various products showing mixed trends [1] Industry Outlook - The prices of pesticide raw materials are expected to stabilize at low levels, with global demand for crop protection products anticipated to recover [2] - As of April 20, 2025, the raw material price index reported by Zhongnong Lihua was 72.23 points, down 5.8% year-on-year but up 0.62% month-on-month [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in global crop protection market demand, supported by its leading position in the pesticide industry [2] Project Development - The Youchuang project is progressing steadily, with the first phase of the project in Liaoning already completed and producing qualified products [3] - The project is included in China Sinochem's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to generate annual revenue of 1.5 billion yuan and net profit of 100 million yuan by 2026, with further growth projected by 2030 [3] - The advancement of the Youchuang project is expected to resolve bottlenecks faced by the subsidiary Shenyang Kexin and optimize the company's production layout [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.3 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.6% to 450 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68.0% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.1 yuan per 10 shares, with total cash dividends and share buybacks for 2024 amounting to 290 million yuan, which is 64.2% of the net profit for the year [1] Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic pesticide formulation industry, with R&D teams and centers located in Jinan and Weifang, Shandong, and manufacturing bases in multiple locations including Argentina and Spain [2] - The company operates over 110 subsidiaries globally and conducts business in more than 100 countries, actively enhancing its global marketing network [2] Market Dynamics - The pesticide market continues to show steady growth despite a decline in the pesticide price index, with a 30.0% increase in export quantity and an 11.7% increase in export value for 2024 [2] - The gross margin for the company in 2024 was 19.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.0%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant increase in sales expenses by 51.1% due to rising overseas employee salaries and other costs, while financial expenses surged by 1930.4% primarily due to substantial foreign exchange losses amounting to 550 million yuan in 2024 [2] Industry Outlook - The global pesticide industry has entered a mature phase but still experiences significant cyclical fluctuations, with a 9.2% year-on-year growth in global pesticide sales in 2022 [3] - The market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top five global pesticide companies holding a 75% market share [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a five-year strategic plan focusing on increasing the share of TOC business, expanding operations in North America and the EU, enhancing the insecticide and fungicide segments, and strengthening the biopesticide sector [4] - The company aims for rapid growth in the pesticide formulation market through a "fast market entry platform" and has registered over 7,700 products globally [3][4] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]