优创项目稳步推进，南北布局巩固公司龙头地位。辽宁优创一期第一阶段项目快速推进产能爬坡，已调 试产品全部达设计产能。优创项目已被列入中国中化"十四五"规划重点建设项目，1H25 辽宁优创实现 营收5.52 亿元，预计到2026 年实现年营业收入15 亿元，净利润1 亿元，预计到2030 年实现年营业收入 40 亿元，净利润5 亿元。优创项目的推进有助于解决子公司沈阳科创目前面临的瓶颈问题，优化公司的 生产布局，形成南北均衡布局，打开远期成长空间，巩固公司龙头地位。 投资建议：展望后市，海外市场库存低位，新周期备货启动将推动部分产品需求恢复，同时政策引导行 业集中度提升，产能出清后中期价格将有上升空间，农药产品毛利率将逐步恢复上升，公司有望受益于 农药行业底部修复带来的需求增量。同时，公司优创项目有望带来新一轮成长，预计公司25-27年归母 净利润分别为13.4、15.2、17.4 亿元，同比增速为+11.62%、+13.65%、+13.86%，对应PE 分别为21、 19、16 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 事件：8 月21 日晚，公司发布2025 年半年度报告。1H25 公司实现营业总收入62.34 亿元，同比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨扬农化工（600486.SH） [Table_Title] 行业周期底部，公司逆势增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 半年报，2025H1 实现收入 62.3 亿元，同比变动+9.4%，归属净利润 8.1 亿元， 同比变动+5.6%，归属扣非净利润 8.0 亿元，同比变动+7.9%。2025Q2 实现收入 29.9 亿元， 同比变动+18.6%，环比变动-7.6%，归属净利润 3.7 亿元，同比变动+11.1%，环比变动-14.7%， 归属扣非净利润 3.7 亿元，同比变动+17.5%，环比变动-15.0%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派 发现金红利人民币 2.40 元（含税）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490521030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 扬农化工（600486.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 行业周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the agricultural chemical industry is undergoing a "Three-Year Action Plan" aimed at improving market order and curbing excessive competition, which is expected to enhance profitability and industry conditions by 2027 [4][5] - The global agricultural chemical market has entered a destocking phase since Q4 2022, with domestic production capacity being released, leading to a recovery in prices for certain agricultural chemicals [5] - The report identifies several key companies that are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery, including Yangnong Chemical, Limin Co., and Xingfa Group, among others [5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The agricultural chemical market has seen a decline in prices since 2021 due to supply-demand mismatches, but recent data indicates a potential rebound in prices for key products like glyphosate and chlorpyrifos [5][53] - Exports of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides from China have shown significant year-on-year increases of 14%, 32%, and 24% respectively in the first half of 2025 [11][16] Regulatory Developments - The "Three-Year Action Plan" initiated by the China Pesticide Industry Association aims to address issues such as illegal production and excessive competition, with specific measures to enhance product quality and compliance [4][56] Company Performance - The report provides a forecast for various companies, indicating that Yangnong Chemical is expected to see a profit growth of 17.3% in 2025, while Limin Co. is projected to have a significant profit increase of 460.5% [56][58] - The report also lists companies with strong market positions and potential for growth, including Jiangshan Co. and Helilong [5][56]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a growth-oriented investment style, suggesting a focus on companies with marginal changes and new growth curves [2][3]. Core Views - The chemical market experienced an upward trend this week, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.74% [2][11]. - Key events impacting the chemical industry include the resolution of the ethane export issue between the US and China, the lifting of force majeure on BASF's animal nutrition product, and the successful production of new materials in China [2][3][4]. - The report highlights the high valuation levels in the chemical sector, with a historical PB percentile of 20% and a PE percentile of 71% [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures settled at an average price of $68.19 per barrel, down 0.25% week-on-week, while WTI futures increased by 0.9% to $66.3 per barrel [11]. - The basic chemical sector underperformed the index, with a decline of 0.74%, while the petrochemical sector fell by 1.03% [11]. Major Chemical Products Price Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in market prices and demand dynamics [12][29]. Key Events - The US Department of Commerce's notification ended the ethane export turmoil, benefiting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [3]. - BASF's lifting of force majeure on Lutavit® A 1000 NXT is a significant development for the animal nutrition business [4]. - The successful production of new materials, such as AkzoNobel's 5000 tons of COC and Shanghai Jieda's 120,000 tons/year hexamethylenediamine, marks a positive trend in domestic new materials [2][3]. - SABIC's permanent shutdown of its olefins cracker in the UK, with an annual capacity of 865,000 tons of ethylene and 415,000 tons of propylene, indicates a continued exit of overseas capacity [4]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes a growth-oriented investment approach, focusing on companies showing marginal changes and potential new growth trajectories [2][25]. - The chemical sector is currently experiencing high valuation levels, with a historical PB percentile of 20% and a PE percentile of 71% [2][12].

Price Trends in Jining City - In June, the prices of major commodities in Jining City showed mixed trends, with slight fluctuations in grain and oil prices, a decline in meat and egg prices, a rebound in vegetable prices, and a stable yet declining trend in agricultural production material prices [1][2][3] Grain and Oil Prices - The average retail prices for wheat and corn were 1.18 yuan/kg and 1.17 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 3.54% month-on-month, while prices for japonica rice and premium flour decreased by 1.54% and 5.56% respectively [1] - The average retail prices for peanut oil and soybean oil were 159.47 yuan/barrel and 63.76 yuan/barrel, with soybean oil prices rising by 2.44% [1] Meat and Egg Prices - The average retail prices for pork (five-flavored and lean) were 12.57 yuan/kg and 14.07 yuan/kg, showing declines of 2.33% and 1.75% respectively [1] - The average retail prices for beef and lamb were 30.18 yuan/kg and 35.03 yuan/kg, with beef prices increasing slightly by 0.10% and lamb prices decreasing by 0.34% [1] - Chicken and egg prices averaged 8.05 yuan/kg and 3.20 yuan/kg, with declines of 0.79% and 8.57% respectively [1][2] Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices in Jining City rebounded in June, with a composite average price of 2.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.14% [2] - Among the monitored 17 types of vegetables, 10 saw price increases while 7 experienced declines, with garlic sprouts and celery showing significant increases of 34.53% and 29.88% respectively [2] Agricultural Production Material Prices - The prices of agricultural production materials showed a stable yet declining trend in June [3] - The average retail prices for fertilizers such as urea, ammonium bicarbonate, compound fertilizers, and potassium chloride were 2.00 yuan/kg, 1.24 yuan/kg, 3.13 yuan/kg, and 3.31 yuan/kg, with decreases of 2.10%, 0.80%, 0.60%, and 0.54% respectively [3] - The price of diammonium phosphate increased slightly by 0.22% to 4.18 yuan/kg [3] - Prices for agricultural films and pesticides remained stable, with average prices for greenhouse and ground films at 13.25 yuan/kg and 12.33 yuan/kg respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guangkang Biochemical's stock price has doubled within nine trading days, reaching a historical high since its listing on June 27, 2023, despite declining profits and shareholder sell-offs [4][5][9]. Group 1: Company Performance - Guangkang Biochemical's stock price increased from 26.53 yuan on May 26 to a peak of 56.70 yuan, marking a significant rise [4]. - The company's net profit for the first quarter of 2023 was 23.05 million yuan, down 11.45% year-on-year, and a sharp decline from over 96 million yuan in 2022 [5]. - The company is a major producer of agricultural chemicals in Guangdong, specializing in pesticides and intermediates [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company benefited from the Chinese government's anti-dumping measures against imported chlorpyrifos from India, which accounted for 70% to 71% of domestic demand from 2021 to 2023 [5]. - A chemical explosion at a competitor's facility catalyzed a surge in Guangkang Biochemical's stock price due to anticipated supply shortages of key raw materials [6][7]. - The company announced a production capacity of 2,500 tons for a key intermediate, K-amine, which has received environmental and safety approvals [8]. Group 3: Shareholder Actions - Following the stock price surge, major shareholders announced plans to reduce their holdings, amounting to a 6% reduction in total shares [10]. - After the announcement of the sell-off, the stock price dropped by 13.16% on June 4 but continued to rise afterward, indicating mixed market sentiment [11]. - The situation reflects speculative trading behavior in the A-share market, where stock price movements often overshadow fundamental performance [12].

Group 1 - Guangkang Biochemical's stock price reached a historical high due to favorable news since May, prompting major shareholders to reduce their holdings [2] - On June 3, Guangkang Biochemical announced a reduction of 2.22 million shares, accounting for 6% of the total share capital, leading to a stock price drop of 13.16% on June 4 [2][3] - Following the initial drop, the stock rebounded with a 15.52% increase on June 5 and continued to rise, exceeding a 10% increase by June 6 [2] Group 2 - The stock price surge is attributed to two main events: the anti-dumping investigation on imported chlorpyrifos from India and the explosion at Youdao Chemical in Shandong [3][4] - The Ministry of Commerce's final ruling on May 6 imposed anti-dumping duties of 48.4% to 166.2% on Indian companies, which is expected to boost domestic chlorpyrifos prices [3] - Guangkang Biochemical, as a producer of chlorpyrifos intermediates, is positioned to benefit directly from these developments, with stock price increases of 7.67% on May 7 and 17.16% on May 8 [3] Group 3 - The explosion at Youdao Chemical, which has a significant production capacity of chlorpyrifos, raised concerns about potential supply shortages of key raw materials, further driving up Guangkang Biochemical's stock price by over 68% from May 27 to June 3 [4] - Guangkang Biochemical's Kamine production capacity is 2,500 tons, with environmental and safety approvals in progress [4] - The overall pesticide market has been experiencing a downturn since 2023, with significant price declines affecting profitability [6][7] Group 4 - In 2024, Guangkang Biochemical reported a revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.15%, while net profit grew by 15.33% to 34.68 million yuan [6] - The company's main products include fungicides, insecticides, and herbicides, with a notable decline in prices observed in the market [6] - The pesticide market is expected to remain weak in 2025, with excess supply and slow inventory digestion posing challenges [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, with a recommendation to adopt a defensive investment strategy due to ongoing market uncertainties [2][25]. Core Insights - The chemical market has seen an increase due to unexpected tariff reductions, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 1.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.7% [2][10]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US and China canceling a total of 91% of additional tariffs, which is expected to benefit export chains, particularly in textiles and electronics [2][3]. - Oil prices are projected to stabilize within a range, influenced by geopolitical factors and a potential recovery in demand [2][10]. - The AI sector is showing substantial growth, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba reporting significant contributions from AI to their revenues [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Brent crude oil futures average price was $65.52 per barrel, up 5.6% from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged $62.58 per barrel, an increase of 5.98% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector lagged behind [10][11]. - The top three performing sub-industries were viscose (up 8.72%), polyester (up 8.63%), and paint and ink (up 6.3%) [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is recovering with increased production rates, while raw material prices are rising [25]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is showing signs of improvement due to reduced supply and increased inquiries [26]. - The dye market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite weak demand from downstream textile industries [27]. Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics across different segments [24][29]. - For example, the price of DMC increased to 3733 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.36% rise from the previous week [27]. Industry Events - Significant developments include the US and China reaching a consensus on tariff reductions, which is expected to positively impact trade and market sentiment [3][10]. - The report notes that US companies are entering a new 90-day inventory accumulation period, which may lead to increased shipping demand and costs [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there are positive signals from tariff reductions and market recovery, caution is advised due to potential demand fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [9] Core Views - The basic chemical index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.07 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 2.07% compared to the CSI 300's 2.00% [2][14] - Key products with significant price increases include liquid chlorine (7.45%), international sulfur (5.60%), and international toluene (3.22%) [3][22] - The report highlights the upward trend in crude oil prices, with Brent crude closing at $63.88 per barrel and WTI at $61.05 per barrel, marking weekly increases of 3.95% and 4.47% respectively [4] Market Trends - The basic chemical sector saw notable weekly gains in sub-industries such as viscose (6.05%), adhesives and tapes (5.95%), and other rubber products (5.50%) [2][15] - The report indicates a positive macroeconomic sentiment following the US-China Geneva trade talks, which may support oil prices in the short term [4] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were liquid chlorine (7.45%), international sulfur (5.60%), international toluene (3.22%), international DAP (3.03%), and TDI (2.83%) [3][22] - Conversely, the products with the largest weekly price declines included maleic anhydride (-9.07%), cyclohexanone (-7.54%), and coal tar (-7.35%) [3][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. recommended 2. Chemical fibers, with attention to Huafeng Chemical and Xin Fengming 3. Quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng 4. Tire sector, recommending Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire 5. Agricultural chemicals, with a focus on Yara International and Salt Lake Potash 6. Growth stocks like Bluestar Technology and Shengquan Group [6][44]

Group 1 - India proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff arrangement for specific goods, including steel, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, during trade negotiations with the US, contingent on reciprocity and limited to a certain quantity of imports [1] - The US has concerns regarding India's quality control measures, viewing them as non-tariff trade barriers, while a 10% baseline tariff remains in effect despite the suspension of a 26% "reciprocal tariff" [1] - India's exports of pharmaceuticals to the US have exceeded $10.5 billion, and engineering products reached $19.1 billion, yet the US maintains a trade deficit of $45.7 billion with India [1] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that India could be the fastest country to reach a trade agreement with the US, although skepticism remains regarding the actual progress of negotiations [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Indian imports of chlorpyrifos, concluding that dumping occurred and caused substantial harm to the domestic industry [3] Group 3 - India has significantly increased its chlorpyrifos exports to China, with a 75.79% rise in volume from 2019 to 2023, while the price per ton dropped by 42.07%, leading to a decline in market share for Chinese producers [5] - The market share of Indian chlorpyrifos in China rose from 49% to 71.47% over the same period, causing financial distress for Chinese manufacturers [5] Group 4 - India has shown a tendency to balance its relationships, often leading to conflicts within BRICS, as evidenced by its absence from a recent BRICS foreign ministers' meeting [7] - The announcement of anti-dumping measures by China against India serves as a warning to protect its own interests amid these trade dynamics [7]