本周，A股2024年年报及2025年一季报披露进入密集期，叠加临近"五一"假期，市场观望情绪较浓，成 交额减少。 在缩量状态下，市场机会更加聚焦。一边是紧盯高股息资产，银行板块上涨， 工商银行、建设银行再 创历史新高 ，"三桶油"、三大运营商等个股都上涨；另一边，市场积极挖掘新热点、新机会， 今天， 影石Insta360全景相机概念火了 ，弘景光电迎来"20CM"涨停，瀛通通讯涨停，联创电子、华金资本、 商络电子、艾为电子等个股都有不同程度上涨。 PEEK材料板块持续上涨 ，板块最近出现新的催化因 素。 值得注意的是，最近"净利润断层"+股价处于低位这个策略组合，频频催化个股行情，比如今天的珀莱 雅（603605）、阳光电源、格力电器等个股均上涨。 截至今天收盘，上证指数下跌0.2%，深证成指下跌0.62%，创业板指下跌0.65%。沪深北三市成交额为 10564亿元，较上周五减少572亿元。 上周五，珀莱雅跳空高开，股价涨停，今天再度涨停，迎来两连板。 珀莱雅2025年一季报显示，报告 期内，公司实现营业总收入23.59亿元，同比增长8.13%；实现归母净利润3.9亿元，同比增长28.87%。 格力电器、阳光 ...

Group 1 - The central economic meeting has a "preview" effect on the main sectors for the upcoming year, with most sectors showing excess performance within 20 trading days after the meeting [2][36] - The main sectors for the year need to meet both the "pre-selection" effect of the meeting and industrial logic, with communication, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles showing significant gains [2][36] - The report suggests that the AI sector and new consumption will be the main themes for the upcoming year, with a potential early performance in Q1 due to the DeepSeek catalyst [2][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that when the economic cycle is in the Plinger phase 2-4, stocks generally perform well, with a focus on the sustainability of M1 recovery as a key indicator [3][41] - The social financing pulse has shown a rebound, with new government bonds increasing year-on-year, while new RMB loans have turned negative [3][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external shocks, such as the US economic recession risk, as the AH market may continue to be revalued globally [3][41] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the AI sector, particularly with the upcoming GTC conference and the expected launch of the GB300 series, which may significantly enhance computing performance [12] - The global data center investment is projected to reach $57 billion in 2024, driven by AI demand, with a notable increase in the share of intelligent computing centers [12] - The report suggests that the demand for computing power remains strong, with a significant reduction in vacancy rates in data centers [12] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong performance of the rare earth sector, with prices steadily rising and expectations for policy support to boost confidence [21] - The report identifies strategic opportunities in the rare earth sector, particularly for companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and leading companies in the magnetic materials field [21] - The report notes that the prices of light rare earth oxides and heavy rare earth oxides have increased, indicating a tightening supply situation [21] Group 5 - The report outlines the high demand for photovoltaic materials, with a focus on the carbon fiber sector, which is expected to see continued growth due to the expansion of the renewable energy sector [22] - The report highlights the importance of electronic materials, particularly in the context of domestic substitution trends in upstream raw materials [22] - The report suggests that the wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on the concentrated market for wind turbine blades [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].