Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are under supply pressure and weak demand, while others may have short - term bullish factors but also face long - term uncertainties. [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The price continued to decline and fluctuate. Coal prices were low, inland plant maintenance restarts increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Coastal olefins increased their load, but high import arrivals led to port inventory accumulation and weakening basis. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the impact of ship - age restrictions in Jiangsu Maritime needs attention. [2] Urea - The futures price remained weak. Agricultural demand was in a lull, market sentiment weakened, production enterprises' inventories increased, and spot prices declined. Although the device maintenance volume increased, the load was still high, and short - term support at the integer level should be monitored. [3] Polyolefins - The futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there were many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it was the demand off - season, and the support for spot prices was limited. For polypropylene, it entered the consumption off - season, and the market lacked clear signals. The supply pressure increased, and the supply - demand contradiction was expected to expand. [4] Styrene - The futures main contract fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. There was an expectation of supply increase, and the strong selling intention of producers suppressed downstream replenishment. The market sentiment was weak. [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillated and declined. Their开工 rates continued to rise, while the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the terminal weaving load was adjusted down. The market was under pressure. - Ethylene glycol prices declined, with new device production and restart of coal - chemical maintenance increasing, port inventories rising, and demand possibly weakening. - Short - fiber terminal orders weakened, and the price followed raw materials. The processing margin was still low. - Bottle chip orders might enter the end of the peak season, with potential inventory accumulation pressure and possible industry production cuts. [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices rose due to improved sentiment. However, supply pressure increased with less maintenance in June and new production expectations. Exports were expected to weaken, and there was inventory accumulation pressure. With the decline in calcium carbide prices, the cost support collapsed, and the futures price might oscillate at a low level. - Caustic soda futures prices continued to be weak. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali increased, and the start - up was at a high level. Although liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, there was still pressure, and the downstream demand was weak. [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices rose due to improved sentiment and supply reduction rumors in Shahe. Although there was an improvement in restocking sentiment and production - sales ratio, the inventory pressure was high, and the downstream situation was still weak. Attention should be paid to cost changes and supply changes in Shahe. - Soda ash prices rose with improved sentiment. There were few maintenance plans in June, and supply was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and there was a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry. In the long term, supply pressure remained, and a high - level short - selling strategy was recommended. [8]