Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not rated - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated - Caustic Soda: Not rated - PX: Not rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: Not rated - Bottle Chip: Not rated - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin and polyolefin futures contracts showed different trends. The olefin futures declined, while the polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, putting pressure on prices [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had their own characteristics. The pure benzene market was expected to improve in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. The styrene market had cost support but limited unilateral drive [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA had different price trends, and the polyester industry was expected to increase its load. Ethylene glycol was in short - term low - level oscillation, and short - fiber was recommended for long - term configuration [4]. - The methanol market was in a weak trend, and the urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment [5]. - The PVC market was weak, and the caustic soda market had short - term support but long - term supply pressure [6]. - The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the glass market was expected to be near the cost line [7]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures: The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. There were both start - up and shutdown plans for devices. The inventory pressure of producers was relatively controllable, and the downstream demand was general [2]. - Polyolefin futures: The main contracts of polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply of polyethylene decreased slightly, and the demand improvement was limited. The supply of polypropylene was expected to increase, and the demand was weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The pure benzene market was expected to improve seasonally in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3]. - Styrene: The styrene market had cost support, but the unilateral drive was limited. The domestic production was expected to increase [3]. Polyester - PX - PTA: The price of PX increased slightly, and the PX - PTA spread shrank. The polyester industry was expected to increase its load, and the PX supply - demand was expected to improve [4]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price was above 4400 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and it was in short - term low - level oscillation [4]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was recommended for long - term configuration and monthly spread positive arbitrage [4]. - Bottle chip: The bottle - chip processing spread oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the repair space [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The methanol market continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to reach a historical high in the third - quarter end [5]. - Urea: The urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment. The supply - demand was loose in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The PVC market was weak. The export competition pressure increased, the supply was high, and the demand was insufficient [6]. - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market had short - term support from replenishment demand but long - term supply pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price was under pressure [7]. - Glass: The glass market was expected to be near the cost line, and the short - term real - world trading was weak [7].

Group 1 - The TDI market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply tightness caused by accidents and maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities [1][2][4] - As of July 29, the average domestic TDI price in China reached 15,875 RMB per ton, up 350 RMB per ton (2.25%) from the previous working day, and over 30% since the beginning of the month [3] - The supply tightness is further exacerbated by a chlorine leak incident at Mitsui Chemicals' TDI facility, which is their only production base, reducing capacity to 50,000 tons per year [2][4] Group 2 - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production at its facilities, which may alleviate the current TDI supply tightness [5] - Shanghai Covestro has suspended pricing due to a surge in overseas orders, indicating a strong demand in the market [4] - The market is characterized by a mix of high selling prices and low purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, with many holding onto inventory [3]

【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货日内窄幅波动。现阶段市场无明显消息面指引,装置重启带来供应增加预期,下游维持刚需买盘为 主,供需面对价格走势支撑有限,企业或仍以稳盘促销为主。 聚烯烃期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,整体延续区间整理格局。聚乙烯方面,农膜行业需求继续跟进,但整体仍 竖持随用随拿,投机备货意向不高。其余下游行业,开工变动较少。聚乙烯年内供应增加明显,尽管目前需求 端缓慢改善,但对行情整体的支撑力度有限。聚丙烯新增产能冲击叠加检修装置减少,供应预计增加。下游目 前新单跟进不足，成品库存相对高位制约下游采购积极性。且目前高温天气逐步增加更是加重下游降负荷意 愿。供需面对价格难以形成支撑。 | 11/1 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月29日 | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | な女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | РХ | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]

【甲醇】 日内甲醇价格延续减仓震荡态势。煤炭价格低位震荡,内地装置检修重启增加,企业库存上升。沿海烯烃继续 提负,甲醇外采需求量增多，但进口到港量高，港口持续累库,基差延续走弱。供应回升预期下,甲醇市场预 期偏弱震荡,江苏海事船龄限制可能令华东港口货源趋紧,关注实质影响。 (尿素) 尿素期货价格维持偏弱走势。农需处于麦收空档期，随着夏季高氮肥生产的收尾,以及出口政策的明朗，市场 情绪转弱，生产企业持续累库，工厂让利，现货走低。装置检修量上升，负荷喀有下降，但依旧偏高，短期关 注整数关口支撑。 (聚烯烃) | Million | 国技斯员 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月06日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | 聚丙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 班科 | なな女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★★ ...