Oil Price and Inventory - Brent and WTI crude oil futures average prices were $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$0.7 and -$0.2[2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 579,000 barrels to 82.41 million barrels, while commercial crude oil inventory fell by 601,000 barrels to 42.068 million barrels[2] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 60,000 barrels per day to 13.38 million barrels per day[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume rose by 30,000 barrels per day to 17.21 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 96.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 42,000 barrels per day to 650,000 barrels per day, while exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day to 437,000 barrels per day, resulting in a net import decrease of 122,000 barrels per day[2] Refined Products - Average prices for U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1, respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory decreased by 272,000 barrels to 22.357 million barrels, while diesel inventory increased by 234,000 barrels to 11.603 million barrels[2] Market Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) for potential investment[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors, macroeconomic downturns, and changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]

Core Insights - Indonesia's upstream regulatory agency reported that the country's crude oil production for the first half of the year was 579,300 barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - The reported crude oil production figure indicates Indonesia's ongoing efforts to maintain its output levels in the face of global market fluctuations [1] - The production rate reflects the country's strategic positioning within the Southeast Asian oil market, highlighting its significance as a regional oil producer [1] - Monitoring of Indonesia's oil production is crucial for investors and stakeholders, as it can impact global oil supply dynamics and pricing [1]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 17, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets were oscillating at high levels. Policy-wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% comprehensive tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US oil drilling decreased by 1, while fracturing increased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened week-on-week. The supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits. In the peak refinery season, the month spreads of crude oil are expected to remain oscillating at high levels. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. The suspension of production increase by OPEC+ in the fourth quarter does not change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the change slope of demand after the peak season [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From July 10 - 16, 2025, WTI prices changed from $66.57 to $66.38 (a decrease of $0.14), BRENT from $68.64 to $68.52 (a decrease of $0.19), and DUBAI from $69.81 to $69.93 (an increase of $0.07) [3] - **Product Prices**: Domestic gasoline prices decreased by $30.00 from July 10 - 16, 2025. Japan's naphtha CFR price and related spreads also showed certain changes, and Singapore's fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 1.55 [3] 3.2 Daily News - **US Shale Oil**: As WTI prices hover around $65, US shale oil drillers are scaling back operations. The slowdown is considered temporary, but tariffs and uncertainties are suppressing drilling activities [3] - **India's Oil Strategy**: In the first half of 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by 1% to about 1.75 million barrels per day. However, the discount of Urals crude to Brent has narrowed to $1.70 - 2 per barrel. The EU is discussing the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, which may lower the price cap to $45 [4] - **Saudi Arabia's Production Reporting**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it meet the quota requirements. Its actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day, while the "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day [4] - **Iraq's Oil Production**: Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US Data**: In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.91% decrease); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels (a 0.07% decrease); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 6.379 million barrels per day; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease from the same period last year [4][5] - **China Data**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulation. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased week - on - week [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Algeria's crude oil production increased by 0.7 thousand barrels per day in June, reaching a total of 927 thousand barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, reaching a total of 9.356 million barrels per day [1]

Report Summary Core View - In the week ending July 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, continuing the upward trend from the previous period. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.9% to 94.7%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day but remained at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, reaching the lowest level since the week of May 9. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the production decline. Gasoline inventories declined from a high level, diesel inventories continued to decline against the seasonal trend, and the apparent demand for refined oil products increased. The seasonal accumulation of total crude oil and petroleum product inventories has not stopped, and the single - week data has limited indication [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes (Unit: million barrels)**: US commercial crude oil inventory change was +7.07 (previous value: +3.845); Cushing crude oil inventory change was +0.464 (previous value: -1.493); strategic petroleum inventory change was +0.238 (previous value: +0.239); gasoline inventory change was -2.658 (previous value: +4.188); diesel inventory change was -0.825 (previous value: -1.71); jet fuel inventory change was -0.909 (previous value: +0.631); fuel oil inventory change was -0.453 (previous value: -0.389); crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) was +6.411 (previous value: +9.361) [6]. - **Production and Demand (Unit: thousand barrels per day)**: US crude oil production was 13,385 (previous value: 13,433); refined oil apparent demand was 20,863 (previous value: 20,487); gasoline apparent demand was 9,159 (previous value: 8,640); diesel apparent demand was 3,668 (previous value: 4,043); crude oil imports were 6,013 (previous value: 6,919); crude oil exports were 2,757 (previous value: 2,305); refinery crude oil processing volume was 17,006 (previous value: 17,105); refinery utilization rate was 94.7% (previous value: 94.9%) [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not further escalated, and oil prices have given back their gains. Although the situation has not worsened, there may be more attacks on energy facilities in the future, and oil prices will remain highly volatile in the short term. The strategy is for oil prices to oscillate strongly in the medium - term with a short - position configuration [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Oil prices declined: The July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% drop; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.94% at 530 yuan per barrel [1]. - Iran's nuclear - related situation: Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the NPT, but Tehran still opposes developing weapons of mass destruction. Iran won't negotiate with the US until its response to Israeli attacks is completed [1]. - Israel's stance: Israel said its actions against Iran may take 2 - 3 weeks, depending on political leadership's decisions. If Iran accepts US demands to abandon its nuclear program, Israel is willing to stop its actions [1]. - Warning from Iraq: Iraq's foreign minister warned that intensified Middle - East tensions and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up to $300 per barrel, raising European inflation and complicating oil exports from countries like Iraq. Closing the Strait would reduce global oil supply by about 5 million barrels per day [1]. - Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz: The number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased slightly to 111 on the 15th, down from 116 on June 12, but major oil infrastructure has not been significantly disrupted [1]. - OPEC monthly report: OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day, and OPEC +'s average daily production was 41.23 million barrels, an 180,000 - barrel increase from April. It expects the global economy to perform well in the second half of 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - Israel has not launched further attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure after weekend attacks. It may focus on regime power centers, assassinations, and missile/nuclear targets. The easing situation has relieved the market, but more energy - facility attacks are possible, and short - term oil prices will be highly volatile [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and a medium - term short - position configuration is recommended [3].

Core Viewpoint - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 27.02 million barrels per day according to secondary data [1] Group 1 - OPEC's crude oil production in May showed a month-on-month increase [1] - The total production level reached 27.02 million barrels per day [1] - The increase in production may impact global oil supply dynamics [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices showed volatility, with a decline in closing prices on June 10, 2023. The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. Brent crude oil for August delivery decreased by $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, down 0.25% [1] - Optimism surrounding the China-US trade talks is providing support for oil prices, as indicated by Harry Tchilinguirian from Onyx Capital Group [1] - Saudi Aramco is expected to ship approximately 47 million barrels of crude oil to China in July, a decrease of 1 million barrels compared to June, which may signal an early indication of OPEC+ exiting production cuts [1] Group 2 - According to a survey by S&P Global, analysts estimate a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and refined product inventories are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels and 0.9 million barrels, respectively [2] - The US Energy Information Administration's monthly short-term energy outlook report indicates that US oil companies will reduce drilling activities due to low oil prices, leading to a decrease in drilling and completion numbers over the next 18 months [2] - The report projects that US average daily crude oil production will decline from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels per day in Q4 of this year, with an average slightly above 13.4 million barrels per day expected for the year [2]

Group 1 - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 200,000 barrels per day in May, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day [1]