Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual characteristics of the current dollar cycle, highlighting its resilience and divergence from historical patterns, suggesting that the dollar may have entered a downward cycle since 2025 due to structural changes in the U.S. economy and global dynamics [1][46]. Historical Review of Dollar Cycles - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the dollar has experienced three major appreciation cycles, with significant increases in the DXY index during each period [2][5]. - The current dollar appreciation cycle began in 2008, lasting 17 years and resulting in a 40% increase, marking it as the longest cycle since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution [3][5]. Current Characteristics of the Dollar Cycle - The dollar's peak values have shown a downward trend over the years, indicating a decreasing relative strength of the U.S. economy globally [6]. - The current cycle exhibits three unusual divergences: a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, a lack of impact from expanding fiscal and trade deficits, and a strong dollar despite rising inflation in the U.S. [7][10][12]. Threefold Analysis Framework - The dollar's exchange rate is fundamentally influenced by the relative performance of the U.S. economy compared to other major economies [15]. - Monetary policy from the Federal Reserve significantly impacts the dollar's strength, with tight monetary policies historically supporting dollar appreciation [20]. - Capital flows are closely linked to the dollar index, with geopolitical factors also playing a crucial role in influencing these flows [21]. Feedback Mechanisms - The dollar's appreciation has asymmetric effects on the global economy, increasing financing costs for other countries while benefiting the U.S. economy [21][22]. - Positive feedback mechanisms exist where dollar appreciation leads to worsening debt burdens for other economies, further driving capital flows into the U.S. [22]. Current Trends and Future Outlook - Since 2025, there are signs that the dollar may be entering a downward cycle due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy and declining risk appetite for dollar assets [34][38]. - The structural changes in the U.S. asset and liability landscape suggest a strong motivation for the U.S. to seek dollar depreciation to manage its growing net liabilities [35][36]. - Market sentiment is shifting, with a notable decrease in net long positions on the dollar, indicating a growing bearish outlook [38][40]. Conclusion - The current dollar cycle is characterized by unprecedented features, with the potential for a downward trend driven by both domestic and international factors, including the competitive landscape in technology and economic policies [45][46].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 推荐理由 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 致致致致致敬敬敬敬敬每每每每每一一一一一位位位位位平平平平平凡凡凡凡凡而而而而而伟伟伟伟伟大大大大大的的的的的劳劳劳劳劳动动动动动者者者者者 《金融炼金术 》 乔治·索罗斯 • 《金融炼金术》是金融巨鳄乔治·索罗斯的哲学沉思录，更是一部颠覆传统经济 学范式的经典之作。不同于主流经济学对"理性人"假设的迷恋，索罗斯以"反身 性理论"为核心，揭示了金融市场中参与者认知与客观现实互相作用的动态本质 ——人的偏见会扭曲市场，而扭曲的市场又进一步强化偏见，形成永动的反馈 循环。这一理论不仅解释了他为何能精准狙击英镑、预言金融危机，更提供了 一种理解复杂系统的思维方式：市场不是冰冷的数学游戏，而是人性与规则的 共振场。 《中国的选择 》 新加坡 马凯硕 推荐理由 • 以全球视角深度解析中国发展逻辑与外交战略。作者结合历史纵深与现实案 例，客观呈现中国崛起背后的制度韧性、文化基因与治理智慧，同时直面西方 误读，揭示中西博弈的本质差异。书中既有对"一带一路""人类命运共同体"等战 略的透彻分析，又通过经济数据与民生改善案例，展现中国道路的实践成 ...