Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the price of raw material butadiene has been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdown of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires is in a restorative growth trend, but some enterprises face increased sales pressure, with continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,240 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the position of the main contract is 19,529, down 958; the 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 6,680 tons, down 300 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 260 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 65.41 US dollars/barrel, up 0.88 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 62.49 US dollars/barrel, up 0.87 US dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 565.38 US dollars/ton, down 6.62 US dollars; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1220 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 11,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 68.02%, down 1.33 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 30,870 tons, down 6,030 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, up 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.2%, up 4.46 percentage points; the weekly production profit is - 1,233 yuan/ton, down 1,060 yuan; the social inventory is 32,200 tons, down 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,650 tons, down 1,000 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,470 tons, down 430 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.33%, up 19.98 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, up 20.32 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, up 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, up 11.56 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 42.77 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.78 days, up 0.69 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. - As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week, and some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 22,783, a decrease of 3,722. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 7,320 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 12,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 66.09 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.54 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China butadiene price is 1070 US dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 63.15 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.52 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 147,800 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 69.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,900 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, unchanged. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 74.74%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 173 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,600 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 27,650 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.52 days, a decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.09 days, a decrease of 0.82 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production around May 6. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 19% decrease from March and a 9.4% increase from 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-05-07 - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory. The inventory level is at the mid - year position, and it is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or load - reduction operation stage due to the holiday, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the br2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 and 11,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 25,104, with a week - on - week decrease of 639. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,470 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 190 tons [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 275 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.15 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.92 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 59.09 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 790 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 554.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1000 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons [2]. 3.1.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in manufacturers is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1790 tons; the weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in traders is 5100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1490 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The continuous increase of raw material butadiene has slightly alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises has increased. As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

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