本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 14210 | 385 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 34953 | 1983 | | | 合成橡胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | 100 | 155 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 18840 | 100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 13400 | 350 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 250 主流价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term production and trade enterprise inventories are expected to change little. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. The semi - steel tire production slightly increased due to foreign trade orders, while the all - steel tire production decreased due to increased shipment pressure. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be stable and slightly weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR2603 contract in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,265 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,340, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,155. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 9,420 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, all with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 220 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.57 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.98 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.39 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.76 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 568.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.75 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 34,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Synthetic Rubber - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 76.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 1,002 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 281 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 35,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 29,050 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,150 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 6,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,690 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a decrease; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with an increase. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.8 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 48.53 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61 days. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 73.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - There were few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants recently, supply remained high, and downstream procurement continued to push down prices due to sufficient spot resources. Affected by shipment pressure and production profit, the inventory of some production enterprises still increased this week, while downstream low - price procurement increased due to the price advantage of arbitrage resources [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest for synthetic rubber was 99,182 contracts, a decrease of 1,394 contracts [2] - The spread between the second and third contracts of synthetic rubber was -60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The total warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber were 6,530 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2] - Brent crude oil was at 66.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.05 dollars [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 725 dollars/ton [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 560.25 dollars/ton [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,140 dollars/ton [2] - WTI crude oil was at 62.02 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.87 dollars [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan [2] Group 3: Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [2] - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was -335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2] - The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons [2] Group 4: Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces [2] - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days [2] - The weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2] Group 5: Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. Output increased as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized, and some semi - steel tire enterprises had more foreign trade orders [2] - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton (5.50%) increase from the previous period [2] Group 6: Core View - The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has increased significantly due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and export deal rumors, but downstream resistance to high prices has led to a difference in negotiations. The inventory of producers and traders has increased, and there is no sign of supply reduction in the short term. The downstream end lacks the willingness to stock up at high prices, and the inventory of producers and traders is expected to remain high [2] - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilizes. In the short term, some semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall production schedule is expected to be stable. All - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,900 - 12,650 yuan/ton in the short term [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is predicted that the inventory level may further increase this week due to continuous supply growth and short - term impact on raw material procurement from downstream maintenance; the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week; the BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 1,1645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 40,237 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,024 tons; the 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong are 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,500 yuan/ton, and 11,600 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 115 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of all - steel tires in the current month is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days and 47.05 days respectively; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.83 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%; the capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, 4.65 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year; as of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.07% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. Sample production enterprise inventories increased, and sample trading enterprise inventories decreased slightly. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 10,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 76,409, an increase of 48,955. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions increased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.49 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.26 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 58.88 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 563.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene (CFR China) was 860 dollars/ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 7,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.11%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,230 tons, a decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. As of December 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4th, the production of previously overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 4th, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this period, but due to downstream price - pressing, trading was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. Some Shandong plants are about to undergo temporary overhauls, which will lead to a slight decrease in supply, and both production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to decrease slightly [2].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term inventory increase of production and trading companies in the synthetic rubber industry is expected to be limited, and the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,600 in the short term. The recovery of overall capacity utilization will be restricted by some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of the week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,310 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the main contract position is 48,804, down 3,217. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 0, up 5. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 3,410 tons, up 300 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton, and most have increased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, down 0.14 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 571.5 dollars/ton, up 5.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.55 dollars/barrel, down 0.52 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 70.97%, down 1.56 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 47,300 tons, up 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.99%, up 0.73 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 70.19%, down 2.45 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 434 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.24 million tons, up 0.09 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,900 tons, up 270 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,540 tons, up 660 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year [2] Industry News - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 26, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the current period, with sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and a continuous decline in negotiation prices, the cost side has been dragging down negatively. Both the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased. Some devices will restart this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in domestic future supply, the cost side of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation of firm price - pressing by downstream terminals is difficult to change, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises' devices are operating stably this week, and it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2601 contract is expected to be between 10,000 - 10,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85; the position of the main contract is 83,698, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,988. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,350 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85. Brent crude oil is 63.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25; naphtha CFR Japan is 581.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; WTI crude oil is 59.75 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 118; the weekly social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 25,770 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,430 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 3,520 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23 days [2] Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly in October. As of November 6, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term raw material prices are expected to remain bearish, leading to a significant price difference between private and state - owned resources. Downstream buyers may wait for price drops. Production enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline, while trade enterprise inventories may slightly increase [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Most enterprises will maintain current production schedules in the short term, and the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive a slight increase in capacity utilization. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 35,870, a decrease of 1,926. The synthetic rubber 12 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 3,010 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in various regions decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber was 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at $64.89 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18; WTI crude oil was at $61.05 per barrel, an increase of $0.07. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $740 per ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $582.38 per ton, an increase of $1.88; the price of butadiene CFR China was $850 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 7,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.06%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 52.3%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.95%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 421 yuan/ton, an increase of 625 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,200 tons, a decrease of 1,450 tons; the weekly trader inventory was 3,680 tons, a decrease of 840 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.41%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.01 days, a decrease of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.82 days, a decrease of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons month - on - month (5.52%) and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Recently, the output and capacity utilization rate have slightly declined [2]. - As of October 30, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous period (6.90%) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of previously overhauled devices, and the recent strengthening of natural rubber has led to a callback in the mainstream supply price and better low - price transactions. However, more domestic butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance, and the inventory level of production enterprises continues to rise while that of trading enterprises decreases. In the short term, more maintenance of domestic butadiene rubber devices is expected, which may lead to a decline in production and capacity utilization. Considering the weak raw material end, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease and that of trading enterprises will increase [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased as most enterprises have resumed production after the holiday, but the overall market performance has not improved significantly. Some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control to control inventory growth. It is expected that the operation of enterprise devices will be stable in the short term. The BR2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,120 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 69,872, with a decrease of 2,100. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 3,050 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of butadiene rubber from different manufacturers are stable, with prices such as 11,100 yuan/ton and 11,050 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 170 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.59 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.27; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 551.5 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 11.5; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 970 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 1.26; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100; the price of WTI crude oil is 58.5 US dollars/barrel, with a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.53 million tons, with a decrease of 0.01; the capacity utilization rate is 65.79%, with a decrease of 1.58; the port inventory of butadiene is 30,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.04%, with a decrease of 0.24 [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, with a decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 74.82%, with an increase of 8.41; the weekly production profit is 184 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.28 million tons, with an increase of 0.05; the manufacturer's inventory is 1,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 4,860 tons, with a decrease of 840 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.72%, with an increase of 17.46; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 64.52%, with an increase of 13.65. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,314 million pieces, with an increase of 11; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6,025 million pieces, with an increase of 219 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.95 days, with a decrease of 0.53; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.17 days [2]. Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber), a month - on - month increase of 15% compared with August and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - As of October 22, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The inventory level of production enterprises continued to rise, and that of trading enterprises decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. Near the National Day holiday, the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels last week, with overall operating rates slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. During the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 33,214, a decrease of 5,336. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons/week, an increase of 4,300 tons/week. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The current - month production of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]