Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a relatively strong trend post-quarter, with long-end contracts outperforming short-end contracts. As of July 2, the main contracts TL, T, TF, and TS increased by 0.40%, 0.14%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [1] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI - The official manufacturing PMI for June rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a continued recovery in domestic manufacturing sentiment. Key sub-indices showed improvement, with the production index at 51.0% and the new orders index at 50.2%, both reflecting stable performance [2] - The increase in the new orders index was primarily driven by domestic demand, while new export orders saw a limited rebound to 47.7%. The raw material inventory index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting an increased willingness among manufacturers to replenish stocks [2] - Manufacturing prices also showed signs of recovery, with the factory price index and major raw material purchase price index rising to 46.2% and 48.4%, respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 3: Funding Conditions - Post-quarter, the funding environment is trending towards looseness, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to approximately 1.37% and 1.54%. The overnight funding spread is around 8 basis points, indicating a relatively low level [3] - The recent monetary policy committee meeting expressed a more optimistic view on the domestic economic situation, removing references to potential rate cuts, and emphasizing a flexible approach to policy implementation based on economic conditions [3] - The market is sensitive to changes in funding conditions, with expectations for a balanced and slightly loose funding environment in the near future. However, further easing may depend on adjustments to policy rates [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a neutral to slightly bullish stance in trading strategies. Given the current flat yield curve, a loosening of funding conditions is necessary for short-term rates to decline, suggesting a strategy of accumulating TS positions on dips [4] - Attention should be paid to potential profit-taking as bond prices rise significantly, and the existence of a yield spread between new and old 30-year government bonds provides some protection for the bond market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to remain in a bull market environment in the second half of 2025, with government bonds offering good investment value [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the China Government Bond Index for 3-5 year bonds has increased by 1.04% over the past three months [1]. - The E Fund 3-5 Year Government Bond Index Fund (001512) is the only off-market bond fund tracking the government bond index, available for purchase through various platforms [1]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics - The E Fund 3-5 Year Government Bond Index Fund closely tracks the China Government Bond Index, primarily investing in 3-5 year government bonds with low credit risk [1]. - The fund has achieved a one-year return of 3.39% and a three-year return of 9.44%, with an annualized return of 3.16% since its inception in July 2015 [1]. - The fund's scale reached approximately 1.31 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 this year, reflecting a 13-fold increase compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The fund employs sampling replication and dynamic optimization for its investment portfolio, maintaining high transparency and low fees [2]. - The management fee is currently set at 0.15% per year, with a custody fee of 0.05% per year, which is among the lowest in the industry [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from a favorable fundamental environment, with potential further easing of monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Government bonds are considered a good choice for conservative investors due to their high safety and stability [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific derivatives: - Stock index futures: The outlook is "oscillating, slightly bullish" [7]. - Stock index options: The outlook is "oscillating" [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The outlook is "oscillating" [8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock index futures are in a period of sentiment adjustment, with the market showing signs of weakness after consecutive rises this week, entering a short - term observation period, and it is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [7]. - Stock index options are experiencing a temporary lull in sentiment, and it is advisable to take profits opportunistically. If the market remains oscillating, consider switching to a covered call strategy [2][8]. - Treasury bond futures' sentiment has stabilized to some extent. After recent adjustments, factors such as central bank net injections, non - excessive policy surprises, and potential market speculation on PMI data and central bank bond - buying have contributed. However, caution should still be maintained, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market first rose and then fell. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.28%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index fell nearly 2%. Sectors such as banking and telecommunications rose against the trend, while the sentiment in the non - banking financial sector declined. - The open interest of stock index futures ended three consecutive days of increases, indicating profit - taking by funds. The narrowing of the futures discount may be due to some neutral strategy funds shifting from far - month to near - month hedging, with limited significance for trend prediction. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and the spread between current and next - month contracts changed. The total open interest decreased. - It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying market declined across the board. The CSI 1000 initially performed well in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.45%. - The trading volume of the options market was 5.095 billion yuan, a 31.92% decrease from the previous trading day. The main trading drivers may be profit - taking and the re - entry of sellers. - The continuous increase in the intraday trading volume ratio of call options was interrupted, and the over - heated sentiment cooled. The put - call ratio of open interest in stock index options did not decline significantly, and the sellers were still relatively optimistic, but the decline from the high level was not a good sign historically. - The volatility of each option variety declined after a sharp increase the previous day, returning to the end - of - May level, with room for further decline compared to the beginning of the week. - It is recommended to take profits on directional strategies and switch to a covered call strategy if the market remains oscillating [2][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The T main contract initially rose but then declined, ultimately closing down 0.02%, while the TL main contract rose 0.10%, and the TF and TS main contracts were basically flat. - The central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity eased, and the DR007 rate slightly declined. - The National Development and Reform Commission's press conference did not bring excessive policy surprises, and the stock - bond seesaw effect that had suppressed the bond market in recent days may have weakened. - As the end of the month approaches, the market may be speculating on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. - For trading strategies, the trend strategy is to expect oscillation; for hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for yield curve strategies, it is more profitable to steepen the curve in the medium term [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data for the week, including PMI data from the eurozone and the US, the German IFO business climate index, US consumer confidence indices, and US initial and continuing jobless claims [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Hong Kong Dollar: On June 26, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking" of the linked exchange rate system. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold US dollars and bought 9.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the aggregate balance of the banking system will decrease to 164.1 billion Hong Kong dollars on June 27. Multiple factors led to this situation, which is part of the normal operation of the linked exchange rate system [12]. - China Macro: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and will formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [12]. - Digital Assets: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" on June 26, aiming to make Hong Kong a global innovation center in the digital asset field. The new policy builds on the 2022 declaration, promoting the practical application of tokenization, diversifying application scenarios, and constructing a more vibrant digital asset ecosystem [13][14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report separately lists sections for stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not fully presented in the provided text [15][19][31].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pension plan is planning to reduce its investments in U.S. Treasury bonds following a loss of its AAA rating in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The decision to cut U.S. Treasury bond investments is a direct response to the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating [1] - The pension plan aims to reassess its investment strategy in light of the changing credit landscape [1] - This move may indicate a broader trend among institutional investors reevaluating their exposure to U.S. debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government bond credit rating, foreign investors are unlikely to abandon the U.S. bond market due to a lack of suitable alternatives [1] Group 1 - The number of countries with an AAA sovereign credit rating is very limited, approximately 11, and their bond markets are significantly smaller compared to the U.S. bond market [1] - The U.S. market possesses unique depth and breadth that other markets do not have [1] - If long-term government bond yields remain above 5%, a critical point may be reached where the hedging effect, particularly the yield spread, becomes attractive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant performance and liquidity, with expectations for increased government bond purchases by the central bank in July and August due to favorable liquidity conditions and macroeconomic factors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of May 30, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera increased by 0.42%, with a latest price of 111.43 yuan and a trading volume of 4.05 billion yuan [3]. - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.35% over the past year, ranking 4th out of 382 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.05% [4]. - The maximum monthly return since inception was 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 4 months and a total gain of 10.58% [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 7 days, with a peak single-day inflow of 375 million yuan, totaling 878 million yuan in net inflows [4]. - The latest fund size reached 7.541 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past year [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fees - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4].

Group 1 - The recent reduction in bank deposit interest rates from 3.15% to 1.9% indicates a strategic shift by the government to lower corporate loan costs and ease housing loan pressures, while negatively impacting individual savings [3] - The introduction of 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, equivalent to the construction of two medium-sized cities annually, is expected to disrupt the real estate market, with prices starting at 70% of comparable market rates [3] - The simplification of marriage registration processes, including the elimination of the need for household registration books and the introduction of electronic documents, has led to a 45% increase in marriage registrations in Shanghai, suggesting that bureaucratic hurdles previously deterred young couples [5] Group 2 - The rise of AI and automation is significantly impacting the job market, with reports indicating that 30% of manual labor positions in certain factories are being replaced by robots, while new roles for technicians skilled in robot maintenance are emerging with salaries reaching 20,000 yuan per month [5] - Individuals are advised to be cautious with their savings strategies, considering alternatives like government bonds and money market funds over traditional bank deposits, while also being mindful of the risks associated with financial products [7] - Potential homebuyers are encouraged to research affordable housing developments to make informed decisions that could save them significant amounts of money in the long run [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly related to China and the U.S. relations. Core Points and Arguments - The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively influenced market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite, which benefits equity markets and exchange rates but may pressure the bond market. The expected impact on 10-year and 30-year treasury yields is minimal, within 1 basis point [1][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy report for Q1 has reinterpreted the reasons for pausing treasury bond transactions in January, suggesting a potential resumption of trading in Q2, particularly during the peak issuance period in May, which could favor short- to medium-term interest rates [1][5]. - The view remains bullish on the bond market in the medium term, with April treasury futures filling gaps. May and June are seen as favorable periods for buying, with aggressive investors encouraged to enter early, while conservative investors should wait for market adjustments [1][7]. - Following the recent dual rate cuts, yields on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less have decreased, and treasury futures have risen, although 30-year treasury futures have shown limited movement. The impact on the stock and bond markets is considered limited compared to previous rate cuts [1][10][11]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell significantly by over 20%. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, indicating a need for further observation of long-term effects [1][13]. - The market has priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, with potential for a new easing cycle if definitive policies are announced in the coming days. Further cuts in reserve requirements are anticipated in the second half of the year [1][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations is expected to continue affecting the market, with a cautious short-term outlook for equity markets but a long-term optimistic view, particularly for the home appliance sector [2][19]. - The recent dual rate cuts have led to a significant impact on the bond market, particularly favoring short- to medium-term bonds, while the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure [3][8]. - The relationship between policy rates and 10-year treasury yields has shown signs of deviation from historical norms, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future interest rate movements [1][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism for the bond market in Q2, with a recommendation to remain vigilant regarding potential adjustments in investment strategies [1][19].

2025年5月6日，国债期货午盘多数上涨 ，30年期主力合约涨0.12%，10年期主力合约涨0.05%，5年期主 力合约涨0.01%，2年期主力合约跌0.01%。 30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.15%，最新价报113.25元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手 23.4%，成交15.28亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交 29.20亿元。 费率方面，30年国债ETF博时管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达6053.85万元，最新融资余额达 5581.36万元。 截至4月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨16.54%，指数债券型基金排名3/378，居于前0.79%。从 收益能力看，截至2025年4月30日，30年国债ETF博时自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月 数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/4，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比 为69.23%，月盈利概率为72.80%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至 ...