Report on Precious Metals Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Gold: As funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival, the price has corrected. The market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical tensions in South America. Uncertainties are expected to keep precious metals highly volatile in January. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds have significantly increased their holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving up the price. However, high prices may suppress industrial demand. The "irrational" price increase driven by short - term funds is expected to end, and attention should be paid to the risk of passive reduction due to the re - balancing of global commodity indices. A light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: With strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, value re - evaluation is being driven by funds. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term speculation has weakened, and with a strong external market, long positions are recommended on the 20 - day line [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: Most domestic and foreign precious metal futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the AU2602 contract fell by 0.60% to 998.90 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力合约 dropped by 0.86% to 4467.10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot precious metal prices also declined. London gold fell by 0.87% to 4456.07 dollars/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D decreased by 0.27% to 999.20 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 and silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 increased, with historical 1 - year quantiles of 95.10% and 98.30% respectively [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio rose by 3.26% to 57.29, while the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio decreased by 2.89% to 1.26 [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.7% to 4.15%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.14% to 98.74 [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97653, and the silver inventory dropped by 4.82% to 553429 kilograms [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Basis**: On January 7, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3387, the TF basis was 1.5487, the T basis was 1.4478, and the TL basis was 1.5565. Their changes and historical quantiles are also reported [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are various inter - delivery spreads for different Treasury bond futures contracts, such as the TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS's "current quarter - next quarter" spread was - 0.0300 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spreads, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For instance, the TS - TF spread was - 3.1680 [2]. Report on Stock Index Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 23.67, the IH was - 1.32, the IC was - 72.48, and the IM was - 146.22 on January 7, 2026, along with their changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are multiple inter - delivery spreads for different stock index futures contracts. For example, the IF's "next month - current month" spread was - 4772.80 [4]. - **Inter - variety Ratios**: There are various inter - variety ratios, such as the ratio of the CSI 500 to the SSE 300, which was 1.6487, and its change and historical quantiles are also given [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 15.11% to 1312.71, and the SCFIS (US West route) rose by 28.24% to 1107.32. The Shanghai export container freight rates also showed increases for different routes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Most container shipping futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the EC2602 contract fell by 5.00% to 1779.1. The basis of the main contract was - 220.3 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained stable, with a 0.00% change. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 18.50%, while the port calls increased by 5.83%. The monthly export amount increased by 8.23% [7]. - **Overseas Economy**: The Eurozone's composite PMI decreased by 2.46% to 51.50, and the US manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.62% to 47.90 [7].

Group 1 - The current 10-year government bond yield has adjusted to 1.88%, and the 30-year yield has adjusted to 2.31%, indicating that long-term government bonds and local government bonds have investment value if they adjust further by 3-5 basis points or if the upward momentum of equities and commodities slows down [1] - The 3-5 year government bonds still hold significant value, and it is expected that the spread between the central bank's capital and government bonds will continue to compress after the market stabilizes [1] Group 2 - As of January 6, 2026, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has decreased by 0.12%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration has dropped by 0.16%, with the latest price at 115.06 yuan [3] - The trading volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 3.14 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 16.72%, indicating active market trading [3] - Over the past year, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a net value increase of 20.20%, ranking 35th out of 190 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 18.42% [3] Group 3 - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has a maximum monthly return of 2.58% since inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 10 months and the highest cumulative gain during that period being 5.81% [3] - The fund has a historical annual profit percentage of 85.71% and a monthly profit probability of 70.18%, with a 100% probability of profit over a 3-year holding period [3] - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF this year is 0.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [3] Group 4 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF this year is 0.015%, closely following the active bond index for the same duration [4] - The index is composed of government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, selected from the market to reflect the overall performance of these bonds [4]

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is a fixed - income review titled "Why has the bond market adjusted significantly?" dated December 30, 2025, written by analysts Yan Ziqi and Hong Ziyan [1][2][3] Group 2: Events - On December 29, Treasury bond futures in the morning session broke through multiple points, followed by a decline in spot bonds, and the yield to maturity of 30 - year Treasury bonds rose significantly throughout the day [3][9] Group 3: Reasons for Bond Market Decline - From a news perspective, it is a pricing of the weekend policy combination. The release of the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" on December 26 made the bond market conjecture a lower probability of interest rate cuts next year, and the National Fiscal Work Conference on December 28 raised concerns about intensified supply - demand contradictions [5][10] - In a bearish market, the market is more likely to believe in pessimistic narratives. Short - term factors include securities firms' selling and a lack of承接 institutions, especially at the end of the year when there are few long - bond承接 institutions, with only insurance institutions as relatively strong buyers [5][10] Group 4: Over - pricing Analysis - In recent weeks, it has been normal for the bond market to decline sharply on Monday/Tuesday and slowly recover from Wednesday to Friday. Considering factors such as the 3 - day trading week, the end - of - year behavior of banks and securities firms, and the trading environment, there is a possibility of recovery, and an over - callback + slow - recovery pattern may be a pricing paradigm [5][11] Group 5: Short - term Concerns - On December 31, pay attention to whether the 30 - year Treasury bonds in the issuance plan are new issues or follow - on issues. Different situations will have different impacts on bond pricing and liquidity [6][11] - After the New Year, observe whether insurance institutions switch to selling Treasury bonds to verify if the purchase of ultra - long bonds at the end of the year is for liquidity management [6][11] - After the New Year, focus on the "good start" of bank credit, whether the divergence between certificates of deposit and the money market continues, and whether there is a possibility of tightening in the money market [6][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the bond market is receiving strong support from policy measures, with a focus on revitalizing existing policies and expanding domestic demand through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for policy coordination to create a neutral to bullish environment for the bond market, with expectations that the policy environment in 2026 will be better than in 2025 [1] - The article notes that the probability of domestic interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is increasing, especially with the anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve, further solidifying the support for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The National Treasury ETF (511010) has seen a net inflow of over 210 million yuan for five consecutive days, indicating strong capital inflow and positioning in the market [1] - The National Treasury ETF (511010) tracks the 5-year government bond index (000140), reflecting the overall performance of medium to long-term government bonds in China [1] - Despite a weak fundamental state, there may still be some downward space for government bond yields, and investors are advised to pay attention to the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) and the National Treasury ETF (511010) [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustments have led to a noticeable shift in household fund allocation, with a clear trend of moving from bank deposits to the government bond market [1][3] - The sales of government bonds aimed at individual investors have surpassed 5 trillion yen (approximately 32 billion USD) this year, marking the highest level since 2007 [1] - The issuance of retail bonds for the fiscal year has reached 5.28 trillion yen, with significant increases in interest rates for various bond products [1][4] Group 1 - The current environment has seen an increase in household investor participation in the government bond market due to the gradual adjustment of the Bank of Japan's large-scale bond purchasing operations [3] - Retail government bonds are appealing to individual investors as they offer both enhanced yields and principal protection, leading to a rising demand for these products [3] - A specific example includes a 37-year-old housewife who shifted funds from bank deposits to a ten-year floating-rate government bond, attracted by higher yields compared to bank savings [3] Group 2 - The latest issuance plan for retail government bonds has set fixed interest rates for various maturities, with the five-year fixed rate reaching 1.35%, the highest since 2007, and the ten-year floating rate hitting a record since its introduction in 2003 [4] - The interest rate for ten-year fixed deposits at banks remains around 0.5%, highlighting the comparative advantage of government bonds in terms of yield [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the focus on specific active bonds and hedging strategies for 5-year government bonds, particularly bonds 250208 and 250203, as well as the 5-year government bond-TF strategy [1] - For 30-year government bonds, the current yield spread between new and old bonds remains high, with non-active bonds showing good holding value, particularly bonds 250002 and 25T2 [1] - The 10-year government bond yield spread is around 7 basis points for bonds 250220-250215 and 1 basis point for bonds 250016-250022, indicating reasonable spreads [1] Group 2 - The liquidity of the 5-10 year government bond ETF is active, with a turnover rate of 58.28% and a transaction volume of 1.134 billion yuan [2] - The latest scale of the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 1.947 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 318 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [3] - The management fee rate for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [4] Group 3 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the last three months is 0.024%, closely tracking the index of active bonds [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for a rise in 10-year bond yields due to a high-risk appetite sentiment expected at the beginning of next year, despite concerns over significant special treasury supply and nominal growth recovery [1] - It is anticipated that the 10-year government bond yield may rise to 1.9% or higher in the next 1-2 months, while the 30-10Y yield spread is expected to remain between 35-45 basis points, with a possibility of expanding to 50 basis points due to increased supply next year [1] - The article suggests that in the short term, investors should focus on opportunities in mid-term credit and mid-term government bonds, as current funding rates are low and may attract more investment [1] Group 2 - As of December 16, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has seen a slight increase of 0.01%, with the government bond ETF for the same duration also rising by 0.01% to a price of 115.32 yuan [2] - The trading volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 38.38% and a total transaction value of 746 million yuan [2] - The latest scale of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.945 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 318 million yuan over the past 10 trading days [3] Group 3 - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past two months is reported at 0.024%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [5] - The index tracks actively traded government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, reflecting the overall performance of these bonds [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is increased downward pressure on the fundamentals, while the central economic work conference has expressed a neutral fiscal and proactive monetary stance, which together create a certain bullish sentiment. However, there are still concerns regarding debt pressure and market fragility that may cause disturbances. The market is expected to continue wide fluctuations [1] - The strategy suggests that the liquidity situation is expected to remain stable, and investors can continue to collect interest-bearing assets. After the redemption risk marginally eases, the risk of the market breaking above the upper limit decreases, and a slightly bullish approach is recommended to cope with market volatility. It is advised to look for adjustment opportunities for trading participation [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is approaching the upper limit of 1.85%, indicating a potential opportunity for active participation in the market [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, 2025, the China Securities 5-10 Year Government Bond Active Bond Index (net price) has decreased by 0.08%. The latest quote for the government bond ETF 5-10 years is 115.47 yuan, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - In terms of liquidity, the government bond ETF 5-10 years had a turnover of 119.13% during the day, with a transaction volume of 2.321 billion yuan, reflecting active market trading. Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume has been 1.405 billion yuan [2] - The latest scale of the government bond ETF 5-10 years has reached 1.946 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced. Over the last five trading days, it has attracted a total of 31.1747 million yuan [2] - The maximum drawdown for the government bond ETF 5-10 years in the past six months is 1.09%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.54% [2] - The management fee for the government bond ETF 5-10 years is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%. The tracking error for the past month is 0.022% [2] Group 3 - The government bond ETF 5-10 years closely tracks the China Securities 5-10 Year Government Bond Active Bond Index (net price), which selects bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years from the market to reflect the overall performance of these government bonds [3]

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, with the latest price at 108.39 yuan as of November 21, 2025 [1] - The ETF has experienced a significant net inflow of 1.143 billion yuan over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The total shares of the benchmark government bond ETF have reached 63.9805 million, marking a one-year high, while the total scale has reached 6.927 billion yuan, also a one-year high [1] Group 2 - The benchmark government bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's benchmark market-making government bond index, consisting of 25 government bonds that are adjusted monthly [2] - This ETF is characterized as a comprehensive medium-term government bond index, reflecting a diverse range of key duration government bonds [2]

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) is currently experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 108.39 yuan and a turnover rate of 6.43%, amounting to a transaction volume of 463 million yuan [1] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume for the benchmark government bond ETF has been 8.176 billion yuan, with a recent net inflow of 804 million yuan [1] - The total shares of the benchmark government bond ETF have reached 60.8505 million, marking a one-year high, while the total scale has reached 6.597 billion yuan, also a one-year high [1] Group 2 - Since its inception, the benchmark government bond ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 2.67%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 9 months and a maximum increase of 6.94% [1] - The historical probability of annual profitability stands at 100%, with a monthly profitability probability of 71.59% and a one-year holding profitability probability also at 100% [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that the current bond market is in a pricing dilemma, with long-term interest rates maintaining a sideways trend, prompting a focus on coupon-bearing assets [1] Group 3 - The benchmark government bond ETF is a distinctive product in the market, covering multiple key duration government bonds and primarily tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange benchmark market-making government bond index [2] - It selects approximately two of the latest listed bonds from various maturities, including 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, with a total of 25 component bonds that are adjusted monthly [2]