热点速评 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议[1]，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。我们对其中涉及金融领域的重点信息进行归纳。 Text 正文 前期政策落实落细。政治局会议提到"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，我们认为这意味着下半年的政策重点在于延续和落实前期 已经部署的政策，包括推出结构性货币政策新工具、政府加杠杆支持化债和财政发力、保持充裕的流动性环境等。会议也提到"促进社会综合融资成本下 行"，我们认为下半年降准和降息仍有空间，特别是人民币汇率稳中有升缓解了对货币政策的约束，央行对于银行间流动性投放也有所宽松；具体降准降 息时点选择可能仍然有灵活性，根据经济增长情况和海外利率环境相机抉择。 "反内卷"措施更加市场化。政治局会议提到"依法依规治理企业无序竞争""推进重点行业产能治理"，相比7月初中央财经委会议"依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争""推动落后产能有序退出"的提法去掉了"低价""产能退出"的措辞，一方面说明"反内卷"并非单纯"涨价"，另一方面强调政策手段更为市场化、法治 化，与2016年供给侧改革的行政化手段有所不同，也并非"一刀切"关停产能。对于银行资产质量而言，"反 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on July 31, with the release of the July official PMI data not exerting pressure on the performance of bonds, leading to an overall increase in government bond futures and a general decline in interbank bond yields by approximately 2 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan in the open market, while the overall funding situation remained stable, with a slight increase in overnight repurchase rates at the month-end [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.57% to 119.120, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.485, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.725 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds saw a slight decrease, with the 10-year government bond yield down nearly 2 basis points, reported at 1.786% for "25国开10" and 1.703% for "25附息国债11" [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose on July 30, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.38 basis points to 3.941% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.57 basis points to 4.368% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 0.5 basis points to 3.357%, while the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.703% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms had winning yields of 1.3677%, 1.6187%, and 1.7341%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4.15, 4.49, and 3.52 [4] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate increasing by 7.5 basis points to 1.392% [5] Economic Indicators - The official non-manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, also down by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [6] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the political bureau meeting's cautious stance on real estate and anti-involution reflects a long-term planning focus rather than short-term stimulus [7] - China Galaxy Securities indicated limited incremental changes from the political bureau meeting, suggesting a downward trend in bond yields, while monitoring risk preferences and government bond supply [7] - CICC highlighted the potential for fiscal policy adjustments in the fourth quarter, with a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [7]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened, focusing on effective release of domestic demand potential and deepening reforms [1][4] - The current economic situation is characterized by strong resilience, with GDP growth in the first half of the year reaching 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued by the end of June [5] - Emphasis was placed on structural support in monetary policy, particularly for small and micro enterprises, to stabilize employment and residents' income [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is centered on promoting consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing employment and expanding demand [6] Group 3 - The meeting proposed to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition [7] - There is a need for timely support policies for foreign trade enterprises affected by external uncertainties, including financial support and optimizing export tax rebate policies [8][9] - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively and orderly addressing local government debt risks and prohibiting the addition of new hidden debts [10] Group 4 - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, focusing on improving investment return expectations and resource allocation [11] - Suggestions were made to lower operational thresholds for capital market support tools and to create new financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need to continuously prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly focusing on urban renewal and local government debt management [1] Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference to conduct high-quality urban renewal [1] - There is a call for proactive and prudent measures to resolve local government debt risks, with a strict prohibition on the creation of new hidden debts [1] - The meeting stressed the need to effectively and orderly advance the clearing of local financing platforms [1] Group 2 - The meeting aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate the positive momentum of market stabilization [1]