Group 1 - Elon Musk criticized the "Big Beautiful Bill," targeting Republican lawmakers who supported the tax bill, vowing to ensure their defeat in the upcoming midterm elections [1] - Musk's statements may disrupt the internal dynamics of the Republican Party and add uncertainty to the party's primary elections in 2026 [1] - The bill raised the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion, prompting Musk to call for the establishment of a new political party that genuinely cares for the people [1] Group 2 - Musk condemned the latest version of the "Big Beautiful Bill," arguing that cuts to electric vehicle and clean energy subsidies would harm the future of American industries and lead to significant job losses [2] - On June 29, the Senate passed an updated version of the bill with a vote of 51 to 49, which eliminated the $7,500 tax credit for consumers purchasing electric vehicles [2] Group 3 - Musk's recent threats indicate a significant shift in his political strategy, moving from supporting Trump to criticizing Republican colleagues who back Trump's tax policies [3] - Previously, Musk had invested $250 million in the 2024 election cycle to support Trump, but he has now expressed a desire to reduce political spending [3] - In response to Musk's criticism, Trump attempted to downplay their differences, acknowledging Musk's capabilities while suggesting that his behavior was inappropriate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerated push by the U.S. Congress for the "Big Beautiful Bill," which is a central piece of Trump's economic agenda [1]. Legislative Process - On June 29, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" with a 51-49 result, allowing it to enter the debate stage [2]. - The vote lasted nearly four hours, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party [3]. - The Senate Republicans need to make further adjustments to secure the necessary 50 votes for the final approval [3]. Political Reactions - Elon Musk criticized the proposed tax reform, claiming it would destroy millions of jobs and harm future industries [4]. - Polls indicate that the bill could be politically detrimental for the Republican Party [5]. Debt Ceiling and Financial Implications - The bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, marking a historical high and potentially leading the U.S. into a debt crisis [8]. - The bill also aims to eliminate certain tax credits and subsidies for green energy, which has raised concerns among various stakeholders [13]. Delays and Challenges - Democrats are employing tactical delays, including a strategy to read the entire 940-page bill aloud, which could postpone the final vote [9][10]. - Even if the Senate passes the bill, it must return to the House for another vote, where some Republicans have expressed opposition to significant cuts in medical assistance [12]. Compromises and Adjustments - The latest version of the bill includes compromises to appease different factions within the Republican Party, such as delaying the implementation of certain tax caps and establishing a fund for rural hospitals [13]. - The bill also raises the threshold for renewable energy subsidies, requiring projects to be operational by the end of 2027 to qualify [13].

特朗普："大漂亮"法案将削减1.6万亿美元的开支。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump appears to be heading towards reconciliation, with both parties showing signs of mending their relationship after a series of social media exchanges and public statements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - The conflict began when Musk criticized Trump's "Big Beautiful" plan, calling it "disgusting" and accusing Trump of being ungrateful, even linking him to the Epstein case [2]. - Trump responded with anger, threatening to revoke government contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies, while denying any connection to Epstein [2]. Group 2: Signs of Reconciliation - Following the feud, Musk deleted several critical posts about Trump, including calls for impeachment and accusations related to Epstein [2]. - Musk expressed regret over his previous comments about Trump, stating that he felt he had gone too far [1][4]. - Trump acknowledged Musk's apology and indicated a willingness to move past their differences, wishing Musk well and suggesting he might remove his Tesla from the White House but would keep Starlink services [3][4]. Group 3: Role of Key Figures - Reports indicate that Vice President Mike Pence and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows played crucial roles in mediating the situation, encouraging Musk to resolve the dispute with Trump [3]. - Pence maintained a low-profile approach, supporting Trump while avoiding direct criticism of Musk, which allowed him to act as a mediator [3].

周三，亿万富豪投资人、Tudor Investment创始人Paul Tudor Jones表示，特朗普很可能会任命一位"极度 鸽派"的美联储主席，以配合其推动经济增长的政策方向。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。Jones指出，在继任人选方面，美国财政部长贝森特 可能是特朗普的首选人选。 Jones认为，尽管贝森特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什都是优秀的候选人，但考虑到特朗普对经济增长的执 着和对个人忠诚度的高度重视，使贝森特成为了脱颖而出的候选人。 Jones管理的Tudor Investment是全球知名的宏观对冲基金，当前资产管理规模约为160亿美元。 Jones："大漂亮法案"将对股市和债市构成威胁 他还警告，特朗普主推的"大漂亮法案"虽包装精巧，但未来将对股市和债市构成威胁，并可能刺激美联 储在未来12个月内降息。 Jones说道： "'大漂亮法案'真的很有趣，这个名字在品牌塑造上堪称天才。那'大漂亮法案'的对立面是什 么？如果要平衡预算，那可能就是'大可怕法案'了（Big Beastly Bill）。" Jones还表示： "如果我是特朗普，我要做的第一件事就是任命一个最鸽派的央行官 ...

Core Insights - The "Big Beautiful" bill is projected to add up to $2.8 trillion in deficits over the next decade, but its short-term economic stimulus effect is minimal, with only a 0.2 percentage point increase in growth expected by 2026, turning negative by 2028 [2][16] - The bill features a "discriminatory tax" clause (Section 899) that introduces significant uncertainty for foreign investors holding U.S. assets, potentially increasing their investment costs [7][17] - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, predicting a 4-5% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2025, as the era of U.S. economic exceptionalism comes to an end and capital inflows face risks [7][29][31] Fiscal Impact - The bill's deficit growth is front-loaded, with two-thirds of the total deficit occurring between 2025 and 2029 [6] - Additional tax relief measures are concentrated in the early years and will expire by 2028 [10] - Spending cuts will not begin until 2027, with Medicaid cuts peaking only in 2032 [13] Debt Market Implications - The combined effects of tariff revenues and spending cuts have led to a reduction in deficit expectations, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the U.S. Treasury market [18] - The U.S. Treasury has significant flexibility in financing, relying on short-term bills due to low issuance levels and high demand for short-term debt [23] - Risks remain regarding foreign investor behavior, particularly the impact of Section 899 on different maturities of U.S. Treasuries [26] Investment Environment - The investment climate in the U.S. is facing deterioration risks, with the dollar expected to weaken [29] - The end of U.S. economic exceptionalism suggests that future growth will align more closely with the rest of the world, complicating financing for large deficits [29] - The reliance on foreign capital to cover the current account deficit is significant, with portfolio inflows projected to exceed the deficit by 125% in 2024, making the implications of Section 899 particularly concerning for European investors [31][33]

在华盛顿的权力游戏中，很少有盟友关系的破裂能如此迅速地从私下不和演变为公开宣战。 仅仅一周前还在白宫享受金钥匙告别仪式的马斯克，如今正与特朗普总统进行着一场社交媒体"核战"—— 威胁着特朗普核心立法议程的同时，也让硅谷与 MAGA之间苦心经营的联盟面临彻底崩塌。 而当世界首富开始暗示总统应被弹劾并声称掌握其与爱泼斯坦的关联时，市场已经嗅到了危险的味道。 特马大战陷入僵局，硅谷抓狂 特朗普和马斯克的盟友们正竭力修复这一裂痕，试图将本周这场"撕逼大战"造成的政治和商业损失降至最低。 白宫这边，据华尔街见闻 此前文章 ，有报道称，特朗普的幕僚们为双方安排了一场周五的通话。就在吃瓜群众坐等双方和解之时，白宫很快否认了关于这份 报道。特朗普周五接受媒体采访时称，没兴趣与"失去理智"的马斯克对话，还声称考虑卖掉他的红色特斯拉。 德克萨斯州参议员Ted Cruz在周五表示："这很不幸……我希望他们能重新走到一起。很多保守派都觉得这样不好，让我们拥抱和好吧。"当天，特朗普在椭圆 形办公室怒斥马斯克时，Cruz就在现场。 马斯克似乎对缓和态势持开放态度 ，他对冲基金经理Bill Ackman敦促两人"为了我们伟大国家的利益而和 ...

在华盛顿的权力游戏中，很少有盟友关系的破裂能如此迅速地从私下不和演变为公开宣战。仅仅一周前还在白宫享受 金钥匙告别仪式的马斯克，如今正与特朗普总统进行着一场社交媒体"核战"——威胁着特朗普核心立法议程的同时， 也让硅谷与MAGA之间苦心经营的联盟面临彻底崩塌。 而当世界首富开始暗示总统应被弹劾并声称掌握其与爱泼斯坦的关联时，市场已经嗅到了危险的味道。 特马大战陷入僵局，硅谷抓狂 特朗普和马斯克的盟友们正竭力修复这一裂痕，试图将本周这场"撕逼大战"造成的政治和商业损失降至最低。 白宫这边，据华尔街见闻此前文章，有报道称，特朗普的幕僚们为双方安排了一场周五的通话。就在吃瓜群众坐等双 方和解之时，白宫很快否认了关于这份报道。特朗普周五接受媒体采访时称，没兴趣与"失去理智"的马斯克对话，还 声称考虑卖掉他的红色特斯拉。 德克萨斯州参议员Ted Cruz在周五表示："这很不幸……我希望他们能重新走到一起。很多保守派都觉得这样不好，让 我们拥抱和好吧。"当天，特朗普在椭圆形办公室怒斥马斯克时，Cruz就在现场。 马斯克似乎对缓和态势持开放态度，他对冲基金经理Bill Ackman敦促两人"为了我们伟大国家的利益而和解"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public feud between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump has significant implications for both companies and the broader market, with potential impacts on legislation and investor sentiment. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 5, Musk and Trump engaged in a public confrontation, which led to a crisis communication effort from the White House [1][2] - Trump downplayed the conflict in a media interview, claiming everything was going well and boasting about his approval ratings [4][5] - Financial leaders, including hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, called for a resolution between Musk and Trump for the sake of national interest [8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Tesla's market value plummeted by $152.3 billion in a single day, marking its largest one-day drop, while Musk's personal wealth decreased by nearly $20 billion [19] - The options market saw unprecedented bearish bets on Tesla, with approximately 4.01 million put options traded, surpassing previous records [21] - Despite the bearish sentiment, there was also significant activity in bullish options, indicating some investors viewed the drop as a buying opportunity [22] Group 3: Legislative Implications - The conflict centers around Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan," which Musk criticized for its projected $2.4 trillion deficit, leading to their public dispute [16] - The outcome of their conversation could influence the progress of this significant legislation, which encompasses key aspects of Trump's agenda [17] Group 4: Broader Impact on Companies - Trump's media technology group's stock fell by 8%, resulting in a personal wealth loss of approximately $202 million for Trump [32] - The potential retirement of SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft, as suggested by Musk, could severely impact U.S. space initiatives and government contracts for both Tesla and SpaceX [34] - The uncertainty surrounding the relationship between Musk and Trump raises questions about Tesla's valuation and the future of Dogecoin, which is sensitive to Musk's public statements [35]

就在华尔街还在消化"特马"公开撕破脸的冲击波时，白宫内部已悄然启动危机公关——一通定于周五的电话，会实现双方的"世纪和解"吗？ 昨晚，美国政治舞台上演了戏剧性的180度大转弯。就在马斯克对特朗普的"大漂亮法案"狂轰滥炸的同一天，这位美国总统在接受海外媒体采访时 却表现得云淡风轻。 "哦，没关系，"特朗普今日在媒体的电话采访中谈及与这位昔日超级金主的公开决裂时说道，"一切进展顺利，从未如此好过。"随后他开始吹嘘 自己的支持率，称"数字爆表了，这是我有史以来的最高民调"。 这种轻描淡写的态度与几小时前两人在社交媒体上针锋相对的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。更关键的是，特朗普的幕僚们已经安排了今晚总统与马斯 克的通话，试图斡旋一场和平。 华尔街大佬紧急救火 当两位全球最有权势男人的恩怨威胁到牵涉数万亿美元的立法进程时，金融界的重量级人物坐不住了。对冲基金经理Bill Ackman率先在X平台上 呼吁停火。 "我支持特朗普和马斯克，他们应该为了我们伟大国家的利益而和解。" 马斯克的回应耐人寻味："你说得没错。" 网友Alaska劝两位都冷静下来，各退一步。马斯克回应说：好建议，我不会让龙飞船退役。 这一微妙的表态被市场解读为 ...