科技为国而商，为需而兴——2025年中国商业科技的发展与2026年展望 崔传刚 新经济学家智库特约研究员 2025年，由中美主导的全球商业科技竞争，已经进入"近身博弈"的深化期，与此同时，中国科创力量在商业化赛道的强势崛起，正成为重塑全球产业格局 的关键变量。从人工智能大模型的规模化落地到人形机器人产业的场景渗透，从商业航天的规模化运营到"太空经济"的多元探索，以至于半导体芯片的自 主突破与光刻机的技术攻坚，中国的商业科技产业正在以一种"技术突破—场景验证—商业变现"的闭环发展模式，勾勒出前途远大的发展图景。 在这一年，中国的商业科技与实体经济持续深度融合，既加速推动了新质生产力的形成、夯实了中国的硬经济根基，更鲜明呈现出一种核心趋势：中国科 技商业化的进程不再仅局限于单纯经济价值的创造，而是已然与国家的战略需求形成高度协同。在一系列的关键领域，科技商业化和国家战略已形成 了"产业赋能国家、国家支撑产业"的良性互动态势，商业价值的创造与国家利益的增进正变得越发同步。 这一趋势，可以说是全球科技竞争逻辑演变的一种必然结果，同时也深受各国产业发展的客观差异影响。 来源：经济学家圈 从国际视野看，科技中立主义正日渐 ...

分析认为，本轮上涨源于产业进入"四轮驱动"发展阶段：政策支持明确，资本投入踊跃（超10家企业启 动IPO），技术迭代加速（可回收火箭突破），以及需求持续释放（星座组网与终端普及同步推进）。 四重动力共同推动卫星制造、发射、地面设备及运营服务全链条进入高景气周期。 作为覆盖产业链各核心环节的高效工具，卫星产业ETF(159218)已成为资金布局商业航天长期趋势的"温 度计"与"通行证"。在行业基本面持续向好的背景下，该ETF有望继续吸引中长期配置型资金，为投资 者提供参与"太空经济"战略机遇的便捷渠道。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月31日，卫星板块再现异象：数据显示，截至14时59分，卫星产业ETF(159218)涨7.36%，前几大权 重股方面，航天电子、中国卫星涨停封板，中科星图涨11.09%，资金热度不减，据Wind Level2实时行 情结合均价预估，盘中净流入超200万，此前持续维持净流出态势。截至发稿，以实时成交价估算，盘 中预估规模超15亿，在全市场同标的ETF中规模居首。 | 卫星产业ETF | | 159218 +0.124 ...

Group 1 - The satellite industry is experiencing a significant surge, with the satellite industry ETF (159218) reaching a new annual high, reflecting strong market sentiment and capital inflow [1][3] - Key stocks within the satellite industry have shown substantial gains, with notable increases such as 14.06% for Hangda Universe and 11.48% for Xinke Mobile-U, indicating robust performance across the sector [2] - The current growth phase of the industry is driven by four main factors: clear policy support, active capital investment (with over 10 companies initiating IPOs), accelerated technological advancements (notably in reusable rockets), and sustained demand release through satellite constellation networking and terminal proliferation [2] Group 2 - The satellite industry ETF (159218) serves as an efficient tool covering all core segments of the industry chain, acting as a "thermometer" and "pass" for capital allocation in the commercial space sector [3] - With the industry's fundamentals improving, the ETF is expected to continue attracting medium to long-term investment funds, providing investors with a convenient channel to participate in the "space economy" strategic opportunities [3]

2025年收官日，卫星产业以强劲涨势为全年行情画上句号。12月31日下午，卫星产业ETF(159218)涨幅 扩大至5.66%，继续刷新年度高点。板块龙头股集体爆发，其前三大权重股中国卫星、中国卫通、北斗 星通均强势涨停封板，显示出强大的资金凝聚力和市场情绪。 | 卫星产业ETF(SZ:159218) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ¥1.736 +0.093 +5.66% | | | 交题中 12-31 13:25:39 北京时间 | 1.01 万球友关注 | | 三: 1.738 | 今年:1.633 | 张停:1.807 | 成交量:187.35万手 | | | 是低:1.633 | 昨收:1.643 | 跌停:1.479 | 成交额:3.17亿 | | | 摘手:一 | 市价:1.736 | 皇位净值:1.642 | 基金份额: 8.75亿 | | | 振幅: 6.39% | 溢价率:0.12% | 景计净值:1.642 | 名产净值:15.18亿 | | | 成立日:2025-05-14 | 净值日期:2025-12-30 | 到期日 :- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic partnership between JunDa Co., Ltd. and Shangyi Optoelectronics, focusing on the development and commercialization of perovskite battery technology for space energy applications, highlighting the advancements in battery efficiency and the growing demand for energy solutions in the space economy [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership and Technological Advancements - JunDa Co., Ltd. has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shangyi Optoelectronics to invest in the latter as a strategic shareholder, aiming to integrate industry and scenario resources for perovskite battery technology applications in space energy [1]. - JunDa has achieved a laboratory efficiency of 32.08% for perovskite tandem batteries, positioning itself at the forefront of the industry, with plans to complete the first industrialized N-type + perovskite tandem battery by November 2025 [1]. - The partnership will establish a collaborative mechanism for technology research and development, on-orbit verification, and application scenario expansion [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation deployment is entering a rapid growth phase, with over 100,000 satellites planned, indicating a shift towards dense networking and large-scale development [2]. - The functionality of low Earth orbit satellites is evolving from remote sensing and communication to on-orbit AI training and edge computing, increasing the demand for lightweight and efficient energy solutions [2]. - The space economy is becoming a core arena for reshaping global technological competition, with significant implications for energy supply and thermal efficiency in ground computing facilities [2]. Group 3: Advantages of Perovskite Batteries - Perovskite batteries offer advantages such as ultra-lightweight, low cost, high radiation resistance, and flexible deployment, making them a revolutionary solution for space energy challenges [3]. - The lightweight nature of perovskite batteries can significantly reduce spacecraft payload weight, thereby lowering launch costs [3]. - The cost of raw materials for perovskite batteries is substantially lower compared to traditional gallium arsenide batteries, making them suitable for large-scale applications [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues its upward trend, driven by favorable catalysts in the commercial aerospace and robotics sectors, with significant gains in related ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing multiple positive catalysts, including the successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which provided key engineering data for future technology iterations [2]. - Blue Arrow Aerospace, a leading private aerospace company, has completed its IPO guidance work, marking a significant step towards entering the capital market [2]. - Upcoming industry events, such as the 2025 Commercial Aerospace Development Conference, are expected to further promote industry consensus and accelerate the commercialization of aerospace [2]. Group 2: Robotics - Fenglong Co., Ltd. announced a change in its controlling shareholder to UBTECH, the first publicly listed humanoid robot company globally, which is expected to enhance business synergy [3]. - The recent unveiling of Tesla's humanoid robot in Berlin demonstrated its commercial application potential, performing tasks like packaging and delivery [4]. - The launch of the first robot rental platform, "Qingtian Rent," in Shanghai aims to provide integrated solutions and is expected to expand to 200 cities, serving over 400,000 people [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Both commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics are identified as high-growth sectors with potential market sizes exceeding trillions [7]. - Continuous technological breakthroughs in both sectors are accelerating commercialization, with humanoid robots already being deployed in manufacturing environments [8]. - Supportive policies from major countries are encouraging investment in both sectors, with initiatives aimed at simplifying processes and promoting collaboration between state and private enterprises [9]. Group 4: Capital Activity - The commercial aerospace sector is projected to exceed 20 billion RMB in financing by 2025, with various stakeholders, including internet giants and local government funds, establishing dedicated funds [11]. - The robotics sector has seen over 600 financing events in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant investments from tech giants and venture capital targeting early-stage technologies [13]. - The enthusiasm in the primary market is beginning to influence the secondary market, with notable increases in relevant indices, such as the China Satellite Industry Index and the National Robot Industry Index [15]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with core technological advantages and clear business models in both sectors [22]. - A gradual investment approach is recommended, emphasizing long-term holdings to navigate the high volatility associated with these growth sectors [22]. - ETFs like the E Fund Satellite ETF and the E Fund Robotics ETF provide convenient investment tools for exposure to the entire industry chain [23].

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is reportedly planning to go public with a potential IPO in 2026, aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion and raising over $30 billion, marking a significant shift from Elon Musk's previous stance against IPOs [5][6][9]. Group 1: SpaceX's IPO Plans - SpaceX's valuation has reportedly doubled from $400 billion in July 2025 to $800 billion, with further plans to reach $1.5 trillion by 2026 [5][6]. - The company is exploring alternative IPO structures, such as using a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) to bypass traditional IPO processes [6]. - If successful, SpaceX's IPO could become the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record [9]. Group 2: Comparison with Chinese Commercial Space Industry - Chinese commercial space companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology, are also pursuing IPOs, with a combined valuation of approximately 85.5 billion yuan, only 0.8% of SpaceX's valuation [7][16]. - The significant valuation gap is attributed to differences in launch costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 costing about $3,000 per kilogram compared to domestic costs of around 150,000 yuan per kilogram [7][17]. - The Chinese commercial space sector faces challenges in achieving lower costs and higher launch frequencies, which are critical for establishing a sustainable business model [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Prospects - SpaceX is projected to generate over $15 billion in revenue this year, with expectations of reaching $22-24 billion in annual revenue by 2026 [12][17]. - The company has raised over $10 billion to date, indicating strong financial backing and a robust funding capability compared to other private firms [9]. - The transition to public markets will require SpaceX to adopt a more rigorous pricing mechanism, balancing cash flow certainty from Starlink with the capital-intensive nature of Starship [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - JunDa Co., Ltd. (02865) has announced a strategic partnership with Shangyi Optoelectronics, focusing on the application of perovskite battery technology in space energy, marking a significant step in the company's expansion into the aerospace sector [1]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - JunDa Co., Ltd. will invest in Shangyi Optoelectronics as a strategic shareholder, aiming to integrate industry and scenario resources [1]. - The collaboration will establish a synergy mechanism in areas such as technology research and development, in-orbit verification, industrialization, and application scenario expansion [1]. Group 2: Industry Positioning - This strategic cooperation is seen as a rapid advancement of JunDa's photovoltaic battery technology in the aerospace field, aligning with the national strategy for becoming a space power [1]. - The company aims to expand its presence in the space economy sector and cultivate future growth engines, leveraging its leadership in global photovoltaic battery technology [1].

Core Insights - The satellite industry ETF (159218) experienced a significant increase of 2.28% as of 10:09 AM on December 24, indicating a resurgence in the sector [1] - Major stocks in the satellite sector showed varied performance, with China Satellite rising by 4.43% and Zhongke Xingtou declining by 0.48% [1] - The trading volume in the sector was approximately 120 million yuan, reflecting increased market activity [1] Industry Overview - The competition for space resources is intensifying, positioning satellite internet as a new frontier in global technological competition [1] - The space economy is projected to evolve into a new industrial domain, encompassing satellite communication, navigation, remote sensing, and space tourism [1] - The satellite communication industry is expected to exceed 200 to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate ranging from 10% to 28% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation deployment and space computing industry are entering a phase of explosive growth, positioning the space economy as a core arena for reshaping global technological competition [1] Industry Summary - According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the total planned number of global low Earth orbit satellites has surpassed 100,000, marking a new stage of dense networking and large-scale development in the industry [1] - The functionality of low Earth orbit satellites is continuously upgrading, expanding from remote sensing and communication to on-orbit AI training and low-latency edge computing tasks, which increases the demand for satellite energy to be "lightweight and high-efficiency" [1] Company Summary - As AI computing clusters rapidly expand, ground computing is facing dual challenges of energy supply and heat dissipation efficiency, with power and cooling demands expected to exceed the capacity of existing ground facilities, making space computing a critical solution [1] - The prospects for explosive growth in space computing are clear, indicating significant investment opportunities in this sector [1]