多地中小银行密集调降存款利率，有银行却逆势上调 金十数据5月13日讯，近日，多地中小银行密集调整存款利率，部分机构中长期限利率跌破2%，进入"1 时代"。同时，个别银行逆势上调了部分期限的存款利率，出现长短期"倒挂"现象。融360数字科技研究 院高级分析师艾亚文表示，这种现象属于个例，不具有普遍性。她预计，受央行政策影响，2025年下半 年存款利率仍有20~30个基点的下调空间。投资者应调整收益预期，分散投资，适当增加权益类投资。 （每经网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of deposit rates by local small and medium-sized banks continues, with many institutions lowering rates, while a few are increasing them, leading to a phenomenon of inverted rates between short-term and long-term deposits [1][4][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Since May, many local small and medium-sized banks have been adjusting their deposit rates, with some long-term deposit rates falling below 2% [1][2]. - For example, the deposit rates at Liaocheng Hunan Rural Commercial Bank were reduced across all terms, with the one-year rate dropping from 1.95% to 1.8%, a decrease of 15 basis points [2]. - In contrast, Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank announced an increase in rates for certain short-term deposits, with the one-year rate rising to 2.0% and the two-year rate to 2.05%, both higher than the three-year and five-year rates [1][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts expect that deposit rates will continue to decline in the second half of the year, with a potential reduction of 20 to 30 basis points anticipated [8]. - The central bank's recent policy changes, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates, are expected to lead to further decreases in deposit rates [6][7]. - The overall trend indicates that banks are under pressure to lower their funding costs to maintain net interest margins, which have been narrowing [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend in China's banking sector shows a significant downward adjustment in deposit interest rates, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, with some banks making multiple adjustments within a month [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, with decreases ranging from 5 basis points to 170 basis points [1] - For instance, Qingxu Rural Commercial Bank adjusted its deposit rates for various terms, with the 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year rates set at 1%, 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively [1] - Deqing Rural Commercial Bank also lowered its 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposit rates by 5, 10, 10, and 25 basis points to 1.65%, 1.7%, 1.95%, and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Impact on Private Banks - Private banks, which previously offered the highest deposit rates, are now significantly lowering their rates, bringing them closer to those of state-owned banks, with some rates even falling below those of joint-stock banks [2] - For example, WeBank announced a reduction in its fixed deposit rates across various terms, with the 5-year, 3-year, 2-year, and 1-year rates all set at 1.60%, reflecting a decrease of 40 basis points for longer terms and 20 basis points for the 1-year term [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - According to industry experts, the ongoing decline in deposit rates is influenced by factors such as market competition, customer positioning, and liability structure among different banks [3] - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to help private banks maintain stable interest margins and enhance their development capabilities [3] - As deposit rates decrease and consumer expectations improve, the attractiveness of capital and wealth management markets may increase, leading to continued pressure on banks to lower deposit rates further [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows that nearly 80% of banks have a net interest margin (NIM) below the self-regulatory mechanism's warning line of 1.8%, indicating significant pressure on the banking sector's profitability as interest rates continue to decline [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - As of the end of 2024, 36 A-share listed banks reported a decline in NIM compared to the previous year, with the lowest being Shanghai Bank at 1.17%, down from 1.28% in 2023 [3][4]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank's NIM has dropped to 0.8%, while Luzhou Bank has the highest at 2.49% [4]. - Among non-listed banks, Shanxi Bank has a particularly low NIM of 0.57%, highlighting the pressure on smaller institutions [2][5]. Factors Influencing NIM - The decline in NIM is attributed to several factors, including the continuous reduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), insufficient effective credit demand, and a general decrease in the yield of interest-earning assets [5][7]. - The recent political bureau meeting has led to speculation about potential adjustments to deposit rates, particularly for smaller banks, which may face greater pressure to lower rates [2][6]. Market Expectations and Future Adjustments - Analysts predict that the next round of deposit rate adjustments may prioritize smaller banks to alleviate pressure on larger banks' liabilities [7][8]. - The overall trend indicates that banks will need to continue reducing deposit rates to manage funding costs and mitigate the narrowing of interest margins [7][8].