证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业理财研究 银行理财月度跟踪 相关研究： 1. 《2026年银行业策略：高股息 为盾，静待价值修复》 行业评级：增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -5.6 | 1.8 | -17.8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | -1.4 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 理财市场动态 2025.12.31 理财信息披露规则体系进一步规范。近日，金融监管总局发布《银行保险 机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办法》，旨在统一银行理财、信托、保险 资管三类产品的信息披露监管规则，解决现行标准不一的问题。《办法》 核心是构建覆盖产品全生命周期的信息披露体系，在坚持"同类业务、相 同标准"统一原则的基础上，对公募产品与私募产品实施差异化要求，形 成"1+3"的规则体系。 《办法》严格规范业绩比较基准调 ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者 关注。12月24日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波 动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。 对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现净值波动。12月 24日，北京商报记者注意到，社交平台上有不少投资者留言求助，"买入理财产品前净值一直较为稳 定，入手后净值却出现波动"；也有投资者表示，"本想靠理财增厚收益，没想到持有一个月却收效甚 微"；还有不少持观望态度的投资者直言，"看到多款产品提前终止、净值下跌的消息，现在不敢轻易入 手了，担心本金受损"。 从市场表现来看，Wind数据显示，自11月以来债市开启持续调整模式，12月上旬曾短暂反弹，但中旬 再度走弱。截至12月24日收盘，30年期超长期国债收益率报2.2185%，较前一交易日下跌0.45个基点； 10年期国债收益率企稳于1.835% ...

岁末年终，受债市波动影响，以债券为主要配置资产的固收类理财产品净值出现明显回撤，引发投资者关注。12月24日， 北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台上，有不少投资者反映购买的理财产品净值出现波动，部分产品甚至出现提前终止的情 形；也有不少观望者因产品提前终止、净值下跌等消息望而却步。对此，多家银行及理财公司发文"科普"，并针对不同风 险偏好投资者给出资产配置建议。 中信证券首席经济学家明明也持相似观点。他表示，近期债市情绪已出现好转，前期调整较大的超长债则开启修复行情， 市场对"跨年行情"的期待重燃。与此同时，近期人民币汇率走强，对债市也构成利多：一方面人民币计价资产吸引力提 升，另一方面货币宽松空间也有所打开，债市仍有修复空间，超长债有望受益于期限利差的回落，更具性价比。 展望2026年债市走势，明明分析称，短期来看，债市面临的扰动因素仍存，权益市场表现较好、通胀预期回升、银行负债 端缩短久期等都是长债的制约因素，但在央行宽松货币政策的支持下，明年长债利率有望迎来阶段性下行行情，全年视角 下长债利率或将先下后上。 债市调整理财产品现回撤 进入年末，债市出现连续调整现象，让不少以债券为主要配置资产的银行理财产品出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the sustained growth of the bank wealth management market, driven by a low interest rate environment and seasonal factors, with the total outstanding scale reaching approximately 34 trillion yuan by the end of November, marking a historical high [3][5]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - As of the end of November, the total outstanding scale of bank wealth management reached about 34 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 0.35 trillion yuan from the end of October [5]. - November is historically a month of growth for wealth management products, with an average increase of about 0.37 trillion yuan in November for 2023 and 2024 [6]. - The "deposit migration" effect, driven by declining deposit rates, has led to increased attractiveness of wealth management products, with average annualized returns remaining above 2% [6][10]. Group 2: Product Performance and Structure - In November, the performance of wealth management products showed some pressure, with average performance benchmarks for open-ended and closed-end products declining by 0.02 percentage points to 2.15% and 2.37%, respectively [7]. - Cash management products continued to see a downward trend in yields, with a near 7-day annualized yield of approximately 1.23% as of December 7, slightly above the average of money market funds but still under pressure [7]. - The "fixed income plus" products have performed better due to a temporary recovery in the equity market, enhancing the overall attractiveness of wealth management products [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the approaching year-end, the market outlook for the growth of wealth management scale remains optimistic, with expectations of a slight recovery in December due to the release of previous floating profits [9]. - The core logic supporting the expansion of the wealth management market remains unchanged, with "deposit migration" being a key long-term driver [9][10]. - The introduction of diverse asset allocations in "fixed income plus" products is seen as a crucial factor for future growth, aiming to meet varying risk preferences of investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market continues to grow, reaching a record high of approximately 34 trillion yuan by the end of November, driven by a low interest rate environment and seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth - As of the end of November, the total bank wealth management scale reached about 34 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 0.35 trillion yuan from the end of October [2]. - November is historically a month of growth for wealth management products, with an average increase of about 0.37 trillion yuan in November for 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The "deposit migration" effect, driven by declining deposit rates, has significantly influenced the growth of wealth management products [2][5]. Group 2: Product Performance - The performance of wealth management products showed some differentiation in November, with pure fixed-income products remaining stable while "fixed-income+" products benefited from a temporary recovery in the equity market [3]. - The average performance benchmark for open-ended products was 2.15%, down 0.02 percentage points, while closed-end products had an average benchmark of 2.37%, also down 0.02 percentage points [3]. - Cash management product yields continued to decline, with a near 7-day annualized yield of approximately 1.25%, reflecting ongoing downward pressure [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the approaching year-end, the market outlook for the growth of wealth management scale remains optimistic, with expectations of a slight recovery in early January [5][6]. - The long-term expansion logic of the wealth management market remains unchanged, with "deposit migration" being a key driving force [5][6]. - "Fixed-income+" wealth management products are seen as a crucial area for future growth, with potential for diversification into themes like retirement and green finance [6].

11月银行理财规模延续上涨态势。业内人士认为，季节性规律与存款利率下行驱动的资金搬家成为 其核心增长动力。尽管12月季末银行考核带来的资金回表压力可能引发理财规模阶段性回调，但机构普 遍预计年底这一数字仍将站上33万亿元关口。 与规模增长形成反差的是，11月现金管理类、纯固收类理财产品收益率同步承压，同时年底前完成 估值整改的监管时限日趋临近，银行理财净值化转型进一步深化。在此背景下，理财机构积极调整策 略，通过多资产配置提升收益弹性，同时拉长封闭式产品期限以适应净值化转型。 季节性规律叠加资金搬家 面对收益端持续承压的局面，理财公司积极调整策略，"固收+"产品成为行业发力的核心方向。例 如，今年以来，多家理财公司明确表态，将通过直接投资或间接参与的方式，持续增持交易型开放式指 数基金（ETF），并布局指数策略、指数增强策略等含权理财产品，在提升收益弹性的同时助力资本市 场发展。 "我们的权益投资以ETF为核心工具，并在此基础上，灵活运用个股直接投资、其他基金配置及委 托投资等多种方式。去年以来，ETF已成为理财公司布局权益市场的重要手段。在选择ETF时，我们重 点考量估值水平、市场风格以及对后市的展望。目前 ...

● 本报记者 李静 11月银行理财规模延续上涨态势。业内人士认为，季节性规律与存款利率下行驱动的资金搬家成为其核 心增长动力。尽管12月季末银行考核带来的资金回表压力可能引发理财规模阶段性回调，但机构普遍预 计年底这一数字仍将站上33万亿元关口。 与规模增长形成反差的是，11月现金管理类、纯固收类理财产品收益率同步承压，同时年底前完成估值 整改的监管时限日趋临近，银行理财净值化转型进一步深化。在此背景下，理财机构积极调整策略，通 过多资产配置提升收益弹性，同时拉长封闭式产品期限以适应净值化转型。 季节性规律叠加资金搬家 展望12月，尽管传统季末时点临近，银行考核压力将推动部分理财资金回流表内，可能引发理财规模阶 段性回调，但机构对整体态势仍持乐观预期。华西证券首席经济学家刘郁认为，12月是理财估值整改的 最后窗口期，前期浮盈的全面释放将兑现为存续产品收益，叠加存款搬家的持续效应，年底理财规模有 望站上33万亿元关口。 多家机构统计数据显示，11月理财规模延续上涨态势。华源证券研报表示，截至11月末，理财规模合计 34万亿元，较10月末增加0.35万亿元。华西证券研报也表达了类似看法：截至11月末，理财规模为3 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of bank wealth management reached 3.16 trillion yuan by the end of November, marking a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The number of existing wealth management products totaled 45,132, reflecting an 11.69% growth compared to the end of November last year [1] Group 1: Product Types - Fixed income products saw the fastest growth, with a total scale of 2.42 trillion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year, accounting for 76.57% of the total wealth management products, an increase of 4.52 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Cash management products experienced a significant reduction, with a scale of 6.61 trillion yuan, down by 1.02 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing 20.88% of the total, a decrease of 4.72 percentage points [2] - Equity products also saw a slight decline, with a scale of 24.598 billion yuan, down 17.11 billion yuan year-on-year, making up 0.08% of the total, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2] Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Products - "Fixed income +" products have diversified, primarily using fixed income assets like bonds to provide basic returns, supplemented by a certain proportion of equity assets to enhance yields, appealing to investors seeking low volatility and stable returns [3] - Examples include "fixed income + preferred shares" and "fixed income + convertible bonds," which have been well-received in the market [3] Group 3: Performance and Trends - The issuance of wealth management products continued to grow, with 2,321 new products launched in November, an increase of 441 from the previous month, with over 70% of new products being open-ended [4] - The average annualized yield for open-ended fixed income products reached 2.79%, up 0.35 percentage points month-on-month, while closed-end products saw a yield of 3.38%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [4] - The recovery in yields is attributed to declining deposit rates and seasonal market changes, particularly as year-end approaches, which typically tightens the money market [4] Group 4: Cash Management Product Yields - Cash management products have seen a decline in yields, with the average annualized yield for the past seven days at 1.26%, down 0.02 percentage points month-on-month [5] - The one-month average yield was 1.27%, also down 0.02 percentage points, while the three-month yield averaged 1.28%, down 0.02 percentage points [5] - The one-year average yield stood at 1.44%, down 0.04 percentage points, and the average yield since inception was 1.57%, down 0.03 percentage points [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the scale of cash management products, dropping from over 7.3 trillion yuan at the end of last year to around 6.5 trillion yuan by the end of September this year, attributed to multiple factors including falling market interest rates and regulatory restrictions [1][2] - The shift in investor preference towards daily open-type financial products is noted, as these products offer wider investment scopes and higher yield flexibility, becoming a preferred alternative to cash management products [2][3] - Financial companies are implementing strategies to enhance the attractiveness of cash management products, including introducing zero or low-fee products and expanding sales channels through partnerships with small and medium-sized banks [2][3] Group 2 - Despite short-term challenges for cash management products, their importance remains for investors needing liquidity for daily expenses and emergencies, suggesting a potential shift in their strategic role from being the mainstay to a foundational component in investment portfolios [3] - The industry is expected to focus on diversifying product structures to stimulate growth, including the development of a "fixed income plus" product system that incorporates various asset classes such as equities, gold, and cross-border assets to meet investor demand for yield flexibility [3]

Core Insights - The announcement from Inner Mongolia's Tongyu County Mengyin Village Bank regarding the cancellation of 5-year fixed deposits has drawn market attention, marking the first instance of such a move by a bank [1] - Many banks are suspending or have already removed 5-year specialty fixed deposit products, while 3-year specialty fixed deposits are becoming competitive and require prior reservation to secure [2][3] - The phenomenon of long-term deposit rates being lower than short-term rates has become commonplace, with several banks offering lower rates for 5-year deposits compared to 3-year deposits [4][5] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - Mengyin Village Bank has reduced its 5-year fixed deposit rate to 1.9%, which is only 0.5% higher than its 3-year fixed deposit rate before adjustments [1] - Other banks, including China Merchants Bank, have also suspended their 5-year specialty fixed deposit products, offering only standard fixed deposits at lower rates [2][3] Market Trends - The trend of long-term deposit rates being lower than short-term rates is evident, with banks like China Merchants Bank and SPDB offering 5-year fixed deposits at rates below 1.4% [4][5] - The average rate for 3-year specialty fixed deposits can reach up to 1.75%, making them more attractive compared to 5-year options [4] Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that deposit rates will continue to decline, leading banks to adjust their deposit products and strategies to manage costs effectively [6][7] - The narrowing of net interest margins across the banking sector is a significant concern, prompting banks to reconsider their long-term deposit offerings [8]