Group 1 - The issuance of special government bonds in China has accelerated, with a total of 286 billion yuan issued on April 24, marking the first issuance of the year and accounting for approximately 16% of the annual target of 1.8 trillion yuan [1][2] - The issuance of special bonds is part of a broader strategy to enhance macroeconomic stability amid significant economic pressures, with a focus on supporting specific projects and stabilizing financial markets [1][2] - The 2025 special bond issuance plan includes 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term projects and 500 billion yuan specifically for capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks, reflecting an 80% increase from the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - The first tranche of special bonds includes 1.65 trillion yuan for central financial institution capital injection, representing about 33% of the total planned for this purpose [2] - The issuance timeline has been moved up compared to last year, with this year's first issuance occurring significantly earlier than the previous year's [2][4] - The funds from the special bonds will be allocated primarily to local governments, with 87.7% designated for transfer payments, indicating a strong focus on regional economic support [4] Group 3 - The special bonds are expected to enhance the capital base of major state-owned banks, which are crucial for maintaining financial stability and supporting the real economy [3][4] - The government aims to use the proceeds from the special bonds to fund various strategic initiatives, including infrastructure development, ecological protection, and upgrading public services [3][4] - The bonds will be issued in various maturities, including 20, 30, and 50 years, and will be available for purchase by individual investors through designated channels [4][5]

关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非典型转冷状态。一方面，居民部门动能大幅衰减，消费活动濒临收缩。另一方面，企 业部门表现依然稳健，与"劳工荒"共同支撑就业市场。特朗普与美联储矛盾持续激化。考虑到就业市场并未显 著转冷，叠加关税引发的再通胀担忧，以鲍威尔为首的多数美联储官员态度继续偏鹰，对降息持高度谨慎态 度。然而，特朗普团队希望美联储大幅降息以减轻财政付息压力，并激活私人投资，将美国经济从政府驱动转 向私人驱动模式，双方因而爆发激烈冲突，特朗普持续炮轰鲍威尔及美联储。 前瞻地看，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的概率极低，"鹰派"将继续主导美联储政策，以理事沃勒为首的少数鸽派亦难掌 握话语权。预计美联储年内将降息2次50bp，以对冲财政退坡及政策不确定性对企业投资的可能冲击。 境外市场在受到特朗普关税政策的巨大冲击后，本周波动略有降低。美债利率小幅回落至4.3%，美元、人民 币窄幅震荡，黄金继续上涨突破3,300美金。 美股本周下跌，主要因美国对中国芯片出口限制及美联储的态度低于预期。 ...

Focus - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for timely new incremental policies to address changing domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to strengthen domestic circulation and boost consumption [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance states that if the U.S. continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, China will not respond, highlighting the unilateral nature of U.S. actions [4][6] Major Meetings - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the U.S. inflation rate remains slightly high, and there is increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, leading to a cautious approach in future monetary policy adjustments [6][7] Major Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of financial asset management companies, enhancing regulatory effectiveness and risk management [7][8] - A joint opinion from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to support the high-quality development of the sports industry through diversified financial services and improved financing models [8][10] Major Events - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, issued a bond totaling 90 billion yen (approximately 4.6 billion RMB), marking its smallest yen transaction since entering the Japanese market in 2019 [10][11] Important Data - In March 2025, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, with a notable narrowing of the decline; the Producer Price Index (PPI) also fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.5% year-on-year [11][12] - The core CPI showed a significant recovery, rising by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating improvements in supply-demand structure and positive price changes [12]