Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The overall economic sentiment in China has declined, with the composite PMI output index at 49.8% (↓0.9pp) indicating a contraction in economic activity [1] - Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.3% (↓0.8pp), below Bloomberg's expectation of 50.1% [1][2] - Non-manufacturing PMI is at 49.4% (↓0.8pp), also below Bloomberg's expectation of 50.3% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing supply and demand indices have decreased: - Production index at 50.6% (↓1.1pp), indicating continued expansion [4] - New orders at 49.2% (↓1.6pp) and new export orders at 47.8% (↓1.2pp), showing a decline in demand [4] - Price indices show signs of recovery: - Main raw material purchase price index at 56.1% (↑3.0pp) and factory price index at 50.6% (↑1.7pp), with the latter exceeding the critical point for the first time in 20 months [4] - Large enterprises maintain expansion with PMI at 50.3% (↓0.5pp), while medium and small enterprises show contraction at 48.7% (↓1.1pp) and 47.4% (↓1.2pp) respectively [4] - Market expectations remain generally positive with a production and business activity expectation index at 52.6% (↓2.9pp), still above the critical point [4] - Specific industries such as agricultural and food processing have maintained high activity levels, with expectation indices above 56.0% for two consecutive months [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The construction industry has entered a contraction phase due to factors like low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with a business activity index at 48.8% (↓4.0pp) [5] - New orders index at 40.1% (↓7.3pp) and business activity expectation index at 49.8% (↓7.6pp), marking the latter's first drop into contraction since March 2020 [5] - Input prices have risen to 52.0% (↑1.1pp) for four consecutive months, while sales prices at 48.2% (↑0.8pp) and employment index at 41.1% (↑0.1pp) show varying degrees of recovery [5] - Service sector shows slight decline with a business activity index at 49.5% (↓0.2pp) [6] - Financial services, capital markets, and insurance sectors remain active with indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector's index has dropped below 40.0%, indicating weak sentiment [6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The production index stood at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend in related industries [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, indicating sustained expansion and a strong supporting role in the manufacturing sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 65%, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year, providing a favorable financing environment for growth [4] - The service sector's business activity expectation index rose to over 57%, indicating optimism among enterprises regarding the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on service sector demand [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the market demand issue is gradually easing, with a decrease in the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient demand, down 9.4 percentage points to 54.9% [2] - The manufacturing production and operational activity expectation index was at 52.6%, indicating confidence in future manufacturing activities [3] - Post-Spring Festival, it is anticipated that investment-related demand will be released, potentially boosting the construction sector's sentiment [5]

企业预期保持乐观 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月下 降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从供需两端看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需 求有所回落。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月 下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 1月份，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信 心较强。 文韬认为，1月份，受季节性因素和外部因素影响，制造业运行有所波动，但市场需求有趋稳迹象，生 产活动保持扩张，市场价格联动上升，产业结构继续优化，制造业后市回稳运行具备基础。预计2月 份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会回归正常运行，制造业将继 续 ...

价格指数双双回升。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指 数分别为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界 点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数均升至55.0%以上，相关行业原材料采购和产品销售价格总体水平上涨。 大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显 现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 光明日报北京1月31日电（记者董蓓）国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会31日发布的 数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.3%、49.4%和49.8%。生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张。 《光明日报》（2026年02月01日 02版） 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读数据时说，从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设 ...

市场需求趋稳制造业新动能延续扩张 受访专家普遍认为，季节性因素、出口环境变化等成为拖累因素。但与此同时，生产继续保持扩张，金 融市场活跃度显著提升。后续，经济回稳运行具备良好基础，要持续引导释放相关需求，推动经济高质 量发展向深向实。 新华财经北京1月31日电 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会31日发布的数据显示，1 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、中国非制造业商务活动指数和中国综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点。 1月，我国制造业市场需求在上月基础上有所放缓，新订单指数为49.2%，较上月下降1.6个百分点。 "后期，制造业景气度将主要受出口增速变化、国内房地产市场走势、稳增长政策出台的节奏和力度牵 动。"王青说，在年初"一揽子结构性政策"发力后，二季度货币政策有望实施降息降准，财政政策在促 消费、扩投资方向也将全面加力，今年稳增长政策节奏有可能适度提前。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群建议："要显著扩大政府公共产品投资规模，有效扩 大需求、增加企业订单，充分发挥好政府宏观经济治理对市场失灵的有力矫正作 ...

1月31日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个 百分点。非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。 从市场预期看，服务业业务活动预期指数为57.1%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，表明服务业企业对近期市 场发展信心有所增强。何辉指出，服务业业务活动预期指数连续2个月上升，升至57%以上，意味着企 业普遍看好春节消费对服务业的带动作用。 制造业采购经理指数有所下降，生产继续保持扩张 1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季。从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，产成品库存指数、进口指 数、购进价格指数和出厂价格指数有所上升，指数升幅在0.3至3个百分点之间；生产指数、新订单指 数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数、供应商配送时间 指数和生产经营活动预期指数有所下降，指数降幅在0.1至2.9个百分点之间。 受季节性因素和外部因素影响，1月份制造业运行有所波动，但是企业预期仍保持乐观。1月份生产经营 活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产 经营活动预期指数连续两 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读时表示，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加 之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平较上月下降。 制造业采购经理指数有所下降 生产继续保持扩张 1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布中国采购经理指数。数据显示，1月 份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%， 比上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食 品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对 近期行业发展信心较强。 展望后市，文韬预计，2月份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会 回归正常运行，在"十五五"规划布局启动、中央经济工作会议部署落实的带动下，制造业将继续稳定扩 张，高质量发展向深向实。 非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 金融市场活跃度较高 1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][12] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point; small and medium-sized enterprises had PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, both below the critical point [1][15] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion; the new orders index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1][14] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued decrease in inventory levels; the employment index was 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight decline in employment levels [1][14] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2][12] - The construction industry Business Activity Index was 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, while the services industry Business Activity Index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [2][16] - The new orders index was 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand; the construction new orders index was 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points [2][16] - The input prices index was 50.0%, indicating stability in input prices; the construction input prices index was 52.0%, up 1.2 percentage points, while the services input prices index was 49.7%, down 0.4 percentage points [2][3] Group 3: Price and Employment Trends - The sales price index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices; the construction sales price index was 48.2%, up 0.8 percentage points, and the services sales price index was 48.9%, also up 0.8 percentage points [3] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, stable from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions; the construction employment index was 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the services employment index was 47.0%, unchanged [3][16] - The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points but still indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises; the construction expectation index was 49.8%, below the critical point, while the services expectation index was 57.1%, up 0.7 percentage points [3][16] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [4][12] - The manufacturing production index was 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, contributing to the overall decline in the Comprehensive PMI [17]