2025年是很不平凡的一年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。站在岁末回望， 涌现的诸多热词，如一个个生动的切片，记录下经济运行的晴雨、政策调整的风向。 投资于人、人工智能+、资本市场向好……上海证券报记者深入采访了智库和研究机构的8位专家学 者，他们给出的2025年经济"关键词"诠释了这一年的发展成色。 大家都表示，2026年将进一步加大宏观政策逆周期调节力度，加力支持扩大内需，进一步深化改革，充 分释放经济活力和潜力。 作者：李苑 白丽斐 陈芳 于祥明 李雁争 常佩琦 视频制作：王渊 上海证券报出品 【纠错】 【责任编辑:马俊卿】 策划：马婧妤 梁敏 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that as of the end of October 2025, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1][2] - The increase in social financing is supported by a rapid issuance of government bonds and a diversified financing approach by enterprises, moving away from reliance solely on bank loans [2][3] - The structure of social financing has evolved, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total financing increment, indicating a shift towards market-based financing solutions [3][5] Financing Trends - Government bonds issuance has accelerated, with a cumulative issuance of approximately 22 trillion yuan from January to October, which is nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the previous year [2] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds has increased from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, reflecting fiscal support for economic growth [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.1% in October, down about 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a decline in financing costs for enterprises [6] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance has shown steady improvement, with the composite PMI output index at 50.0% in October, indicating a stable economic environment [7][8] - Experts suggest that the macroeconomic policies implemented will continue to support economic recovery, with a solid foundation for achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% [8][9] - The current low inflation is attributed to a combination of supply and demand factors, and there are signs of price stabilization as macroeconomic policies take effect [10][11]

Key Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the macroeconomic environment, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, indicating a contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 50.1% [5][6] - The semiconductor industry shows promising growth, particularly for companies like Jinghe Integrated, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by new product developments [9][10] - The defense and aerospace sector, represented by companies like Guangwei Composite, experienced a revenue increase of 4.4% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 32.55% [18][19] Macroeconomic Overview - October's PMI data reflects a significant impact from holiday scheduling and international trade uncertainties, leading to weaker manufacturing supply and demand [5][6] - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, while new orders also declined [5][6] - Non-manufacturing sectors showed slight improvement, with construction activity indicating a positive trend [5][6] Semiconductor Industry - Jinghe Integrated's Q3 2025 results show a revenue of 8.13 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.9% [10] - The company is actively developing OLED DDIC, CIS, automotive-grade chips, and PMICs, with a focus on process upgrades [9][10] - The transition to 4F2+CBA architecture in DRAM is expected to create outsourcing opportunities for peripheral circuits [12] Defense and Aerospace Sector - Guangwei Composite reported total revenue of 1.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 4.4% increase, but net profit fell by 32.55% [18][19] - The company’s third-quarter revenue was 785 million yuan, reflecting a 5.24% year-on-year increase and a 23.58% quarter-on-quarter increase [18][19] - The energy new materials segment showed rapid growth, with a 58.95% increase in revenue, while the fiber expansion segment saw a decline [19][20]

Manufacturing Sector - The October Manufacturing PMI index is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September[2] - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The new orders index stands at 48.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points, with new export orders at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points[2] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The October Non-Manufacturing PMI index is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining above the threshold[10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, unchanged from September, while the new export orders index is at 46.2%, down 3.6 percentage points[10] - The construction sector's PMI index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued contraction[13] Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cycle deployment as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes[1] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for local government debt to support effective investment, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize growth[1] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises[15]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has achieved full coverage of structural monetary policy tools in key financial sectors, with significant year-on-year growth in various loan categories, including technology loans (12.5%), green loans (25.5%), inclusive loans (11.5%), elderly care industry loans (43%), and digital economy loans (11.5%), all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [1] - The banking sector is focusing on high-quality, resilient, and sustainable development rather than mere scale expansion, as evidenced by the mid-year performance of 42 A-share listed banks, which showed improved credit structure and asset quality, stabilizing key performance indicators [1] - Many banks are emphasizing adherence to industry regulations and long-term planning, moving away from short-term profit-seeking behaviors and over-reliance on traditional interest margins, thus transitioning towards a more diversified income structure [1] Group 2 - The financial sector needs to optimize its structure while maintaining reasonable total growth, leveraging market efficiency to allocate resources effectively and enhancing the capability and willingness of financial institutions to support key areas [2] - Financial management departments are encouraged to continuously optimize monetary and credit policies, reduce funding and regulatory costs for banks, and foster a supportive environment for high-quality development by moving away from a focus on short-term asset and profit metrics [2] - The banking industry is urged to actively seek change by diversifying its profit model beyond traditional interest margin reliance, expanding non-interest income sources, and enhancing digital transformation to better serve the real economy [3] Group 3 - Macro policies have shifted towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a focus on long-term reforms and policies that can be implemented promptly to guide the financial system towards positive outcomes [3] - Financial strategies must balance the need for continued support for the real economy with the necessity of preventing and mitigating potential financial risks, ensuring a sustainable development path [3]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth process is closely linked to the balance between total supply and total demand, and deviations from a reasonable growth rate can lead to macroeconomic imbalances, such as inflation or recession [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Imbalance - Economic growth that deviates from a reasonable range can result in macroeconomic imbalances, with excessive growth leading to supply shortages and inflation, while insufficient growth results in oversupply and deflation [2][3]. - Market mechanisms can exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, necessitating government intervention through scientific macroeconomic regulation to address these issues [3]. Group 2: Reasonable Economic Growth Range - The reasonable economic growth range is determined by the stage of economic development and the potential for supply growth, influenced by structural changes in the economy [5]. - China's modernization path differs significantly from Western models, requiring a unique assessment of its economic development stage [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of Modernization - China's modernization began with a low starting point in terms of per capita GDP, significantly lower than that of Western countries during their modernization phases [6]. - The initial phase of modernization in China was characterized by a lack of capital, necessitating a focus on agriculture and light industry rather than rapid industrialization [8][9]. Group 4: Role of Government and Planning - The Chinese Communist Party's leadership and the socialist system were crucial in overcoming initial capital shortages and income distribution issues, enabling rapid industrialization [10]. - The planned allocation of resources allowed for the concentration of efforts on heavy industry, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system [10]. Group 5: Economic Structure and Growth Potential - By 1978, the industrial value added to GDP had significantly increased, but structural imbalances persisted, particularly between heavy and light industries and between industrialization and urbanization [11]. - Addressing these structural contradictions is essential for continued modernization and economic growth, with significant potential for improvement in living standards and urbanization [12]. Group 6: Current Economic Challenges - Current economic challenges include income distribution disparities, with a Gini coefficient of 0.465 in 2023, indicating significant inequality [13]. - Despite reaching a per capita GDP of $13,000 in 2024, a substantial portion of the population still earns below the poverty line, highlighting the need for sustained economic growth to achieve common prosperity [13]. Group 7: Structural Change Potential - The potential for structural changes in income distribution, urban-rural dynamics, and regional economic disparities remains significant, necessitating a tailored approach to economic policy that considers China's unique modernization path [14]. - The analysis emphasizes that China's economic growth trajectory cannot be directly compared to Western models, as its development context and characteristics differ fundamentally [14]. Group 8: Supply Growth Potential - Assessing the current stage of China's economic development requires an analysis of supply growth potential, which is influenced by existing industrial systems and resource conditions [15]. - China possesses a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system, with production capabilities across a wide range of industries, positioning it as a global leader in industrial output [15].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The National Medical Products Administration plans to implement a 30-day approval system for innovative drug clinical trials to support key national research varieties and encourage global early synchronous research and international multi-center clinical trials [1][6] Group 2: Bond Market - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate bond market issuance and underwriting, prohibiting pre-agreed bond issuance rates and practices that distort market prices [1][6] - The association aims to strengthen the bond market's institutional framework and product innovation, encouraging automotive companies to increase bond financing and promote high-quality development in the automotive industry [1][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][6] - The import and export total in May was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports of 22,767 billion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports of 15,331 billion yuan (down 2.1%) [1][6] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In May, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines [1][6] - Second-tier cities also experienced a month-on-month price decrease of 0.2%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.3%, with the drop expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] Group 5: Corporate Announcements - Lakala announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to advance its international development strategy and accelerate the application of digital currency in cross-border scenarios [2][6] - Midea Group announced a share repurchase plan with a total amount not exceeding 10 billion yuan and not less than 5 billion yuan, with the repurchase period set for 12 months [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the challenges faced by international trade and economic order, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to stabilize the economy and maintain trade resilience [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The international economic and trade order is experiencing severe shocks, leading to increased fragmentation of supply chains and rising trade barriers [1] - These challenges are significantly impacting economic development across countries [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - In response to external shocks, the government is enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments, implementing more proactive fiscal policies, and adopting moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The economy has shown signs of recovery this year, particularly in foreign trade, which has maintained strong resilience [1] Group 3: Future Measures - The government is preparing to introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, while also researching new policy tools, including unconventional measures, to be deployed as needed based on changing circumstances [1] - There is confidence in the ability to sustain positive economic momentum [1]

Group 1 - In April, China's overall export growth slowed to 8.1%, with industrial export delivery value showing a nominal growth of 0.9%, down from 7.7% in March [1] - Manufacturing investment growth for January to April was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The real estate market showed signs of cooling, with some residents opting to wait, leading to declines in housing prices, sales, construction, and funding sources [1] Group 2 - The service sector demonstrated resilience against external shocks, with domestic travel during the Qingming Festival increasing by 6.3% in terms of visitor numbers and 6.7% in total spending [2] - The service production index in April grew by 6.0%, marking the second-highest monthly growth rate of the year [2] - Infrastructure investment from January to April increased by 5.8%, remaining steady compared to the first quarter, supported by easing local government debt issues and proactive fiscal policies [2] Group 3 - Despite external shocks, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [3] - A recent high-level economic meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [3] - Following the announcement, global risk aversion decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices and an increase in stock markets, with major institutions raising their growth forecasts for China's economy [3] Group 4 - Recent financial policies announced by regulatory authorities include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [4] - The government emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, aiming for enhanced economic resilience [4] - As these policies are implemented, the economic resilience of China is expected to further strengthen [4]

Core CPI and Economic Resilience - In April, China's core CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of the domestic economy despite external fluctuations [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a stable inflationary environment [1][2] CPI and Price Movements - The overall CPI in April saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a previous decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal factors and demand recovery, particularly in travel services [2][3] - Energy prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline [2][3] PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a consistent downward trend in industrial prices [3][4] - The gap between purchase prices and factory prices has narrowed, suggesting synchronized adjustments in upstream and downstream prices [4] Policy Measures and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is intensifying economic stabilization policies, including a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [5][6] - Upcoming holidays and strong tourism demand are expected to drive service prices up, leading to a moderate recovery in CPI [6]