文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The National Medical Products Administration plans to implement a 30-day approval system for innovative drug clinical trials to support key national research varieties and encourage global early synchronous research and international multi-center clinical trials [1][6] Group 2: Bond Market - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate bond market issuance and underwriting, prohibiting pre-agreed bond issuance rates and practices that distort market prices [1][6] - The association aims to strengthen the bond market's institutional framework and product innovation, encouraging automotive companies to increase bond financing and promote high-quality development in the automotive industry [1][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][6] - The import and export total in May was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports of 22,767 billion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports of 15,331 billion yuan (down 2.1%) [1][6] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In May, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines [1][6] - Second-tier cities also experienced a month-on-month price decrease of 0.2%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.3%, with the drop expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] Group 5: Corporate Announcements - Lakala announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to advance its international development strategy and accelerate the application of digital currency in cross-border scenarios [2][6] - Midea Group announced a share repurchase plan with a total amount not exceeding 10 billion yuan and not less than 5 billion yuan, with the repurchase period set for 12 months [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the challenges faced by international trade and economic order, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to stabilize the economy and maintain trade resilience [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The international economic and trade order is experiencing severe shocks, leading to increased fragmentation of supply chains and rising trade barriers [1] - These challenges are significantly impacting economic development across countries [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - In response to external shocks, the government is enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments, implementing more proactive fiscal policies, and adopting moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The economy has shown signs of recovery this year, particularly in foreign trade, which has maintained strong resilience [1] Group 3: Future Measures - The government is preparing to introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, while also researching new policy tools, including unconventional measures, to be deployed as needed based on changing circumstances [1] - There is confidence in the ability to sustain positive economic momentum [1]

Group 1 - In April, China's overall export growth slowed to 8.1%, with industrial export delivery value showing a nominal growth of 0.9%, down from 7.7% in March [1] - Manufacturing investment growth for January to April was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The real estate market showed signs of cooling, with some residents opting to wait, leading to declines in housing prices, sales, construction, and funding sources [1] Group 2 - The service sector demonstrated resilience against external shocks, with domestic travel during the Qingming Festival increasing by 6.3% in terms of visitor numbers and 6.7% in total spending [2] - The service production index in April grew by 6.0%, marking the second-highest monthly growth rate of the year [2] - Infrastructure investment from January to April increased by 5.8%, remaining steady compared to the first quarter, supported by easing local government debt issues and proactive fiscal policies [2] Group 3 - Despite external shocks, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [3] - A recent high-level economic meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [3] - Following the announcement, global risk aversion decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices and an increase in stock markets, with major institutions raising their growth forecasts for China's economy [3] Group 4 - Recent financial policies announced by regulatory authorities include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [4] - The government emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, aiming for enhanced economic resilience [4] - As these policies are implemented, the economic resilience of China is expected to further strengthen [4]

Core CPI and Economic Resilience - In April, China's core CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of the domestic economy despite external fluctuations [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a stable inflationary environment [1][2] CPI and Price Movements - The overall CPI in April saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a previous decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal factors and demand recovery, particularly in travel services [2][3] - Energy prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline [2][3] PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a consistent downward trend in industrial prices [3][4] - The gap between purchase prices and factory prices has narrowed, suggesting synchronized adjustments in upstream and downstream prices [4] Policy Measures and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is intensifying economic stabilization policies, including a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [5][6] - Upcoming holidays and strong tourism demand are expected to drive service prices up, leading to a moderate recovery in CPI [6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 51.5%, showing resilience against external pressures, while overall manufacturing production index falls to 49.8% [3][4] - New export orders have significantly declined by 4.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on export orders [3][4] Group 2 - The April PMI for imports decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 43.4%, and the purchasing index fell by 5.5 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating cautious spending by enterprises amid uncertainties [5] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, still above the critical point, but export orders dropped by 7.6 percentage points to 42.2% [6] - The construction sector continues to expand, with the civil engineering PMI rising by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating accelerated project progress [6][7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index for April is at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates overall expansion in production activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively, reflecting stable operations in manufacturing firms focused on domestic sales [7]

关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非典型转冷状态。一方面，居民部门动能大幅衰减，消费活动濒临收缩。另一方面，企 业部门表现依然稳健，与"劳工荒"共同支撑就业市场。特朗普与美联储矛盾持续激化。考虑到就业市场并未显 著转冷，叠加关税引发的再通胀担忧，以鲍威尔为首的多数美联储官员态度继续偏鹰，对降息持高度谨慎态 度。然而，特朗普团队希望美联储大幅降息以减轻财政付息压力，并激活私人投资，将美国经济从政府驱动转 向私人驱动模式，双方因而爆发激烈冲突，特朗普持续炮轰鲍威尔及美联储。 前瞻地看，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的概率极低，"鹰派"将继续主导美联储政策，以理事沃勒为首的少数鸽派亦难掌 握话语权。预计美联储年内将降息2次50bp，以对冲财政退坡及政策不确定性对企业投资的可能冲击。 境外市场在受到特朗普关税政策的巨大冲击后，本周波动略有降低。美债利率小幅回落至4.3%，美元、人民 币窄幅震荡，黄金继续上涨突破3,300美金。 美股本周下跌，主要因美国对中国芯片出口限制及美联储的态度低于预期。 ...

Focus - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for timely new incremental policies to address changing domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to strengthen domestic circulation and boost consumption [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance states that if the U.S. continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, China will not respond, highlighting the unilateral nature of U.S. actions [4][6] Major Meetings - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the U.S. inflation rate remains slightly high, and there is increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, leading to a cautious approach in future monetary policy adjustments [6][7] Major Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of financial asset management companies, enhancing regulatory effectiveness and risk management [7][8] - A joint opinion from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to support the high-quality development of the sports industry through diversified financial services and improved financing models [8][10] Major Events - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, issued a bond totaling 90 billion yen (approximately 4.6 billion RMB), marking its smallest yen transaction since entering the Japanese market in 2019 [10][11] Important Data - In March 2025, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, with a notable narrowing of the decline; the Producer Price Index (PPI) also fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.5% year-on-year [11][12] - The core CPI showed a significant recovery, rising by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating improvements in supply-demand structure and positive price changes [12]