国元证券近日发布有色金属行业双周报：近2周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业 指数强势上涨2.43%，跑赢沪深300指数涨幅1.46个百分点，在31个申万一级行业中排名第十 一。从细分领域看，能源金属（4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居 前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分别为-1.66%、-1.78%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告要点： 行情回顾：近2周申万有色金属指数上涨2.43% 近2周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业指数强势上涨2.43%，跑赢沪深300指数涨 幅1.46个百分点，在31个申万一级行业中排名第十一。从细分领域看，能源金属 （4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分 别为-1.66%、-1.78%。 金属价格：黄金价格续创新高，稀土价格有所下调 截至4月25日，COMEX黄金收盘价为3330.2美元/盎司，近2周上涨2.31%；COMEX银收 盘价为33.34美元/盎司，近2周上涨3.56%；LME铜现货结算价为9364美元/吨，近2周上涨 2.00%；LME铝现货结算 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 黄金价格续创新高，关注战略小金属投资机会 ——有色金属行业双周报 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 2.43% 近 2 周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业指数强势上涨 2.43%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数涨幅 1.46 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第十一。从细分领域看，能源金属（4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和 贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分别为-1.66%、 -1.78%。 金属价格：黄金价格续创新高，稀土价格有所下调 截至 4 月 25 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3330.2 美元/盎司，近 2 周上 涨 2.31%；COMEX 银收盘价为 33.34 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 3.56%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9364 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 2.00%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2412 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 5.56%；黑钨精 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 黄金价格续创新高，关注战略小金属投资机会 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 2.43% 近 2 周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业指数强势上涨 2.43%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数涨幅 1.46 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第十一。从细分领域看，能源金属（4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和 贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分别为-1.66%、 -1.78%。 金属价格：黄金价格续创新高，稀土价格有所下调 截至 4 月 25 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3330.2 美元/盎司，近 2 周上 涨 2.31%；COMEX 银收盘价为 33.34 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 3.56%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9364 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 2.00%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2412 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 5.56%；黑钨精 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 5.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 756.98 million yuan, down 65.72% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 1.79 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 78% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year [7] - The report indicates that the company's lithium salt sales in Q1 2025 were affected by maintenance, resulting in a 25% quarter-on-quarter decrease, but a 13% year-on-year increase. The annual sales forecast for 2025 is expected to reach 45,000 tons [7] - The copper smelting business reported a loss of 100 million yuan in Q1 2025, but the loss is expected to narrow in Q2 2025. The Tsumeb gallium business is anticipated to contribute to profit starting in Q4 2025 [7] - The report highlights a significant increase in cesium and rubidium sales in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 78%, contributing approximately 150 million yuan to net profit [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 600 million yuan and 1.21 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20% and an increase of 100% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 6.013 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 5.364 billion yuan in 2024, followed by an increase to 6.611 billion yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The net profit for 2023 was 2.208 billion yuan, expected to drop to 756.98 million yuan in 2024, and further to 603.68 million yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 3.06 yuan in 2023 to 1.05 yuan in 2024, and then to 0.84 yuan in 2025 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 28.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 20.87 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 27.49 for 2024, increasing to 34.47 in 2025, and then decreasing to 17.23 in 2026 [1][8] Operational Insights - The company reported a significant increase in operational cash flow in Q4 2024, but a negative cash flow of 800 million yuan in Q1 2025 [7] - The capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was significantly reduced to 40 million yuan, down 86% quarter-on-quarter [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 5.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 756.98 million yuan, down 65.72% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 1.79 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 78% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% but a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit for Q1 2025 is projected at 130 million yuan, down 47% quarter-on-quarter and 36% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to face challenges in copper smelting, with a loss of 100 million yuan in Q1 2025, but losses are anticipated to decrease in Q2 2025 [7] - The lithium salt sales in Q1 2025 were affected by maintenance, resulting in a 25% quarter-on-quarter decrease, but the annual sales are expected to reach 45,000 tons [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 6.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.26%. The net profit is expected to be 603.68 million yuan, a decrease of 20.25% year-on-year [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.47 [1][8] - The company’s operating cash flow in Q1 2025 was negative 800 million yuan, a significant decrease of 652% quarter-on-quarter [7]