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美股高估值已成新常态!华尔街分析师呼吁:是时候重塑市盈率认知
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 11:06
来源:智通财经网 近期美股估值飙升至高点引发了市场怀疑论者的不满,他们警告称,现在并非买入的时机。然而,仅仅 因为股票看起来"昂贵"而回避它们的策略并未经受住时间的考验,也削弱了依赖传统估值指标作为市场 择时工具的有效性。越来越多的华尔街分析师建议,或许是时候抛开对市盈率的旧有认知,特别是在过 去几十年平均估值倍数稳步上升的背景下。 例如,资深华尔街策略师Jim Paulsen最近的一份分析显示,本世纪以来平均估值区间大幅跃升,这表明 试图与过去进行比较是一种有缺陷的方法。根据他的分析,标普500指数过去30年的平均市盈率在20世 纪90年代初约为14,如今约为19.5。而在此之前,从1900年至90年代中期,该比例一直维持在13.5到 15.5之间的窄幅区间。Jim Paulsen表示:"股票估值和过去相比有些奇怪——也就是说,估值区间出现了 上升趋势。" 他列举了估值倍数上升的几个可能原因,以及为何更昂贵的股市可能只是新常态。首先,美国经济衰退 的发生频率从二战前的约42%下降到过去30年的仅10%左右。与此同时,美国从工业经济转型为科技和 服务型经济,市场本身的权重也更多倾向于享有更高估值的成长股。 此 ...
科创50,为何一直暴涨,市盈率180
集思录· 2025-09-28 15:11
根据最新报表及行情数据计算所得 查看指标说明 估值分析 ② | 11:32 ... | | 发言 2012-02-20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 科创20 | C | | | | 1476.79 4.94% | | | | 诊大盘 资金 社区 简况(F10) 基金 盘 | | | | | 最新指标 | | | | | 市盈率(TTM) | 181.97 | 市净率(MRQ) | 6.50 | | 市销率(TTM) | 7.34 | 市现率(TTM) | 58.61 | | 净资产收益率 | 3.55% | 资产负债率 | 45.80% | | 股息率 | 0.34% | 夏普比率 | 0.10% | | 年化收益率 | 0.25% | 最大回撤 | 60.08% | 市销率 市现率 市盈率 市净率 と 估值走势| = 估值通道 3年 ▼ ー 市盈率(TTM) 181.97 处于99.04分位 ① - 70分位值 78.22 - 30分位值 42.42 205 159 七星上将 少见多怪,没搞过传销吧,你不买,涨到你买为止,不过最终的结局肯定一地鸡毛。当然,传销这玩意也 ...
每日钉一下(市盈率和市净率百分位,该看哪个?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-28 13:35
那么,基金投顾有哪些优势? 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 基金投顾,顾名思义,就是基金的投资顾问。 很多行业都有顾问,特别是一些专业性很强的行业。 例如, 基金投资也是如此。 基金投顾的诞生,正是为了解决基金行业存在的"基金赚钱,基民不赚钱"的问题。 是如何通过"投"和"顾",帮助投资者获得好收益的呢? 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程,介绍了基金投顾的方方面面。 想要获取这个课程,可以添加下方「课程小助手」,回复「 基金投顾 」领取哦~ 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮您快速搞懂课程脉络,学习更高效。 • 看病吃药,需要医生,医生就是顾问; • 有法律问题,需要律师,律师也是顾问。 套会投顾是什么? 载什么伺用? 长按添加@课程小助手,回复「基金投顾」 免费领取《螺丝钉基金投顾入门课》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮你快速了解基金投顾 基金有风险,投资需谨 #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 市盈率和市净率百分位,该看 哪个? 有朋友问,现在看有的指数,市盈率的百 分位比较高,市净率的百分位比较低,该 看哪个呢? und 市盈率=市值/盈利。 市盈率的数值,会受到盈利波动的影响。 比如,当盈利大跌时,导致市盈率被动 ...
刘纪鹏:资本市场在等待年轻人,但“一定要控制好风险的比例”
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-25 09:54
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, indicating that it remains a value investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new stock accounts is increasing, with more "post-00s" and "post-10s" entering the market, suggesting a shift towards a younger investor base [1] - The A-share market is compared to the US market, where the US stock market recently reached a historical high of 46,000 points, while the A-share market's recent high was only about 3,899 points, highlighting a significant gap [2] - China's GDP growth rate is significantly higher than that of the US, which theoretically should allow for a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the A-share market [2] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 15 times, while the overall market P/E ratio is around 30 times, including high-valuation sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [2] - The overall P/E ratio of the US stock market exceeds 30 times, particularly for high-performing stocks, indicating that A-shares could be undervalued [2] - Given China's economic growth potential, a P/E ratio below 40 times for A-shares is considered reasonable, with further upward potential [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The younger generation is encouraged to explore the capital market as a means to increase property income, but they must also be cautious of financial risks [2][3] - Historical experiences of successful investors often include significant risks, emphasizing the importance of risk management in capital market investments [2][3]
刘纪鹏:A股是巨大的“价值洼地” 市盈率40倍以内都合理,但向年轻投资者发出重要警示
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-25 09:54
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, indicating that it remains a value lowland for investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of new accounts is increasing, with more "post-00s" and "post-10s" entering the stock market, reflecting a shift towards a younger investor base [1] - The A-share market is compared to the US market, where the US stock market recently reached a historical high of 46,000 points, while the A-share market's recent high was only about 3,899 points, highlighting a significant gap [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Valuation - China's GDP growth rate is significantly higher than that of the US, suggesting that the A-share market should theoretically enjoy a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [2] - The current P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 15 times, while the overall market P/E ratio is around 30 times, indicating that A-shares are undervalued compared to US stocks, which have an overall P/E ratio exceeding 30 times [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The potential for the A-share market is substantial, with a reasonable P/E ratio of up to 40 times, considering China's economic growth [2] - Young investors are encouraged to participate in the capital market as it is seen as a crucial platform for increasing property income, but they must also be cautious of financial risks [2][3]
A Look Into Kennametal Inc's Price Over Earnings - Kennametal (NYSE:KMT)
Benzinga· 2025-09-24 22:00
Group 1 - Kennametal has a lower P/E ratio compared to the aggregate P/E of 38.21 in the Machinery industry, suggesting potential undervaluation or lower expected performance [5] - A lower P/E ratio may indicate that shareholders do not anticipate future growth, but it could also mean the company is undervalued [7] - The P/E ratio should not be used in isolation; other factors such as industry trends and business cycles also influence stock prices [7] Group 2 - The P/E ratio is a useful metric for assessing a company's market performance against historical earnings and industry standards [4] - Investors are encouraged to use the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics and qualitative analysis for informed investment decisions [7]
耐克:一个需要时间复苏的伟大品牌
美股研究社· 2025-09-24 11:23
Core Viewpoint - Nike is facing significant revenue challenges due to lower-than-expected demand and tariffs, with a high expected P/E ratio of approximately 43 times, which is substantially above industry and S&P 500 averages, indicating a need for management to reverse the current situation to achieve substantial growth [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - For Q4 of FY2025, Nike reported revenue of $11.1 billion, a year-over-year decline of 11% on a currency-neutral basis, with direct sales down 14% to approximately $4.4 billion and wholesale revenue down 9% to $6.4 billion [2][4]. - The company's FY2025 revenue was approximately $46.3 billion, a 10% decrease compared to FY2024, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14, down about 86% year-over-year [4][9]. - Operating cash flow decreased by approximately 50%, significantly worse than the industry average decline of about 1% [16]. Valuation and Market Position - Nike's expected P/E ratio is 42.88, which is notably higher than the industry average and S&P 500, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a premium for potential recovery, but this poses risks if growth does not materialize [10][13]. - The company's enterprise value multiples (EV/Sales) are 2.32 and 2.28, indicating overvaluation compared to industry medians of 1.34 and 0.99 [13]. Shareholder Returns - Nike has continued its shareholder-friendly strategy by increasing dividends and implementing a stock buyback program, repurchasing approximately 3.2 million shares for about $202 million in the last quarter [5][18]. - The company has a dividend yield of 2.26% and a history of 35 consecutive years of dividend payments, although its payout ratio is high at 70%, suggesting limited room for future dividend growth [18][19]. Operational Challenges - The company is experiencing pressure on profit margins due to discounts and slowing demand, with a reported profit margin of 40.3% in Q4, down from previous levels [4][9]. - Nike's EBITDA decreased nearly 41% year-over-year, contrasting sharply with the industry median growth of 2%, highlighting significant operational challenges [15]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect Nike's Q1 FY2026 revenue to be around $10.97 billion, a decline of approximately 5% year-over-year, with EPS projected at $0.27, indicating a nearly 61% drop [9][10]. - The upcoming earnings report is critical for assessing whether there will be any signs of demand recovery or further revenue contraction, which could significantly impact investor sentiment [10][21].
P/E Ratio Insights for Lithia Motors - Lithia Motors (NYSE:LAD)
Benzinga· 2025-09-23 18:00
Group 1 - Lithia Motors Inc. stock is currently trading at $340.80, reflecting a 2.36% increase in the current session, a 2.96% increase over the past month, and a 10.16% increase over the past year, indicating optimism among long-term shareholders [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a critical metric for long-term shareholders to evaluate the company's market performance against historical earnings and industry standards [5] - Lithia Motors has a lower P/E ratio compared to the aggregate P/E of 25.29 for the Specialty Retail industry, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued or that shareholders do not expect it to perform better than its peers [6] Group 2 - A lower P/E ratio can indicate undervaluation but may also suggest a lack of expected future growth from shareholders, highlighting the limitations of using P/E in isolation [9] - Investors are encouraged to consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics and qualitative analyses to make informed investment decisions [9]
A Look Into Arista Networks Inc's Price Over Earnings - Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET)
Benzinga· 2025-09-23 17:00
Group 1 - Arista Networks Inc. stock price is currently at $145.00, reflecting a 0.28% decrease in the current market session, but has increased by 8.28% over the past month and 49.81% over the past year [1] - The company's P/E ratio stands at 57.02, which is lower than the aggregate P/E ratio of 262.23 in the Communications Equipment industry, suggesting potential undervaluation or weaker future performance expectations compared to industry peers [6] - A lower P/E ratio may indicate that shareholders do not expect the stock to perform better in the future or that the company is undervalued [5][6] Group 2 - The P/E ratio is a valuable tool for evaluating market performance, but it should be used cautiously as it can indicate both undervaluation and weak growth prospects [9] - Investors should consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial ratios, industry trends, and qualitative factors for a comprehensive analysis of a company's financial health [9]
永鼎股份:公司市盈率高于行业市盈率水平 股票价格短期涨幅较大
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yongding Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of 20% over three consecutive trading days, prompting a warning to investors about trading risks [1] Company Summary - Yongding Co., Ltd. announced that its stock price increased by 20% over the trading days of September 19, 22, and 23, 2025 [1] - The trading volumes on September 22 and 23 were notably high, with turnover rates of 13.23% and 14.92%, respectively, exceeding the company's usual turnover rates [1] - As of September 22, 2025, the company's static and rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios were 261.86 and 46.13, respectively [1] - The industry average static and rolling P/E ratios for the "Electrical Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing" sector were significantly lower at 26.02 and 24.14, indicating that Yongding's P/E ratios are substantially higher than the industry average [1] Industry Summary - The "Electrical Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing" industry has a static P/E ratio of 26.02 and a rolling P/E ratio of 24.14, which are considerably lower than those of Yongding Co., Ltd. [1]