来源：金融界 责任编辑：韦子蓉 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：韦子蓉 来源：金融界 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

2025.12. 26 本文字数：1717，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 在即将到来的2026年，一二级市场将呈现怎样的格局？PE/VC能否借IPO回暖、并购升温而迎 来"退出盛宴"？A股在2025年的慢牛行情又是否将继续演绎？年尾，以上问题成为市场的重要关 切。 "本轮市场行情上涨了一年多，由于上市公司业绩大幅提升，目前大盘整体市盈率不算太高，（市 场）仍然有一定的上涨空间。"中央财经大学金融学院教授贺强表示。 在他看来，"十五五"期间，上市公司规范发展是关键。"可以说上市公司良性发展、业绩不断提升， 是'十五五'时期建立健全功能完善的资本市场的首要条件。"他说。 结合市场上涨动力，贺强认为，如果股市上涨靠炒作来推动，在市场不断上涨过程中，上市公司业绩 却持续下滑，那么，市场点位被推到一定高度后，市盈率将迅速放大，市场风险也会大幅增加。 在他看来，在上述情况下，即市场缺乏盈利支撑，完全靠炒作、堆砌资金，牛市行情不可能走得太 长、太远。 反之，如果股市的上涨有上市公司业绩提供支撑，情况就完全不同。贺强提到，如果指数不断上涨， 上市公司业绩也能够不断提升，二者就会同向而行。 他以美国股市举例，该 ...

在即将到来的2026年，一二级市场将呈现怎样的格局？PE/VC能否借IPO回暖、并购升温而迎来"退出盛 宴"？A股在2025年的慢牛行情又是否将继续演绎？年尾，以上问题成为市场的重要关切。 "本轮市场行情上涨了一年多，由于上市公司业绩大幅提升，目前大盘整体市盈率不算太高，（市场） 仍然有一定的上涨空间。"中央财经大学金融学院教授贺强表示。 在12月26日举办的启航·2025金融年会上，贺强提到，市场若要实现进一步上涨，上市公司市值要继续 增加，公司业绩要提供支撑。同时，中长期资金要持续入市。这是股市走出长牛、慢牛的两大关键因 素。 对于一级市场，清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩表示，创投市场的发展环境应更加包容，国资LP要 持续优化考核机制、评价体系，例如拉长项目考核周期，对其进行"打包"评估等。 股市长牛需要两大关键因素 贺强提到，"十五五"规划建议中提及资本市场发展，为市场带来了良好的政策预期。在此背景下，他认 为，股市要走出长牛行情，有两大关键条件：一是上市公司业绩持续增长，二是源源不断的中长期资金 入市。 在他看来，"十五五"期间，上市公司规范发展是关键。"可以说上市公司良性发展、业绩不断提升， 是'十 ...

贺强举例，近期美国高科技股出现较大幅度回调，"七仙女"平均市盈率超过了23倍，美国大机构认为炒得过高了，因此出现了回调。不过，回调之后又继续 拉升，事实上"七仙女"当中，只有特斯拉一家市盈率超100倍，其他的都不太高。 中央财经大学金融学院教授、证券期货研究所名誉所长贺强 贺强分析称，如果股市上涨是靠炒作推动，在股市不断上涨过程中，上市公司业绩却在不断下滑，炒到一定点位，市盈率必然迅速放大，股市风险会大幅增 加。"涨到一定点位，它必然就要暴跌。"贺强指出，如果股市没有盈利支撑，完全靠炒作、堆砌资金，牛市行情不可能走得太长、太远。 "如果股市的上涨有上市公司业绩的支撑，情况就完全不同。"贺强分析，随着股票指数不断上涨，上市公司业绩也能够不断提升，二者同向上涨、同向而 行，甭管涨到哪，市盈率永远不会太高。他以美国股市举例，这一轮涨了十几年，翻了几倍，很早就有专家说美国股市涨太高了，风险太大了，应该暴跌、 回调了，可是最多只有小回调以后，又继续拉高、继续上涨。"我们要想五年走出长牛、慢牛，我们跟美国股市一样，必须要有上市公司业绩的支撑才 行。"贺强称。 贺强指出，美股从2009年到2025年，黄金十六年，2009年 ...

Core Insights - As of October 31, 2025, companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported a total operating revenue of 37.58 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The net profit reached 3.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.65 trillion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter, net profit and net profit after deducting non-recurring items grew by 11.4% and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively, significantly higher than the growth rates in the second quarter [1] Financial Performance - The cumulative cash dividends from 501 companies that announced dividend plans exceeded 600 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1] - The total operating revenue of 588 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1.01 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] - The median R&D intensity of companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was 12.4%, indicating significant advancements in multiple fields [1] Growth of Unprofitable Companies - Among the 33 unprofitable companies that disclosed their third-quarter reports, there was a notable revenue growth of 35.1% while reducing losses by 45.4% year-on-year [1] - These companies continued to increase their R&D investments, with a median R&D intensity of 44.3% [1]

Core Insights - As of October 31, 2025, companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have completed the disclosure of their Q3 reports for 2025, showing stable growth in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters reached 37.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Net profit amounted to 3.79 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [1] - After excluding non-recurring items, the net profit was 3.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] Quarterly Analysis - In Q3, net profit and net profit after excluding non-recurring items grew by 11.4% and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The growth rates for Q3 were higher than those in Q2 by 10.8 percentage points and 14.3 percentage points, respectively [1] - Quarter-on-quarter, net profit and net profit after excluding non-recurring items increased by 16.9% and 19.2%, respectively [1] Dividend Trends - A total of 501 companies have announced dividend plans in their mid-year and Q3 reports, with total cash dividends exceeding 600 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1]

Core Insights - A-share companies are showing significant profit growth in the third quarter, with 647 out of 1083 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit, representing approximately 59.74% [1] - Industries such as communication equipment, semiconductors, chemicals, and industrial metals are experiencing substantial performance recovery [1] - A total of 51 A-share companies have announced dividend plans for the third quarter of 2025, with 35 companies proposing cash dividends exceeding 1 yuan per 10 shares [2] Company Performance Highlights - Jingrui Electric Materials reported a revenue of approximately 1.187 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.92%, and a net profit of about 128 million yuan, up 19202.65% [1] - Huawu Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of approximately 994 million yuan, a 16.55% increase, and a net profit of about 41.21 million yuan, up 70.84% for the first three quarters [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported a revenue of approximately 145.485 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99%, but a net profit of about 14.28 billion yuan, an increase of 72.61%, surpassing last year's total net profit [2] - China Shenhua's revenue was 213.151 billion yuan, down 16.6%, with a net profit of 39.052 billion yuan, down 10% due to decreased coal sales and electricity sales [2] Dividend Announcements - Guoguang Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 3.19 million yuan [3] - Wireless Media announced a cash dividend of 3.75 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 150 million yuan, despite a revenue decline of 2.2% [3] - Baolidi plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 35.7573 million yuan, with a revenue increase of 4.57% [3] Earnings Forecasts - Among 114 companies that released earnings forecasts, 91 are expected to report positive results, indicating a pre-joy ratio of approximately 79.82% [4] - Companies like Luxshare Precision, China Shipbuilding, and Shandong Gold are expected to have significant net profit increases, with many companies projecting net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][5] - 85 companies anticipate a net profit increase of over 10%, with 67 expecting over 50%, and 29 projecting over 100% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant performance in the third quarter, with a notable percentage of companies reporting substantial profit growth and dividend distributions [1][10]. Group 1: Profit Growth - As of October 22, 370 A-share companies have disclosed their third-quarter reports, with 233 companies achieving year-on-year net profit growth, accounting for approximately 62.97% [1]. - Among the companies, 53 reported a net profit increase exceeding 100%, while 95 companies had growth over 50% [3][11]. - Notable performers include Qianfang Technology and Hengdian Film & TV, both of which reported net profit growth exceeding 1000% [4][11]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Figures - Qianfang Technology reported approximately 5.256 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 2.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of about 189 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1098.97% [4]. - Hengdian Film & TV achieved approximately 1.895 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 17.28%, with a net profit of around 206 million yuan, marking a growth of 1084.8% [4]. Group 3: Dividend Distribution - A total of 23 A-share companies have announced their third-quarter dividend plans, with notable distributions from Huayan Precision Machinery, Sankeshu, Action Education, and Link Technology [6][7]. - Action Education plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share, totaling approximately 59.63 million yuan, which represents 71.49% of its net profit for the third quarter [7]. - Siling Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share and also intends to increase its share capital by 4.5 shares for every 10 shares held [8]. Group 4: Industry Performance - The companies with significant performance recovery are primarily concentrated in the telecommunications equipment, semiconductor, chemical, and industrial metals sectors [5]. Group 5: Earnings Forecast - As of now, 146 A-share companies have released their earnings forecasts for the third quarter, with 121 companies indicating positive expectations, resulting in a pre-joy ratio of approximately 82.88% [10]. - Among these, 97 companies expect a net profit lower limit exceeding 100 million yuan, with 61 companies expecting over 300 million yuan [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on October 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above the 3900-point mark, driven by positive earnings reports from the first batch of listed companies for Q3 2025, where 11 out of 12 companies reported year-on-year profit growth [2] Group 1: Earnings Reports - Among the 12 companies that released Q3 earnings, 11 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, while 8 saw revenue growth [2] - Dao's Technology led with an expected net profit growth of 182.45%, followed by Iole Home with a 70.92% increase [2] - As of October 15, 124 A-share companies had released Q3 earnings forecasts, with 99 expecting profit growth and 9 anticipating declines [2][7] Group 2: Major Companies - The top five companies by net profit size include New China Life Insurance, Luxshare Precision, Salt Lake Industry, Shandong Gold, and Yuexiu Capital, with New China Life expected to report a net profit of between 29.986 billion and 34.122 billion yuan [3] - Shandong Gold is projected to have a net profit growth of 83.9% to 98.5%, attributed to rising gold prices [3] - Yuexiu Capital anticipates a net profit increase of 70% to 80%, benefiting from a stable capital market and growth in its renewable energy business [3] Group 3: Loss Forecasts - Chongqing Steel and Andar Technology are expected to report net losses exceeding 200 million yuan, but both companies are projected to achieve significant year-on-year reductions in losses [4] - Chongqing Steel forecasts a net profit growth of 82.96% to 84.44%, while Andar Technology expects a growth of 49.89% to 61.46% [4] Group 4: High Growth Companies - Among the 124 companies that released earnings forecasts, 46 are expected to have net profit growth exceeding 100%, representing 37% of the total and 46% of those predicting profit increases [7] - Notably, companies like Xianda Co., Chuangjiang New Materials, and Yinglian Co. are projected to have extraordinary growth rates, with Xianda Co. expecting a net profit increase of 2807% to 3211% [5][6]

Core Insights - Guizhou listed companies achieved a total operating revenue of 172.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.03% and a 52.29% increase compared to the same period in 2021 [1] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders reached 50.26 billion yuan, up 5.37% year-on-year and 60.45% compared to 2021 [1] - Seven companies announced interim dividend plans, with a total dividend scale of 591 million yuan, nearly quadrupling from the previous year [1] Revenue Performance - Among Guizhou listed companies, 18 firms reported revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, and 6 companies surpassed 5 billion yuan, with Kweichow Moutai leading at 89.39 billion yuan [2] - 19 companies experienced year-on-year revenue growth, with 8 companies achieving double-digit growth; Andar Technology led with a 126.80% growth rate [2] - Six companies maintained positive revenue growth over the past five years, with Chuanheng Co. leading at a compound annual growth rate of 35.20% [2] Profitability - A total of 25 companies reported profits, accounting for 71.43% of the sample, with Kweichow Moutai at 45.40 billion yuan and Guiyang Bank at 2.47 billion yuan [2] - Eleven companies showed year-on-year profit growth in the first half of 2025, with two companies exceeding 100% growth [2] - 21 companies have maintained profitability for five consecutive years, with Walton Technology and Guizhou Aviation achieving over 10% profit growth in the last three years [2] International Expansion - Thirteen companies disclosed overseas business revenue, totaling 18.29 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% year-on-year increase, with both the number of participating companies and revenue reaching historical highs [3] - Zhongwei Co. led with 10.78 billion yuan in overseas revenue, ranking seventh among listed companies in the western region [3] - Eight listed companies in Guizhou engaged in share buybacks from January to August, investing a total of 7.14 billion yuan, ranking sixth nationally and first in the western region [3]