Core Viewpoint - PVC market is experiencing a rebound due to commodity sentiment but faces significant downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and supply pressures [1][5][7] Supply Pressure - In 2025, PVC will face the largest capacity expansion pressure in a decade, with plans to launch 9 new production units totaling nearly 2.5 million tons, primarily between June and August [2] - PVC operating rates are expected to rebound as maintenance season ends, with a significant increase in operating rates anticipated due to reduced planned maintenance [2] Demand Weakness - The demand for PVC is expected to remain weak, particularly due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, which is a major consumer of PVC [5] - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment in China was 46,658 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20% and completed area down 14.8% [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market is saturated, making exports a critical outlet, with over 2.6 million tons expected to be exported in 2024, half of which will go to India [6] - However, the implementation of India's BIS certification and increasing global trade tensions may further complicate export opportunities, with a significant drop in exports observed in June [6] Summary - The current fundamentals for PVC are weak, with potential for further downward pressure. However, if policies such as production limits are introduced, there may be a gradual reversal of the current weak pricing trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing significant challenges due to increased trade friction, weak demand, and a supply-demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and potential risks of further declines in the future [1][8]. Supply and Production - The spring maintenance has led to a noticeable increase in PVC maintenance, resulting in a significant drop in operating rates, which are now below 80%, with weekly production around 450,000 tons [4]. - The production pressure is temporarily alleviated due to ongoing maintenance plans, which are expected to keep operating rates at low levels [4]. Cost and Profitability - The PVC supply-demand imbalance is evident, with prices near a 10-year low, causing substantial profit compression for producers, leading to losses becoming the norm [5]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises that produce PVC are facing losses, particularly in the external procurement of calcium carbide, which is around 600 yuan/ton [5]. - The profitability of PVC and caustic soda has recently turned negative, indicating that cost support may gradually become more apparent [5]. Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has become a norm for PVC, with 80% of its downstream demand linked to the real estate sector, which is currently in a weak cycle [6]. - Despite recent stimulus policies aimed at the real estate market, the impact on PVC demand remains limited, with new construction data still showing weakness [6]. Export Trends - In March, China exported 360,000 tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with cumulative exports from January to March reaching 970,000 tons, up 56% year-on-year [7]. - However, increasing trade friction and higher import/export tariffs are expected to complicate future PVC exports, potentially diminishing the positive impact of exports on domestic supply-demand balance [7].