7月份商品普遍大涨，PVC也跟随商品情绪共振反弹，基本摆脱前期底部，甚至补上贸易摩擦导致的向下 跳空缺口。不过，近期商品市场情绪回落，PVC再次下跌，并且下半年仍有较多潜在利空，上行阻力较 大。 供应压力集中爆发 2025年，PVC迎来十年来产能扩张压力最大的一年，全年计划投产9套装置，涉及产能近250万吨，其中超 过一半装置集中在6—8月份投产。除了新装置投产之外，PVC开工率也将明显反弹。进入三季度，PVC检 修季基本结束，近期开工率已经出现反弹迹象，后期计划内检修明显减少，预计开工率逐渐提高。在产能 基数大幅增加背景下，PVC开工率也将明显反弹，届时供应压力集中爆发。 弱需求成为常态 近几年PVC国内市场严重饱和，出口成为为数不多的亮点，出口增加极大地缓解了国内供需矛盾。2024 年，国内PVC出口超过260万吨，其中近一半出口至印度。不过，下半年印度BIS认证有望落地，国内尚无 PVC企业达标，加之全球贸易摩擦加剧，进一步加大了国内PVC的出口难度。数据显示，6月份国内PVC 出口大幅下降，环比降幅超过25%。后期若印度BIS认证落地，出口量或进一步减少。 小结 目前PVC基本面欠佳，后期甚至面临回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of Debang Lighting, indicating a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, while also noting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio for 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 347 million yuan, down 7.53% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 998 million yuan, a decline of 8.09%, and a net profit of 62 million yuan, down 17.11% [2]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2024 increased significantly to 99.65%, compared to 50%, 47%, and 42% in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [2]. Export and Market Challenges - The lighting business faces tariff risks, with the global lighting market maturing. In 2024, China's lighting industry export total is expected to be approximately 56.1 billion USD, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [2]. - Traditional lighting business revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.785 billion yuan, down 6.35%, with general lighting and lighting engineering construction revenues declining by 4.95% and 36.48% respectively [2]. Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, impacting the gross margin of the vehicle lighting business. In 2024, the company’s vehicle lighting segment revenue was 596 million yuan, a decrease of 4.43%, with a gross margin of 15.8%, down 3.45 percentage points [3]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China saw significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 19.21%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points, primarily due to declines in the gross margins of lighting engineering and vehicle lighting businesses [4]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing slight increases [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the uncertainties in exports and competitive pressures in the industry, the company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 315 million, 328 million, and 347 million yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment of the EPS forecast [4].