7 狗 在 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITCE贸期货 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | | 工不可为农/求干印尼方;十个尼日后了工不可为扣不定去工同公庄的坑外。 | | --- | --- | | | 策略: 纸浆当前受"强供给"和"弱需求"交易逻辑拉扯，近期宏观情绪偏强，05合约预计在5400-5700元/吨区间偏 | | 强震荡。 | | | | 在 去 去 再放音中仍局却被广公开了得到了，回数据的交流的值。但不让人情感的距离处于整个时间。不在看内取个发展。本代音内容就没发出了，们 务状况或需要、投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定就况，据此投资。责任自负。本报告仅同特定客户推进，未经国贸期货报政许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三 | | H | 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | 世界500强投资企业 | | | 国贸期货有限公司 | | | 流的衍生品综合服务商 | 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 服 热 转 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

来源：中国能源网 以华北市场为例，2025年华北LLDPE主流6100-9000元/吨，低点出现在12月23日，高点在1月1日，华北 LDPE普通膜料主流7800-10550元/吨，低点出现在12月26日，高点在1月1日，HDPE以低熔指注塑为 例，全年价格6550-7950元/吨，低点出现在12月24日，高点在6月末。 2025年国内PE市场持续下行，连刷新低点，其中LLDPE跌幅最大，年终较年初价格跌29.76%，其次是 LDPE，年终较年初跌22.35%，HDPE跌幅相对较小，年终较年初跌13.45%，聚乙烯综合跌幅20.28%。 期间"高供应、弱需求、高库存"矛盾深刻，市场信心严重缺失，LLDPE期货持续疲软，现货市场全年成 交低迷，导致国内上游生产企业纷纷降价促进成交，以期稳定市场份额，减缓资金压力。2025年中美贸 易关系恶化导致需求雪上加霜，全年需求低迷，参与操守以规避风险为主。市场可分为两个阶段，一， 上半年行情下行但伴随小幅反弹。上半年国内PE产能继续扩张，加上2024年四季度扩张产能产量不断 释放，同时受中美贸易摩擦等因素影响，需求提升远不及预期，市场在供需矛盾加大下持续下行。5月 12日 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 成本：12 月 17 日布油主力收盘 55.1 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.9 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5285 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季承压震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.37%，报 6404 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.96%，报 5388 元/吨。 （2）观点 纯苯：短期来看，国内纯苯到港高峰阶段性结束，港口库存增速明显放 缓，但库存 ...

浮法玻璃周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 浮法玻璃行情分析 ➢ 现货概况：本周浮法玻璃现货价格持续阴跌，区域分化明显。截至2025年11月20日，全国5mm浮法玻璃均价为1,106元/吨，周内下跌45元/吨，跌幅约3.9%。 沙河、湖北等主要产区价格走弱，产销率偏低，部分企业为去库采取"以价换量"策略。期货价格维持下跌趋势，主力合约逼近历史低位，市场情绪偏弱。供需基 本面承压，库存高位运行，行业利润持续收窄。本周玻璃期货总成交量显著放大，11月20日单日成交量达192.29万手，为近期峰值，显示市场交投活跃但方向 分歧加剧。持仓量维持高位，截至11月21日为194.37万手，反映空头力量持续积累。 ➢ 供给端：周内本溪一600吨/日产线冷修，国内在产日产量降至15.81万吨。此为本周唯一明确的产能退出，但整体供给仍处高位，未形成系统性减产。全国 周度产量111.02万吨，环比-0.34%，同比+0.08%。 ➢ 需求端：需求偏弱难改，截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities and financial products presenting different trends. Commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Financial products are influenced by macro - economic data and policy orientations. - Investors should adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of different products, including holding options, going long or short, and paying attention to price resistance levels and inventory changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fluctuated. The SC09 contract was relatively weak, falling 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and oil prices further declined. Continue to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money crude oil options [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales monthly rate announced on Friday was in line with expectations, and precious metals had limited fluctuations. After the positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend, the adjustment of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a September interest rate cut. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is advisable to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum declined slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up is stable, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The SHFE zinc has priced in the weak reality and expectations. The short - term directional signal is weak, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The lead price has limited downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions based on 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the end - of - life call option opportunities [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The market is expected to return to fundamentals. Pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices rebounded last Friday. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metal Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [7]. - **Energy - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and both LU and FU are under pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures fluctuated narrowly. The 8 - month production plan decreased, and the cost - side weakness puts pressure on BU [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, and the price is stabilizing. The futures are in a low - level oscillation [24]. - **Chemical Products** - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is loose. The market may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" demand is approaching [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is falling, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The futures are in a consolidation pattern. The supply increases, and the demand lacks upward drive [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene sales are weak, polyethylene production enterprises are inclined to raise prices, and polypropylene is under supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded and then declined. Pay attention to the oil price direction and demand recovery [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at 4400 yuan/ton. The short - term trend is low - level oscillation [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [33]. - **Glass**: The industry may accumulate inventory. Consider a low - long strategy near the cost [34]. - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for RU and a bullish strategy for NR and BR [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the short - term news is disturbing. The long - term supply pressure exists [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans & Bean Meal**: The USDA August report is bullish for US soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected, and bean meal is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Pay attention to the crop inspection results of US soybeans and policy changes in Indonesia. Increase the expected price fluctuation range [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed weather impact is small. The mid - term strategy is to be bullish, and the short - term trend is expected to be stable and oscillatory [39]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The recent auctions may drag down the price. Pay attention to the price difference with imported soybeans [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The US corn price is falling, and the domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The spot price may decline, and the futures can be hedged at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is rising seasonally. The futures still face over - capacity pressure [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [44]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving. Pay attention to whether the futures price can stop falling and stabilize [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp is oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose, and the policy focus is shifting to the structure. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve may steepen in the future [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].

Core Viewpoint - PVC market is experiencing a rebound due to commodity sentiment but faces significant downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and supply pressures [1][5][7] Supply Pressure - In 2025, PVC will face the largest capacity expansion pressure in a decade, with plans to launch 9 new production units totaling nearly 2.5 million tons, primarily between June and August [2] - PVC operating rates are expected to rebound as maintenance season ends, with a significant increase in operating rates anticipated due to reduced planned maintenance [2] Demand Weakness - The demand for PVC is expected to remain weak, particularly due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, which is a major consumer of PVC [5] - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment in China was 46,658 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20% and completed area down 14.8% [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market is saturated, making exports a critical outlet, with over 2.6 million tons expected to be exported in 2024, half of which will go to India [6] - However, the implementation of India's BIS certification and increasing global trade tensions may further complicate export opportunities, with a significant drop in exports observed in June [6] Summary - The current fundamentals for PVC are weak, with potential for further downward pressure. However, if policies such as production limits are introduced, there may be a gradual reversal of the current weak pricing trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing significant challenges due to increased trade friction, weak demand, and a supply-demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and potential risks of further declines in the future [1][8]. Supply and Production - The spring maintenance has led to a noticeable increase in PVC maintenance, resulting in a significant drop in operating rates, which are now below 80%, with weekly production around 450,000 tons [4]. - The production pressure is temporarily alleviated due to ongoing maintenance plans, which are expected to keep operating rates at low levels [4]. Cost and Profitability - The PVC supply-demand imbalance is evident, with prices near a 10-year low, causing substantial profit compression for producers, leading to losses becoming the norm [5]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises that produce PVC are facing losses, particularly in the external procurement of calcium carbide, which is around 600 yuan/ton [5]. - The profitability of PVC and caustic soda has recently turned negative, indicating that cost support may gradually become more apparent [5]. Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has become a norm for PVC, with 80% of its downstream demand linked to the real estate sector, which is currently in a weak cycle [6]. - Despite recent stimulus policies aimed at the real estate market, the impact on PVC demand remains limited, with new construction data still showing weakness [6]. Export Trends - In March, China exported 360,000 tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with cumulative exports from January to March reaching 970,000 tons, up 56% year-on-year [7]. - However, increasing trade friction and higher import/export tariffs are expected to complicate future PVC exports, potentially diminishing the positive impact of exports on domestic supply-demand balance [7].