Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities and financial products presenting different trends. Commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Financial products are influenced by macro - economic data and policy orientations. - Investors should adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of different products, including holding options, going long or short, and paying attention to price resistance levels and inventory changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fluctuated. The SC09 contract was relatively weak, falling 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and oil prices further declined. Continue to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money crude oil options [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales monthly rate announced on Friday was in line with expectations, and precious metals had limited fluctuations. After the positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend, the adjustment of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a September interest rate cut. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is advisable to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum declined slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up is stable, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The SHFE zinc has priced in the weak reality and expectations. The short - term directional signal is weak, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The lead price has limited downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions based on 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the end - of - life call option opportunities [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The market is expected to return to fundamentals. Pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices rebounded last Friday. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metal Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [7]. - **Energy - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and both LU and FU are under pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures fluctuated narrowly. The 8 - month production plan decreased, and the cost - side weakness puts pressure on BU [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, and the price is stabilizing. The futures are in a low - level oscillation [24]. - **Chemical Products** - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is loose. The market may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" demand is approaching [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is falling, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The futures are in a consolidation pattern. The supply increases, and the demand lacks upward drive [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene sales are weak, polyethylene production enterprises are inclined to raise prices, and polypropylene is under supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded and then declined. Pay attention to the oil price direction and demand recovery [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at 4400 yuan/ton. The short - term trend is low - level oscillation [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [33]. - **Glass**: The industry may accumulate inventory. Consider a low - long strategy near the cost [34]. - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for RU and a bullish strategy for NR and BR [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the short - term news is disturbing. The long - term supply pressure exists [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans & Bean Meal**: The USDA August report is bullish for US soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected, and bean meal is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Pay attention to the crop inspection results of US soybeans and policy changes in Indonesia. Increase the expected price fluctuation range [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed weather impact is small. The mid - term strategy is to be bullish, and the short - term trend is expected to be stable and oscillatory [39]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The recent auctions may drag down the price. Pay attention to the price difference with imported soybeans [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The US corn price is falling, and the domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The spot price may decline, and the futures can be hedged at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is rising seasonally. The futures still face over - capacity pressure [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [44]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving. Pay attention to whether the futures price can stop falling and stabilize [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp is oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose, and the policy focus is shifting to the structure. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve may steepen in the future [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].

Core Viewpoint - PVC market is experiencing a rebound due to commodity sentiment but faces significant downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and supply pressures [1][5][7] Supply Pressure - In 2025, PVC will face the largest capacity expansion pressure in a decade, with plans to launch 9 new production units totaling nearly 2.5 million tons, primarily between June and August [2] - PVC operating rates are expected to rebound as maintenance season ends, with a significant increase in operating rates anticipated due to reduced planned maintenance [2] Demand Weakness - The demand for PVC is expected to remain weak, particularly due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, which is a major consumer of PVC [5] - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment in China was 46,658 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20% and completed area down 14.8% [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market is saturated, making exports a critical outlet, with over 2.6 million tons expected to be exported in 2024, half of which will go to India [6] - However, the implementation of India's BIS certification and increasing global trade tensions may further complicate export opportunities, with a significant drop in exports observed in June [6] Summary - The current fundamentals for PVC are weak, with potential for further downward pressure. However, if policies such as production limits are introduced, there may be a gradual reversal of the current weak pricing trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing significant challenges due to increased trade friction, weak demand, and a supply-demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and potential risks of further declines in the future [1][8]. Supply and Production - The spring maintenance has led to a noticeable increase in PVC maintenance, resulting in a significant drop in operating rates, which are now below 80%, with weekly production around 450,000 tons [4]. - The production pressure is temporarily alleviated due to ongoing maintenance plans, which are expected to keep operating rates at low levels [4]. Cost and Profitability - The PVC supply-demand imbalance is evident, with prices near a 10-year low, causing substantial profit compression for producers, leading to losses becoming the norm [5]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises that produce PVC are facing losses, particularly in the external procurement of calcium carbide, which is around 600 yuan/ton [5]. - The profitability of PVC and caustic soda has recently turned negative, indicating that cost support may gradually become more apparent [5]. Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has become a norm for PVC, with 80% of its downstream demand linked to the real estate sector, which is currently in a weak cycle [6]. - Despite recent stimulus policies aimed at the real estate market, the impact on PVC demand remains limited, with new construction data still showing weakness [6]. Export Trends - In March, China exported 360,000 tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with cumulative exports from January to March reaching 970,000 tons, up 56% year-on-year [7]. - However, increasing trade friction and higher import/export tariffs are expected to complicate future PVC exports, potentially diminishing the positive impact of exports on domestic supply-demand balance [7].