1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black commodity market is currently trading on weak reality and weak expectations, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. For both螺纹 and热卷, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment. For铁矿石, it is also recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. 螺纹、热卷 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, but it has limited impact on black commodities. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process, and May's economic data was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week,螺纹 production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand continued to decline on a month - on - month basis, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a narrow - range oscillation, trading volume is declining, and when prices fall, open interest increases, indicating that short - sellers are more active. There may be a second bottom - testing trend in the near future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the螺纹 steel主力 contract was 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.33% from last week; the closing price of the热轧卷板主力 contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.13% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill螺纹 steel production was 212.18 million tons, up 2.22% from last week; the热卷 production was 325.45 million tons, up 0.25% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory and螺纹 social inventory decreased, with a decline of 1.55% and 1.72% respectively; the热卷 social inventory decreased by 1.95% [2]. 2. 铁矿石 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water production is expected to decline further [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global shipments are at a relatively high level and are rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventory is slowing down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE铁矿石主力 contract was 702.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and up 1.01% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments were 1884 million tons, up 4.35% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments were 858.4 million tons, up 27.76% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13894.16 million tons, down 0.28% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory was 9401.45 million tons, down 1.07% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously consolidate the stability of the real - estate market, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and better meet the people's new expectations for "good houses" [6]. - According to Mysteel, Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of iron - water production. Due to insufficient iron - water, a corresponding螺纹 steel production line will be shut down during the same period [7]. - An executive of Brazilian mining giant Vale said that the iron - ore production of the Gelado project is expected to reach about 5 million tons in 2026, an increase from 2.5 million tons this year [8].

Summary of the Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate market in China, particularly the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in April 2025 and the implications of market trends for the upcoming months [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - The real estate market continued to show signs of bottoming out during the May Day holiday, with promotional activities by companies failing to address core issues, making a market turnaround unlikely in the short term [1][3]. - In April 2025, the supply of real estate decreased by 25% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in recent years. First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities generally experienced declines [1][4]. - Transaction volumes in 30 major cities fell by 26% month-on-month in April, with first-tier cities performing poorly and most second and third-tier cities also declining, although a few cities showed growth [1][6]. Sales and Inventory - The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in April 2025 decreased by 10% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, with leading companies experiencing a more significant decline of around 30% [2]. - New home absorption rates in first and second-tier cities generally declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, while Chengdu and Changsha performed well [1][7][8]. Land Acquisition Trends - Land acquisition by real estate companies improved significantly in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a 41% increase in total land acquisition amount and a 3.2% increase in area [10]. - The investment structure is increasingly concentrated in core cities, leading to rising land prices. The top ten companies showed a significant increase in land acquisition intensity, with the ratio of land acquisition amount to sales amount rising to 45% [11][12]. Market Expectations - The expectation for a "small spring" in the real estate market in 2025 is tempered, with predictions that the market will not be as hot as in 2024. The core issues remain unresolved, and the market is still in a bottoming phase [5]. - The second-hand housing market also showed signs of cooling, with significant declines in transaction volumes in major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [9][15]. Future Outlook - The new housing market is expected to replicate the trends of 2024 over the next 3 to 6 months, remaining at a low level. The second-hand market may perform slightly better due to sufficient supply, with potential for growth through price reductions [19]. - The phenomenon of "land kings" is expected to cool down in the second half of the year, as companies are advised to wait for more favorable conditions before making high-priced land acquisitions [14]. Additional Important Insights - The core cities' second-hand housing prices have shown slight increases post-policy adjustments, but there is significant internal differentiation, and overall price increases are under pressure due to rising inventory levels [15][18]. - The impact of macroeconomic factors, such as the US-China trade war, is anticipated to influence the real estate market, necessitating ongoing observation and adjustments [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the real estate market in China, highlighting both challenges and opportunities within the sector.